Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 615
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

End of a tropical cyclone   Bertha has been declared extratropical by the NHC. The system has become embedded within a frontal zone extending from Nova Scotia to the Bahamas. An LLCC (low level circul

As a student to this fine science, that has got to be one of the most informative post I have had the pleasure of feasting my eyes over ( and I have feasted them over many other informative posts)Than

Posted Images

If this was September we would be saying the first storm of the autumn. Going to interesting how this is going to develop and it's intensity will certainly have an effect on how next week spans out and whether it feels like autumn or not.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Quick update in my blog from me following the 12z guidance:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6068;sess=

 

2130 update 07/08/2014

 

The models are still struggling to come to a consensus with their 12z output today over the track of Ex Bertha. 12z GFS still continues to take the depression over to the cold side of the strong Atlantic westerly jet stream just west of the UK and under the developmental left exit region, allowing a rapid deepening into an intense depression, tracking NE through the Irish Sea and over southern Scotland, bringing exceptionally strong winds for the time of year, along with heavy rain across many areas. 12z ECMWF and HIRLAM take the depression further south, without engagement on the cold side of the jet, rather the low runs harmlessly east over northern France, making it a non-event on Sunday, bar some heavy rain or showers moving across S England and E Anglia.

 

The updated T+72 Met Office fax chart for noon Sunday agrees with the ECMWF and Hirlam track across northern France.

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Updated t+72 fax for 12z Sunday ... again looks similar to current ECMWF:

 

post-1052-0-04392300-1407445111_thumb.gi

 

Quite a few of the 12z ECMWF EPS going for a deeper depression a little further north, suggesting possibility of engagement as per GFS, so we're not out the woods yet by any means:

 

post-1052-0-63043600-1407445339_thumb.gi

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

"No need to batten down the hatches - post-tropical storm Bertha is likely to miss the UK, forecasters have said."

So is it not going to effect us now then???

There is a chance that Bertha could miss us and go to France but I think it's more likely to hit the uk but we shall see.
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Quick update in my blog from me following the 12z guidance:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6068;sess=

 

2130 update 07/08/2014

 

 

 

The updated T+72 Met Office fax chart for noon Sunday agrees with the ECMWF and Hirlam track across northern France.

Not sure about that Nick; simply tracking the 00z and 12z charts on Fax for Sunday suggests, even without any deepening, that it will be over SE England 6-12 hours later. IF it does begin to get close to the left exit region then it could be somewhat further NW and I suspect it will exit England anywhere between E Anglia and NE England?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Iam still going for Bertha to hit us from the southwest.

Even though that a met office fax, ecmwf and maybe other minor models going for France and possibly going through the south east of England as it exits the uk or the english channel.

However with STILL uncertainty about the track,strength,rain,wind or even the storm making it here is still yet to be decided.

So hopefully things sort out tomorrow.

Link to post
Share on other sites

As of 0530 this morning UKMO says Bertha (will be renamed Penbertha if crossing Cornwall) MAY bring strong winds and rain to southern areas on Sunday. The 00 GFS on the other hand is still running with this scenario.

 

0009 Bertha WSW UK, roughly 45n 25w 1002mb

 

0010 Bertha  SWS Ireland 996mb

 

1210 Bertha now over the Isle of Man 992mb. Moderate rain over most of England with strong NW winds in SW.

 

0011 Bertha now just east of Aberdeen 984mb with heavy rain in n. Scotland and strong NW.W winds over the northern Britain.

 

Here endeth the lesson according to the GFS but it must be emphasised this still not a done deal by any means.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, not really sure what to make of this, I can't believe the forecasts are still confused with only 2 days away now. To be honest, this looks like a non-event, not very happy with this obviously. Just a bit of wind maybe touching gale force but that's quite normal in Summer anyway and just a bit of rain. Nothing to get worried about.

Link to post
Share on other sites

So could we be looking at similar set up like ex Hurricane Charlie from 1986?

That's the worst August day I can ever remember especially as it hit on a bank holiday weekend

Yeah, maybe though I wasn't born then.

Anyway, the WRF-NMM wind gust chart looks encouraging. Wind gusts shown here widely of 45 - 55 mph with 60 mph possible somewhere even inland.

Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, not really sure what to make of this, I can't believe the forecasts are still confused with only 2 days away now. To be honest, this looks like a non-event, not very happy with this obviously. Just a bit of wind maybe touching gale force but that's quite normal in Summer anyway and just a bit of rain. Nothing to get worried about.

 

I find this sentiment extremely perverse.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I find this sentiment extremely perverse.

Well I was just backing it up incase we all get excited and nothing happens with COULD happen, especially with the Met Office and BBC suggesting a path through the English Channel as being quite likely.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

So could we be looking at similar set up like ex Hurricane Charlie from 1986?That's the worst August day I can ever remember especially as it hit on a bank holiday weekend

 

Yes I remember it well, I was living on Anglesey at the time.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, maybe though I wasn't born then.Anyway, the WRF-NMM wind gust chart looks encouraging. Wind gusts shown here widely of 45 - 55 mph with 60 mph possible somewhere even inland.Posted Image

Sorry, First post on here despite watching for years.

But the wind chart shown is what has prompted me.

Not got great reception here as camping with wife and 3 kids on exposed coastline in sand dunes at Hayle Cornwall. Just spent first week here, and to be honest the track of this low is playing on my mind, don't think my pop up camper could take 50mph gusts ???. Is this worth packing up and ruining the family holiday or am I just panicking from reading all the worst case possibilities ? a 60% chance is not much help, when would I have a clear idea with this sort of set up and we

and the best place to look for updates?

- Thanks in advance, (will post back when I have next got reception on mobile)

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry, First post on here despite watching for years.But the wind chart shown is what has prompted me.Not got great reception here as camping with wife and 3 kids on exposed coastline in sand dunes at Hayle Cornwall. Just spent first week here, and to be honest the track of this low is playing on my mind, don't think my pop up camper could take 50mph gusts ???. Is this worth packing up and ruining the family holiday or am I just panicking from reading all the worst case possibilities ? a 60% chance is not much help, when would I have a clear idea with this sort of set up and weand the best place to look for updates?- Thanks in advance, (will post back when I have next got reception on mobile)

Welcome to the forum, 1976!I am surprised at how uncertain things still are with just 2 days until it hits SW England. But, I would say to get a definite forecast of this storm, I would wait till this time tomorrow and then if models still show what I posted, then we could be in for a nasty spell of weather on Sunday. Even if we don't get the wind, many charts are hinting at a very wet spell of weather with rainfall totals widely above 40 mm leading to at least localised flooding so it's something to watch but not for much longer.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Met Office have warnings out to "be aware" and at this stage that is exactly what the general public need to be. There is still uncertainty about it's track and so the Met Office are right to put out yellow warnings, even if it ends up heading down the channel and bears little effect on the UK. If this does happen then the Met Office were not wrong (i am sure we will get somebody posting this fact at some place across the forum) as the warning to be aware would have still been valid. It may only be 2 days away but the system is still a thousand miles away in the Atlantic, another 24 hours and we should have a much better grasp on its path.

 

1976 (great year, it was the year i was born :)) welcome to the forum. I wouldn't be packing up any holidays yet, if the storm heads on the northern track (i.e. affecting a swathe of the UK) then I would expect the met office to issue Amber warnings - this is the point where you would need to consider packing up and heading off. This in addition to any warnings from valid forecasters on netweather.

 

By valid forecaster I mean a proper alert issued from one of the netweather forecasters not somebody ramping up one run of one model on the general forum.

Edited by Supacell
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry, First post on here despite watching for years.But the wind chart shown is what has prompted me.Not got great reception here as camping with wife and 3 kids on exposed coastline in sand dunes at Hayle Cornwall. Just spent first week here, and to be honest the track of this low is playing on my mind, don't think my pop up camper could take 50mph gusts ???. Is this worth packing up and ruining the family holiday or am I just panicking from reading all the worst case possibilities ? a 60% chance is not much help, when would I have a clear idea with this sort of set up and weand the best place to look for updates?- Thanks in advance, (will post back when I have next got reception on mobile)

 

I would definitely hang fire for 24 hours and keep a close eye on the METO output. Your main problem would be if it took the GFS track as the NW winds in the SW quadrant could well be above 50mph and the Towans are very exposed in that direction. But it's still up in the air and things may even be a little clearer after the 12 runs but I wouldn't bank on it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...