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Could be some flying tents around, come Sunday then.

There has been a lot of fine weather around this summer. This is potentially interesting, and caused me to awaken from my summer slumber

Or it could all just end up as a storm in a tea cup

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End of a tropical cyclone   Bertha has been declared extratropical by the NHC. The system has become embedded within a frontal zone extending from Nova Scotia to the Bahamas. An LLCC (low level circul

As a student to this fine science, that has got to be one of the most informative post I have had the pleasure of feasting my eyes over ( and I have feasted them over many other informative posts)Than

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+100,000 attending the Bloodstock fest near Derby this weekend, sure could make for a interesting day on Sunday for those attending, depending on where Bertha ends up.

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The Met Office have updated their warnings today.

I have also have marked some words in bold or underline.

Yellow Warning Of Rain

 

Issued at: 
1057 on Fri 8 Aug 2014
 
Valid from: 
0015 on Sun 10 Aug 2014
 
Valid to: 
2345 on Sun 10 Aug 2014
 
There is the potential for severe weather over much of the UK during Sunday as a depression tracks over, or close to, the UK. There continues to be a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast but the public should be aware of the risk of flooding due to heavy rain as well as very strong winds and large waves, particularly on the southern side of the depression. Given the unseasonable nature of the weather this could be sufficient to disrupt transport and make outdoor activities dangerous. 
 
This is a particularly volatile situation, and this alert is likely to be updated as the event approaches. The public are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and alerts through the weekend. 
 
The remains of hurricane Bertha, over the mid-Atlantic on Friday morning, are now changing to a attain the characteristics of a mid-latitude depression, albeit with very warm air wrapped up within it. This feature looks to move towards the UK before deepening rapidly on Saturday night and Sunday morning. The transition from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast but there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK, though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity. 
 
There is the potential for rainfall totals of more than 50 mm in places and coastal gusts of over 60 mph, along with large waves. The locations affected are very dependent on the track of the low but the heaviest rainfall is thought most likely around and to the Northwest of the low centre whilst the strongest winds are most likely around the southern flank of the low.
 
Edited by Skulltheruler
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The Met Office have updated their warnings today.

I have also have marked some words in bold or underline.

Yellow Warning Of Rain

 

Issued at: 
1057 on Fri 8 Aug 2014
 
Valid from: 
0015 on Sun 10 Aug 2014
 
Valid to: 
2345 on Sun 10 Aug 2014
 
There is the potential for severe weather over much of the UK during Sunday as a depression tracks over, or close to, the UK. There continues to be a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast but the public should be aware of the risk of flooding due to heavy rain as well as very strong winds and large waves, particularly on the southern side of the depression. Given the unseasonable nature of the weather this could be sufficient to disrupt transport and make outdoor activities dangerous. 
 
This is a particularly volatile situation, and this alert is likely to be updated as the event approaches. The public are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and alerts through the weekend. 
 
The remains of hurricane Bertha, over the mid-Atlantic on Friday morning, are now changing to a attain the characteristics of a mid-latitude depression, albeit with very warm air wrapped up within it. This feature looks to move towards the UK before deepening rapidly on Saturday night and Sunday morning. The transition from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast but there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK, though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity. 
 
There is the potential for rainfall totals of more than 50 mm in places and coastal gusts of over 60 mph, along with large waves. The locations affected are very dependent on the track of the low but the heaviest rainfall is thought most likely around and to the Northwest of the low centre whilst the strongest winds are most likely around the southern flank of the low.
 

 

It's interesting that they haven't issued a wind warning.

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The Met Office have updated their warnings today.

I have also have marked some words in bold or underline.

Yellow Warning Of Rain

 

Issued at: 
1057 on Fri 8 Aug 2014
 
Valid from: 
0015 on Sun 10 Aug 2014
 
Valid to: 
2345 on Sun 10 Aug 2014
 
There is the potential for severe weather over much of the UK during Sunday as a depression tracks over, or close to, the UK. There continues to be a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast but the public should be aware of the risk of flooding due to heavy rain as well as very strong winds and large waves, particularly on the southern side of the depression. Given the unseasonable nature of the weather this could be sufficient to disrupt transport and make outdoor activities dangerous. 
 
This is a particularly volatile situation, and this alert is likely to be updated as the event approaches. The public are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and alerts through the weekend. 
 
The remains of hurricane Bertha, over the mid-Atlantic on Friday morning, are now changing to a attain the characteristics of a mid-latitude depression, albeit with very warm air wrapped up within it. This feature looks to move towards the UK before deepening rapidly on Saturday night and Sunday morning. The transition from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast but there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK, though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity. 
 
There is the potential for rainfall totals of more than 50 mm in places and coastal gusts of over 60 mph, along with large waves. The locations affected are very dependent on the track of the low but the heaviest rainfall is thought most likely around and to the Northwest of the low centre whilst the strongest winds are most likely around the southern flank of the low.
 

 

 

It's interesting that they haven't issued a wind warning.

 

I bet the met office will do a wind warning once closer to the time and when the confidence is higher.

 

The NOAA too has Bertha taking a northerly track too (so Coming from the south west)

 

Posted Image

 

I think Bertha may not go through the English channel. 

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I bet the met office will do a wind warning once closer to the time and when the confidence is higher.

 

The NOAA too has Bertha taking a northerly track too (so Coming from the south west)

 

Posted Image

 

I think Bertha may not go through the English channel. 

 

 

The BBC too saying Bertha is less likely to hit France.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/28705209

It defenitely looks more encouraging for storm lovers, the track on the GFS is a bit far N for my liking but who knows.

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Met currently show the centre off the Channel Isles at 12z Sunday tracking NE to exit the east coast just south of the Wash, see Fax links below,

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72

these charts will be updated through the day and into tomorrow so worth bookmarking to see how any changes show for the same times as on the output between 0500 and the current T+72 chart for 00z Monday.

 

We can all try and beat Exeter but at the end of the day the most probable centre position and depth is going to come from one of these charts. Whether the current output or updates today or tomorrow will be the closes we can look back later on Monday to find out. Will GFS be a better guide than Met or ECMWF, no one knows at the moment, the next update on video from the senior man should be interesting. Remember the charts shown with UK Met stamp on them are NOT necessarily all UK Met. I suspect that at least one shown yesterday was the GFS output.

A very interesting period for weather fans to watch.

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The NMM14 shows gusts around 40 - 50mph for many western and southern areas, with the heaviest rain in the west. In fact, it shows barely and rain here at all. The NMM4 only goes to 9am on Sunday, but it has it further west, heaviest rain in some western areas and across Ireland, a bit like the GFS.

What a mess. lol

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The NMM14 shows gusts around 40 - 50mph for many western and southern areas, with the heaviest rain in the west. In fact, it shows barely and rain here at all. The NMM4 only goes to 9am on Sunday, but it has it further west, heaviest rain in some western areas and across Ireland, a bit like the GFS.What a mess. lol

Please can you tell me where you get this NMM4 from?

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If it goes further north it will be a non news event if if stays on the south track it will be a major event

I detect the beginnings of the ol' north v south argument when it comes to storms. Please don't start that nonsense here.
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If it goes further north it will be a non news event if if stays on the south track it will be a major event

Here we go again..

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The track of Bertha is still undecided by the models. The differences in them are still large but lets take a look at what the GFS, ECM and UKMO say in a quick map I've made below showing their tracks,

 

post-6686-0-99385700-1407497839_thumb.pn

 

The GFS seems keen on keeping it to the North while the UKMO goes for it tracking across the very far South and the ECM is in between them.

 

So what do the other models say? Both the JMA and GEM models show something similar to the UKMO, they track it along the far South as well. NAVGEM agrees with the ECM. It would seem the UKMO has good support behind it from the other models. The ECM has some support but the GFS at the moment doesn't have much backing it.

 

Now lets take a look at what the GFS, ECM and UKMO show.

 

GFS 0z run has the low tracking across Southern Ireland and into Northern England. It brings wind gusts of 35 to 45mph but in exposed places over 50mph would be likely. It also brings heavy rain to Ireland, Wales and England.

 

post-6686-0-88016200-1407498483_thumb.pn

 

post-6686-0-72450000-1407498507_thumb.pn

 

GFS 06z run has the low tracking a bit more further North than the earlier 0z run. This puts the wind speeds up a lot more with 50 to 60mph gusts for Southern Ireland and Wales. Northern England gets something slightly lower around 45 to 55mph gusts. Heavy rain moves over the whole country through out the day but its Ireland that see's the worse.

 

post-6686-0-84956900-1407498756_thumb.pn

 

post-6686-0-80396600-1407498849_thumb.pn

 

ECM 0z shows the low at 9am to the South of Wales with winds around 35 to 50mph for the South West of England,

 

post-6686-0-04084000-1407499124_thumb.pn

 

By 12pm the low is now over the Midlands and strong winds of 30 to 45mph move across Southern England.

 

post-6686-0-28908500-1407499215_thumb.pn

 

3pm the low has moved up to Northern England which moves the strong winds to Eastern England now at 25 to 40mph.

 

post-6686-0-95348100-1407499323_thumb.pn

 

UKMO 0z shows probably the least windiest out of the three. It shows gusts over 20mph for most places near the low as it passes by.

 

post-6686-0-88425000-1407499523_thumb.pn

 

But it does show either heavy rain showers or heavy rain affecting almost everywhere in the UK during Sunday.

 

post-6686-0-33827500-1407499745_thumb.pn

 

Overall the track of Bertha is still undecided between the models at the moment where the ECM or UKMO places the track of Bertha seems the most likely. The GFS and ECM show us that if it does track further North heavy rain and very strong winds will be a big issue for many however if it does track a lot more further South like the UKMO does the wind won't be much of a problem at all but either way they all agree on heavy rain will be a issue.

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Still got a fuuny feeling this is going to track even further south down into france. But time will tell i guess. Certainly think sunday may yet turn out reasonable for some areas.

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