Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[EML Network]

Use this one.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

 

I find this chart VERY interesting. 

 

If you go over all the LR Models that are out, the areas that they show to be above average for Winter for temperature seem to fall in line almost perfectly with the areas where the SST is warmer and the telling is by looking at the area of below average SST in the Mid North Atlantic. 

 

EVERY LRF Model has that area for below average temperatures this winter, it's as if they have simply taken this map and based their temperature anomaly on it, I have no faith what so ever in the LRF Pressure and temperature anomaly models this winter, I think they'll all be miles out. 

 

Not only does the temperature anomaly chart look similar to the SST chart, but the rainfall anomaly chart falls in line with it too, it's all a load of baloney !!..it can't be THAT simple !!

, 

If I am wrong then this Winter will be another mild one and I will start to wonder if we'll have to endure another decade of snowless winters down here like we did between the late 90's to the late 00's ...lets hope I am right and the LR Models are wrong

Edited November 4, 2014 by EML Network

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

I find this chart VERY interesting. 

 

If you go over all the LR Models that are out, the areas that they show to be above average for Winter for temperature seem to fall in line almost perfectly with the areas where the SST is warmer and the telling is by looking at the area of below average SST in the Mid North Atlantic. 

 

EVERY LRF Model has that area for below average temperatures this winter, it's as if they have simply taken this map and based their temperature anomaly on it, I have no faith what so ever in the LRF Pressure and temperature anomaly models this winter, I think they'll all be miles out. 

 

Not only does the temperature anomaly chart look similar to the SST chart, but the rainfall anomaly chart falls in line with it too, it's all a load of baloney !!..it can't be THAT simple !!

, 

If I am wrong then this Winter will be another mild one and I will start to wonder if we'll have to endure another decade of snowless winters down here like we did between the late 90's to the late 00's ...lets hope I am right and the LR Models are wrong

 

EML,

Yep I too have noticed this trend.

I have just been looking at the ECM monthly charts posted by Knocker on the operational thread.

It has exactly the balance you have described for its warm and cols anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere.

Why is this?

MIA

[John Badrick]

As promised, update from atyrau kazakhstan first snow of the season this morning. This is way ahead of last years first snow of December 3rd 2013. It was very mild  right the way through November 2013. This year has been notably different to 2013/14, similar to November 2010  

Edited November 4, 2014 by John Badrick

[throwoff]

 

Serious push down towards Georgia and the middle east.

 

Plus a huge swathe of Canada covered.

[radiohead]

2014 had the second highest October Eurasian snow cover anomaly in the past 47 years.

 

[TobyT]

2014 had the second highest October Eurasian snow cover anomaly in the past 47 years.

 

Well this is another piece of good news for a cold blocked winter, along with the OPI and a polar vortex at a weak state for the time of the year and other background signals such as QBO and so forth, I think this winter really could turn conventional forecasting models on their heads, thats not saying it is guaranteed to be a cold winter, as none us know what it will do yet but things sure are looking very interesting indeed and I think it could end up being notable in more ways than one.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

lots of snow progress to see 

 

 

 

 

Good to see it kicking off!

http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/weekend-storms-dump-early-snow-parts-u-s-n240461

 

Edited November 4, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[Ice Day]

Lot's of positivity around tonight, so to keep the mood going, here's today vs yesterday.  Some gains and losses around Russia, probably equalling each other out.  Big gains in Canada, particularly in Alberta and ice building nicely north west of Alaska around the Chukchi Sea..........and a few extra pixels in Scandi to boot!!!!

 

Yesterday v today

 

 

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Lot's of positivity around tonight, so to keep the mood going, here's today vs yesterday.  Some gains and losses around Russia, probably equalling each other out.  Big gains in Canada, particularly in Alberta and ice building nicely north west of Alaska around the Chukchi Sea..........and a few extra pixels in Scandi to boot!!!!

 

Yesterday v today

 

 

 

 

here more of what your saying!

 

 10days ice growth     closer look   yesterday/today    

 

As you can see work has started on the Greenland/Iceland 2014/15 Icebridge !! 

Edited November 4, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[Mark Neal.]

Some interesting gains once again! Positive

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Some interesting gains once again! Positive

Sure is! feels like the opposite of last years endless http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/nov/02/britain-storms-wind-rain

 

update more snow in Canada and Scandinavia  

 

...and north Africa! 

 

Eurasia changes 

Edited November 6, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[gottolovethisweather]

Remember this?

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81111-snow-and-ice-in-the-northern-hemisphere-autumnwinter-2014/?p=3057933

 

As mentioned in the final paragraph on my post above, dated 21st October, I want you to again focus on my hopes for the late Autumn and early Winter period forthcoming. The good news is that the pattern match most definitely remains and here's why I think we're highly likely to be onto something fascinating here. 

 

By continuing to take the trends from Mother Nature's superior Autumn bounty of nuts and fruits in 2014, which was only matched by 2012 in the past dozen or so years. You then add to this, the Arctic region has been exceptionally mild during October, reaching some +4c above average anomalies at times. I have to remain hopeful given the forecasted state of the PV and the current lazy meandering NH Jetstream setup amongst other factors, that November 2014 will remain on course to become a much colder month than would normally be expected. Of course cold rain and dreary skies won't float everybody's boat BUT snow will inevitably come to our shores eventually and although it will be a long haul, I'm expecting much excitement around this place from Mid-November onwards.

 

 

Oh, and here's the latest NH Snow and Ice imagery, enjoy!

 

 

For comparison here is last year's progression by the exact same date.

 

 

Now another look at the global view of the current situation.

 

 

For a comparison against 2012, we would like to witness something similar to the following chart. Given the state of the synoptics this time around, hopefully an EVEN BETTER snow and ice coverage. 

 

 

In less than 24 hours we will know where we are.   

 

Cheers 

 

gottolovethisweather

Edited November 7, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Neilsouth]

I could be wrong but there seems to be a lot less snow over NE,NW parts of the USA this year compared to last. Whereas there is more snow over many parts of Europe compared to last?

[KyleHenry]

I could be wrong but there seems to be a lot less snow over NE,NW parts of the USA this year compared to last. Whereas there is more snow over many parts of Europe compared to last?

True observation, the next ten day charts have serious Artic outbreak to US

[LincolnSnowstorm]

I could be wrong but there seems to be a lot less snow over NE,NW parts of the USA this year compared to last. Whereas there is more snow over many parts of Europe compared to last?

looks like you are right...but it could change! http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/usa?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next3to6days

 

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/europe?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next3days

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/europe?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next6days

 

 

 

 

http://www.inthesnow.com/snow-report/big-snowfalls-weekly-report/

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/polar-vortex-to-vist-central-u/36890008

Edited November 7, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[bluearmy]

I don't think you need worry about n American snowcover. Much of the continent is about to freeeeeze.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

I don't think you need worry about n American snowcover. Much of the continent is about to freeeeeze.

Ok eyes back on the prize! 

[KyleHenry]

Ok eyes back on the prize!

It's going to be quite a change most of Canada will fill as too Rockies, Central belt and towards East Coast

[LincolnSnowstorm]

It's going to be quite a change most of Canada will fill as too Rockies, Central belt and towards East Coast

Pretty impressive stuff as we wait on our side to get things to fall into place. 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/monster-storm-to-pound-bering/36927708

 

Short term https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81718-model-output-discussion-31102014-and-beyond/page-29#entry3065791

 

But its good that Scandinavia does looks better

     +1day  +2days

 

 

Alps doing well 

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/alps?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next3to6days

Edited November 10, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest weekly sea ice extent update is here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74411-arctic-ice-data-and-stats/?p=3066715

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Love comparing 2014 against the baseline long may it continue ..edit to give it a kicking! 

2010

2014

Edited November 10, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[cyclonic happiness]

Wow! Look at the amount of snow cover compared!    I really hope we can pull off a decent winter this year, or I might start believing in global warming again :-D

[Polar Maritime]

Yes exceptionally good snow cover this year, Very promising indeed.

[gottolovethisweather]

Wow! Look at the amount of snow cover compared!    I really hope we can pull off a decent winter this year, or I might start believing in global warming again :-D

 

I think you may have to believe in global warming, well even better to refer to it as climate changed as this year must surely be one of the most globally warm years, witnessed since records began. At least in my patch only August's CET bucked the warm trend, with the other nine months above average Temps all the way. Anyway, enough of that in the context of this thread, so here is something more relative.

 

Weather webcams to watch and perhaps bookmark for the darker days and evenings.

 

http://www.feratel.com/en/webcam-wetter.html

 

The above link provides an Eastern European perspective to things, whilst at the moment not having checked, I suspect you would have to hunt for any of the white stuff but it'll soon be arriving.

 

Maybe you fancy watching the Arctic ice melt or even commence on its rebuilding process, here is a North Pole webcam link.

 

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html

 

And the current state of play and upcoming forecast for back in the UK and parts of Europe, you could check the following for updates.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/Europe.htm

 

Not long now before the proper fun and games begin.

 

Cheers

 

gottolovethisweather

Edited November 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[SteveB]

Love comparing 2014 against the baseline long may it continue ..edit to give it a kicking! 

ims2010313_asiaeurope.gif 2010

ims2014313_asiaeurope.gif 2014

 

That is a monster amount of snow compared to 2010 both on our side and the States.

 

Really hope Western Europe can join the snow party this year.