storm bertha Possible storm 'Bertha'

[William Grimsley]

As much as I believe many of us here on nw are particularly interested in severe weather, I for one would be happy to see the UK escape the worst of it, coming as it does at the weekend in the peak holiday season. A lot of families will be out and about, many of them on their annual holidays and a fair percentage of them will be down in the West Country.

 

I had the misfortune to be on a camping holiday in that part of the country with my very young family when the Fastnet storm hit in August 1979. It was horrendous and completely wrecked what was our only holiday in years. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

I totally am with you there on that but it's very rare that we see such severe weather and it has come at the wrong time but you probably won't see something like this for quite a while again in Summer.

[TonyH]

I totally am with you there on that but it's very rare that we see such severe weather and it has come at the wrong time but you probably won't see something like this for quite a while again in Summer.

On the contrary we get ex hurricane remnants quite often in August, not every year but regularly.

[Lauren]

Latest BBC forecast says low to track from South Wales to the Wash with heaviest rain to affect Midlands and Southern counties.

[scotteboi]

Is it too early to rename the thread 'Possibly a little bit windy and rainy on Sunday' ! ;-)

Was hoping for something a little better than what is estimated at present....BUT, it's not here yet, and tbh if it does throw a few surprises, which it could given the fact that no main agency has stuck their neck out given the variables even at this short timescale...then all good, if not at least the possibility was there....and we still have the autumnal months for some gale/rain events (as if we didn't get enough last year!!)

[Lauren]

People are panic buying according to the Twitter feed. Seriously......

[Chris K]

Well, I am not sure, but the rain at least seems to be arriving earlier than what I expected this morning. Originally attending the Bristol Balloon Fiesta night glow tonight looked generally dry, but now looking at the radar and Ian F's latest "tweet"...rain is now likely at times. Looks like I am getting a bit damp!

 

 

People are panic buying according to the Twitter feed. Seriously......

 

 

I blame the media. One particular paper as usual labelling it as "terrifying". 

 

We have had much, much worse in recent Summers.

Edited August 9, 2014 by Chris K

[Lauren]

Also the BBC Weather Twitter feed illustrates quite well that we will see heavy rain first, followed by the strong wind.

[Polar Bear]

As much as I believe many of us here on nw are particularly interested in severe weather, I for one would be happy to see the UK escape the worst of it, coming as it does at the weekend in the peak holiday season. A lot of families will be out and about, many of them on their annual holidays and a fair percentage of them will be down in the West Country. I had the misfortune to be on a camping holiday in that part of the country with my very young family when the Fastnet storm hit in August 1979. It was horrendous and completely wrecked what was our only holiday in years. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

Fair points bluebreezer. Although at a chilli festival today and was surprised to hear many stall owners say that they were going to prob pack up tonight as didn't wish to risk it. That was because of what a fair few visitors were saying. So I do wonder if many out there are taking heed to change family places tomorrow. I suspect the indoor swimming pool near me will be busy tomorrow ! Lol.

[Polar Bear]

Mind you looking at my forecast for tomorrow seems it will be all over n done by lunchtime when out pops the sun again! Great. Long lie in tomorrow!

[Polar Bear]

Oh looks like Southsea Thai food festival is canceled tomorrow how on account of Bertha's tail feathers .. Prob a good thing really.

[Sean19]

I'm looking forward to an estofex tonight, if there isn't one, then I will be disappointed. Do they do forecasts for this type of weather?

[Captain Shortwave]

Analysis of the met-office or any other organisations should be surely debated after the event, not before Bertha has even arrived.

Please keep things civil in here, thankyou

Edited August 9, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[stevofunnelcl]

ex-tropical storm, the big problem is always going to be the rain

 

trouble is gathering on the radar now, to the south-west approaches, spilling in across the south-west

 

Sunbathing weather... it won't be

[Lauren]

Reports on Twitter of very heavy rain and strong winds in Cornwall now.

[ThunderBuddy21]

On the contrary we get ex hurricane remnants quite often in August, not every year but regularly.

I said the exact same thing in my regional thread the other day and got a rather hostile response saying that no we do not get remnants of hurricanes and that I should educate myself more on te workings of our weather!!Would jist like to thank you fo validating my correctness lol

[Polar Bear]

Reports on Twitter of very heavy rain and strong winds in Cornwall now.

Which twitter feed Lauren? The one I got was pretty bland..

[Bluebreezer54]

Analysis of the met-office or any other organisations should be surely debated after the event, not before Bertha has even arrive.

Please keep things civil in here, thankyou

Captain, unless posts here are being deleted without notification then it looks as though they are perfectly civil ?

[Lauren]

Just the #Bertha one.

 

Looking at the latest track I think the SE Corner could miss out actually, assuming it is going to curve up.

[Arnie Pie]

I`m guessing that the tightening of the upper wind vectors behind the main ppn is were the low will start to develop

 

 

Not visible on satalite atm

 

or

 

Edited August 9, 2014 by Arnie Pie

[coldfingers]

Fair points bluebreezer. Although at a chilli festival today and was surprised to hear many stall owners say that they were going to prob pack up tonight as didn't wish to risk it. That was because of what a fair few visitors were saying. So I do wonder if many out there are taking heed to change family places tomorrow. I suspect the indoor swimming pool near me will be busy tomorrow ! Lol.

 

High PB, hope you are keeping well.

Was the Chilli festival  at West Dean Gardens by any chance? Net weather 7 day forecast is only showing a maximum of 38mph wind here which is most likely only to be a gust not sustained wind I reckon. We do look to be getting many hours of heavy rain though which pleases me as we so badly need it in Bognor Regis. Grass was getting way too brown.

[Bluebreezer54]

On the contrary we get ex hurricane remnants quite often in August, not every year but regularly.

Can you give some examples of this please TonyH because I think these are fairly few and far between. ?  Off to do some research on that now, but I doubt there have been more than 4 or 5 in the last 30 years, so hardly regular.

 

It's a genuine question and if you can point me in the right direction for the research I would appreciate it.

[pad199207]

Bertha has seemed to have spawned numerous storms across Ireland this afternoon as she moved in

[Lauren]

She seems to be coming through a lot earlier than expected or is that just be reading the satellite image wrong or is she due to slow down as she hits mainland?

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

She seems to be coming through a lot earlier than expected or is that just be reading the satellite image wrong or is she due to slow down as she hits mainland?

She does look as if she's here earlier than thought.

[Nick F]

Is it me or has GFS edged ever so slightly further SE in track over the last few runs? Seem to be converging on a track of the low centre that the MetO faxes have been sticking to over last few days from SW England up through Midlands and out into N Sea over E England. Be interesting to see if the ECM edges further north, it and Hirlam have been languishing further south with track so far.

 

Some large rainfall totals from 12z NMM across NE Scotland between 12z Sun and 12z Mon ... 70mm+ in a few spots in the 24hr period. as the low moves north off the east coast of Scotland with its wrap around occlusion hanging around N Scotland.

 

Edited August 9, 2014 by Nick F