Wales, the Midlands & South West England Weather Discussion

[Snowyowl9]

Poor forecast on all the TV this past week on average,with the last couple of days and today in particular with only the odd shower forecast,or the best day of the weekened,not as I`m bothered,good to see the weather doing what it wants.

Had around 5 showers today two heavy,this NW-ly has been very showery lately,rained every day for the 10 days approx.

[MP-R]

Not sure if I remember that event. But looking back at the Wetterzentrale GFS chart archive, it seemed to show a secondary Low swinging up from the South-West and then crashing into the North-Sea on the 12th with a cold North-Westerly flow tucking in behind. So any rain that may have occurred here could have contained some back-edge snow or something. It's possible that the airmass at the start might have been cold enough for it to start as sleet or snow here. But like you, it probably would have had to rely on Evaporative Cooling by having heavy precipitation, as it looks fairly marginal.

 

Yes it was quite marginal, I'm sure if the rain was lighter there wouldn't have been a transition to snow. There was however just over 30mm of rain before it turned to snow and left 1-2cm from an hour or so of heavy fall before then clearing off and temperature falling overnight. It was an interesting day as the temperature was 5C on leaving the house in the morning but fell throughout the day and was barely 1C by the end of the day. The only snowfall here in all three of those winter months!

 

Another rain to snow event which actually gave a more substantial fall was overnight 18th/19th December 2004. It was raining when going to bed but in the morning there was a blanket of snow everywhere and more than 10cm on the top of the Mendip Hills.

Edited August 23, 2014 by MP-R

[whiskers]

Can't believe it's only 7 degrees here in south east wales! Had to put the heating on! Is it going to get colder?

[Costa Del Fal]

Lovely warm and sunny day in Crickhowell, Mid Wales today.

Edited August 23, 2014 by Costa Del Fal

[TonyH]

Showers have disappointingly raised it above 7c from an earlier 5, little chance now of getting toward zero.

[Dale Hay]

Absolutely lovely and nippy outside - still got my windows wide open.

Nearest three weather stations to me are showing:

ISOMERSE40 [2km] (06:12) - Temp: 7.5C - Feels: 5.6C - Dew: 5C

ISOMERSE42 [3km] (06:14) - Temp: 6.7C - Feels: 3.9C - Dew: 4C

ISOMERSE44 [4km] (06:17) - Temp: 6.0C - Feels: 4.2C - Dew: 6C

[knocker]

A fair bit of Ci earlier (as shown) but increasing rapidly now along with a sheet of Ac as the warm front approaches. You can easily see the warm, moist air on the Camborne 00z ascent. Temp 9C.

 

 

[Lyn-M]

4.0°C at 05.34, coldest August night since I started records here in 1999.  Up to 8.2 at the moment.

[conor123]

Overnight low of 5.5c here in the end, hazy sunshine this morning so far and 8.9c

[knocker]

Now a veil of Cs with some Ac.

[Cactus]

Overnight low of 5.6C here again but this morning is clear dry and bright with a temperature of 12.7C arise of 4.1C in the last hour.

Should be a dry day but with cloud increasing prior to the expected rain tonight.

Temperature 12.8C

Wind SSW gusting to 4mph

Pressure 1019mb and static

Humidity 91%

[Polar Maritime]

A grand morning here with clear sunny blue sky's, light winds. Temp 11.2c N/W 5.4mph. 

 

An overnight low of 6.8c.

[Costa Del Fal]

17 tops today in Wales you sure LOL..August? :)Must be the UV index.

Indeed, it was the strength of the sun that made it fortunately.

[Mapantz]

It got down to 5.8°C this morning. That matched my low last week, thought it may have gotten lower than that..

Currently sunny and 17.4°C

Just when you think there's some consistency..

[Mapantz]

Looking a tiny bit soggy then?

It seems like the MO are backing their own Euro4 model. They've updated their warning to cover a bigger area but they've lessened rainfall totals.

[Sainsbo]

Looks like there might be a few problems around tomorrow if the NMM and GFS are correct. 40-50mm quite widely, the most rain we've had in a day here since the floods in July 07 was 39mm in April 2012.

 

Quite surprised that the MetO warning page only says 15mm with up to 30mm in some places, but we shall see.

 

[Mapantz]

Looks like there might be a few problems around tomorrow if the NMM and GFS are correct. 40-50mm quite widely, the most rain we've had in a day here since the floods in July 07 was 39mm in April 2012.

 

Quite surprised that the MetO warning page only says 15mm with up to 30mm in some places, but we shall see.

 

I was questioning the same here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81167-wales-the-midlands-south-west-england-weather-discussion/?p=3028219

The NMM 18km, 14km, 6km and 4km charts all show discrepancies. The GFS is the only one with higher totals. The MO back their Euro4 model.

I'm wondering if the GFS is going for more of a convective element, bumping totals up? Primarily Dorset, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent for me..

[Sainsbo]

I was questioning the same here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81167-wales-the-midlands-south-west-england-weather-discussion/?p=3028219The NMM 18km, 14km, 6km and 4km charts all show discrepancies. The GFS is the only one with higher totals. The MO back their Euro4 model.I'm wondering if the GFS is going for more of a convective element, bumping totals up? Primarily Dorset, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent for me..

 

 

Even the Euro4 shows 50mm in places, albeit less widespread. It could be convection giving some larger ppn totals in places, I guess we'll have to wait for the 12z and see if there is a better consensus between them.

Edited August 24, 2014 by Sainsbo

[Polar Maritime]

Feels very pleasant here sat in the garden listening to the Cows..Feels warm in the long Sunny spells. Even the dogs fallen to sleep.

Edited August 24, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[MP-R]

Oddly, after an increasingly grey morning, the cloud has broken a bit this afternoon allowing for some sunny spells and, for the first time since I got back from abroad last weekend, it actually feels warm... yes... warm! What a difference to have lost that unseasonal northwesterly. No wind, higher humidity and sunshine - actually feels like summer.

[Wadey]

Afternoon from Dom rep, just popped in to say I saw the birth of cristobal however it's spelt pretty tasty through Friday night, still quite breezy now hope alls well back in the mids

P.s what's this about a weakened El Niño ? Fingers crossed for a decent winter ?

[TonyH]

This is turning into a remarkably prolonged spell of very cool Summer weather, a fortnight of temperatures failing to reach just 19c (average); 6 of the past 7 days not reaching 17c; mean maxima since 13th 16.4c; 5 of the past 6 nights below 7c.

Not something I have experienced in many a decade in August! Pretty dry and bright though.

[J10]

Rain not too far away now, looks a bit patchy but it's only the start. No surprises, feeling milder compared to late. Good splash of rain expected tomorrow oops, case of bad timing re BH etc.

 

Rain not too far away now, looks a bit patchy but it's only the start. No surprises, feeling milder compared to late. Good splash deluge of rain expected tomorrow oops, case of bad timing re BH etc.

 

Corrected your post.

[Evening thunder]

Low of 3.8c here this morning, not quite as low as the 20th that reached 3.4c or my August record of 3.0c in 2010. Probably partly due to some cloud coming in late in the night.

 

Some sunshine and brightness early but mainly cloudy thereafter, a max of 16.6c which is the coolest of this cool spell and the only sub-18c max here. In fact the coolest max since June the 4th.

 

The next thing will be to see how much rain we get from this system.

[BlueHedgehog074]

A fair sprinkling of weather warnings?

Their seems to be a splattering of yellow over us tomorrow on the Met Office's weather warnings.