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End of a tropical cyclone   Bertha has been declared extratropical by the NHC. The system has become embedded within a frontal zone extending from Nova Scotia to the Bahamas. An LLCC (low level circul

As a student to this fine science, that has got to be one of the most informative post I have had the pleasure of feasting my eyes over ( and I have feasted them over many other informative posts)Than

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I still feel like southwest are going to cop it and that the winds are going to be stronger than predicted so far  :bomb:  I've had a strange feeling ever

since Hurricane Bertha was mentioned

 

The 12z will be for an interesting read/look.......

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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I still feel like southwest are going to cop it and that the winds are going to be stronger than predicted so far  :bomb:  I've had a strange feeling ever

since Hurricane Bertha was mentioned

 

The 12z will be for an interesting read/look.......

We can do it I know we can! I am guessing looking at the models that we should see near 50 mph wind gusts here which is more like 70 mph - 80 mph in Winter.

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We can do it I know we can! I am guessing looking at the models that we should see near 50 mph wind gusts here which is more like 70 mph - 80 mph in Winter.

 

I'm going to do a wind and rain dance tonight lol  Wales and Ireland nicked enough of our storms the winter just gone, although we did get a couple real awesome ones to be fair....

 

Could cyclongenuius happen or a sting jet happen? (whatever they are)

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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Where will the worst winds and rain be in comparison to the low?

 

All i know is the worst winds will be in the southwest quadrant and then worst rain on the northern flank of the low....So it all depends where the low goes through I think....sorry to be vegue but no one seems to know for sure....

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The rain will generally be wrapped around to the north of the Low centre while the swathe of high winds wrapped to the south of the low centre. Of course this varies with the stage of development of the Storm.

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No what I mean is if say the low is over London for example, would the worst of the wind and rain be very close to London or say 40 miles each side of it, if that makes sense?

 

Edit: matty got in between!

Edited by Lauren
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Gosh those spirally wind charts do give the impression of much stronger winds than the isobar charts!

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ECM following GEM at t48 so its now GFS on its own for the depth of the low at t48

 

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GEM and ECM both deepen the low on Monday as it moves north

 

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So the question mark now is which of the models are right for Sunday its 2-1 against GFS currently with the low deepening as it begins to move either north or east of Scotland

 

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Edit: matty got in between!

 

Some guys have all the luck. :laugh:

 

Ex-bertha shows up better on the ECM UK view.

 

 

 

Some likely flooding issues especially in the areas that have received the "biblical" rain

of this afternoon.

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Thanks for the welcomes, yes, born in 1976 but never fortunate to experience that summer, 2003 was the best I remember.

Still here and waiting to make a decision on packing up tent.

Still a lot of uncertainty with the models. Will check again in the morning. Looks like ECM & GEM are now going for the northerly route.

Feeling a bit more relaxed about this, also wind charts do seem threatening,I seem to see them as isobars for some reason !!

Waves have picked up a lot this afternoon - something brewing I think, hopefully a nice warm wind, 30mph gusts and some nice 6 ft waves (fingers crossed) -just like August in 2011

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Thanks for the welcomes, yes, born in 1976 but never fortunate to experience that summer, 2003 was the best I remember. Still here and waiting to make a decision on packing up tent.Still a lot of uncertainty with the models. Will check again in the morning. Looks like ECM & GEM are now going for the northerly route.Feeling a bit more relaxed about this, also wind charts do seem threatening,I seem to see them as isobars for some reason !!Waves have picked up a lot this afternoon - something brewing I think, hopefully a nice warm wind, 30mph gusts and some nice 6 ft waves (fingers crossed) -just like August in 2011

Without running the risk of scare mongering, don't get too relaxed. The ECM doesn't take the track further north. The GFS mean still shows 50 to 60mph gusts around the Cornwall/Devon coasts and in to Wales. I would keep a close eye on the forecasts.
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Without running the risk of scare mongering, don't get too relaxed. The ECM doesn't take the track further north. The GFS mean still shows 50 to 60mph gusts around the Cornwall/Devon coasts and in to Wales. I would keep a close eye on the forecasts.

Well here in the middle of the South Coast I am hoping we get the rain and not the strong winds. The rain is very badly needed as we have had almost nothing since early June and the grass is a lovely shade of Khaki! Thankfully we are getting a steady gentle rain at the moment. Anyone else is welcome to the winds, please take them with my compliments!!! I have finally had my gate repaired by the landlord after it was torn off it's hinges in the February and March storms and my flowers are flourishing after having watered them 3 times a week for what seems like forever. Getting too old for all these watering cans!

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Another update in my blog after digesting the 12z output: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6068;sess=

 

2100 update 08/08/2014

 

Still the models disagree less than 48 hours away from when the centre of the depression formed from ex-Bertha makes landfall somewhere across the west of mainland UK on Sunday morning.

 

12z GFS takes the centre of the low up through the Irish Sea on Sunday morning and makes landfall across Cumbria around lunchtime before exiting over SE Scotland into the North Sea, the centre on land crossing circa 985mb, so fairly deep for the time of year. It shows wind gusts of 40-60mph over coasts and hills of SW England, Wales and northern England - perhaps more on the lee side of the Pennines and mountains of N Wales, plus funnel effect of valleys. 30-40mph gusts further south and east. Rainfall totals of 50mm+ across southern Ireland, 20-30mm max across Wales and N England.

 

ECMWF, on the other hand, takes the low centre, a shallower feature, NE across S England, exiting The Wash into the N Sea around 995mb. Winds and rainfall totals less, but still appreciable to make Sunday a windy wash out across much of England and Wales. Met Office T+48 fax chart for noon Sunday is in between ECM and GFS tracks but closer to the ECM depth with 996mb, so perhaps this maybe the best compromise for the likely track for now.

 

GFS indicates a convective element to this storm system, with instability and strong wind shear in the warm sector just ahead of the cold front sweeping east - so there is a risk of organised embedded storms, perhaps supercells, which could produce their own severe weather in the form of strong convective gusts, large hail and even a tornado or two ... I will look into this scenario in a storm forecast to be issued nearer the time.

Edited by Nick F
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12z NMM has the worst of the winds affecting parts of Wales on Sunday morning before the LP tracks across Northern England in the afternoon.

 

.

 

 

LP centered directly over me Sunday evening!

 

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I've just seen the bbc weather and it seems the low looks slightly further south than gfs seems to want to take it. To my poorly sighted eyes it seems to take the low along the channel then out through south east in North Sea then up north....winds didn't seem all that bad, barely any gales really, just very breezy, rain seems to be the main issue....we'll see what tomorrow brings

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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It seems that the BBC are saying just blustery with rain being the main feature, others on this forum saying otherwise.... So basically no one knows  :cc_confused: Also I have family who are flying in Sunday evening to Gatwick, what do the reckon the winds will be like here on Sunday???Thanks in advance for the help  :good:

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