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Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>


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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Very interesting setup potentially with Bertha! those sorts of CAPE values with high shear could well pack a punch!

    Yesterday, while Peterborough was being skirted with storms, the town of March in Cambridgeshire got totally flooded out due to the sheer intensity of the rain over such a long time! Just showed how local it really was though as the skies looked the same all around! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    I see posts are still being deleted, without anyone being notified why ?

    where?....nothing flagging as having been deleted?

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Just had 3 minutes of very intense rain here on west mendip ,actually about 20 min ago ,the main area of persistant rain approaching from the s west ,and tomorrow could produce some very intense downpours ,rain looks the main troublemaker ,any winds of note further south and south east ,a very blustery day on monday with longer spells of rain and perhaps some slow moving downpours later in the day ,FLAT calm here right now looks like an interesting spell of weather coming up .

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Looks like a bit of action for Chesterfield again some lightning on Net-weather extra.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

    where?....nothing flagging as having been deleted?

    Deleted by bb54

    Edited by Bluebreezer54
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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    Ihatecoldweathers recent post ?

    I'll have a look and get back to you via pm

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    Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

    Dark skies to my SW, looks like it will just be a passing shower this time however 

     

    We must have racked up some pretty impressive rainfall totals over the last couple of days in this area! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    Think the main chunk of rain looks to be missing the SE corner.

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    I see posts are still being deleted, without anyone being notified why ?

    They are not obliged to notify you

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

    I'll have a look and get back to you via pm

    Appreciate that thanks AJ

    They are not obliged to notify you

    Yes they are according to their recent information

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    here's the latest snapshot of the current v4 radar compared with the modeled rainfall from the NMM 12z output......still some isolated thunderstorms over Ireland, but no sferic detections at present from Bertha

     

    all images © netweather.tv

     

    post-4149-0-01336600-1407612621_thumb.pn  post-4149-0-18595200-1407612658_thumb.pn

    Edited by ajpoolshark
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts
  • Weather Preferences: Rain/snow, fog, gales and cold in every season
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts

    Looks like a bit of action for Chesterfield again some lightning on Net-weather extra.

    I noticed that too, Pit. It was a few miles south west of me on the map but I didn't hear any thunder. Some heavy rain in the last half hour though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Just started raining here can't see the moors so maybe fairly heavy here in a bit.

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    Looks like she's splitting.

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol

    This made me raise an eyebrow? Is there really that much chance? Sounds rather extreme if you read the description!

     

    By UKWeather Scientific (formerly MetMonkey)

     

    We have issued a RED warning for Severe Thunderstorms as Bertha approaches England and Wales on Sunday. There is the likelihood of some particularly severe or even extreme weather conditions on Sunday, so please take extra care.

     

    And a cherry picked quote....

     

    "To give some insight into the potential severity of this event it could well be classified as a high-end level 2 Estofex or even a low-end level 3."

     

    http://www.weatherscientific.co.uk/2014/08/09/sunday-10th-august-red-warning-for-severe-thunderstorms-20-for-england-wales/

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Chris K
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    Posted
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Clear and Frosty/Snow Showers
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5

    Yes very dark skies to the north of me,and we've had a few spots of rain.Thought I saw a distant flash of lightning around half an hour ago.The skies to the south look stormy too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    This made me raise an eyebrow? Is there really that much chance? Sounds rather extreme if you read the description!

     

    By UKWeather Scientific (formerly MetMonkey)

     

    We have issued a RED warning for Severe Thunderstorms as Bertha approaches England and Wales on Sunday. There is the likelihood of some particularly severe or even extreme weather conditions on Sunday, so please take extra care.

     

    And a cherry picked quote....

     

    "To give some insight into the potential severity of this event it could well be classified as a high-end level 2 Estofex or even a low-end level 3."

     

    http://www.weatherscientific.co.uk/2014/08/09/sunday-10th-august-red-warning-for-severe-thunderstorms-20-for-england-wales/

     

     

     

    I think a level 3 from Estofex is a bit far fetched but reading the discussions over on UKWW with Tony Gilbert and others it does look interesting with the possibility of a long track strong (by the UK's standards) tornado. NMM currently showing near 2000j/kg of CAPE and a LI of -8 across parts of the Midlands!

    Edited by Supacell
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

    I think a level 3 from Estofex is a bit far fetched but reading the discussions over on UKWW with Tony Gilbert and others it does look interesting with the possibility of a long track strong (by the UK's standards) tornado. NMM currently showing near 2000j/kg of CAPE and a LI of -8 across parts of the Midlands!

    SE midlands or in general? no access to charts atm, but guessing they're being shown as embedded storms, is there a time frame being shown (mainly my area or within 30 mins casing distance) that they are likely to be around

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    SE midlands or in general? no access to charts atm, but guessing they're being shown as embedded storms, is there a time frame being shown (mainly my area or within 30 mins casing distance) that they are likely to be around

     

    The highest CAPE looks to be running in a line from Bristol channel to the Wash so perhaps just south of mine and your area but close enough to chase should this track prove correct. Quick chart from netweather extra just to illustrate. 

     

    post-2719-0-44294800-1407616211_thumb.pn

     

    You can probably imagine the track from this image. Timing looks to bring it into the Midlands around late morning through to early afternoon before it heads in to Lincolnshire/Cambridgeshire.

     

    Personally I am hoping for it to track just a little north of this, but it may all be pointless anyway as I feel trying to decide exactly where thunderstorms may form in such a volatile scenario is very difficult at this stage. They may not even materialise, or may materialise somewhere different from where models indicate. Once a storm develops, if it does, then tracking will be easier as it will likely hold together right up to the east coast considering the amounts of shear available throughout the vertical profile.

    Edited by Supacell
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    Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

    Id take that forecast with a pinch of salt Chris

    Never seen our area with a thunderstorm risk like that before.

    don't get me wrong if it was to come off then it would be amazing for sure.

    I think at best we might get a couple of rumbles not expecting any proper thunderstorms though when you read some posts its hard not to get a little excited.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

    The highest CAPE looks to be running in a line from Bristol channel to the Wash so perhaps just south of mine and your area but close enough to chase should this track prove correct. Quick chart from netweather extra just to illustrate. 

     

    http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifCAPE.png

     

    You can probably imagine the track from this image. Timing looks to bring it into the Midlands around late morning through to early afternoon before it heads in to Lincolnshire/Cambridgeshire.

    i see, well if things are looking decent i may take a drive down the a5 tomorrow and hope to catch something a little further SE, shame no real cloud structure would be able to be viewed due to the abundance of cloud Bertha will bring

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    Hmm, worth chasing tomorrow then? I shall keep my eye on the radar and hope we have a northward shift, otherwise I might jump in the car :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

    I think it'll be fine as long as no monies are made from his image. He posted it to RadarEU and they splashed it on Facebook. As long as credit is given to Mr Andrew Cogan I dont think it will be an issue.

    Ah great thanks, definitely no monies from it here. I always wonder if im being cheeky when I share someone's pictures. Im sure I would know about it if they didn't like it then I would simply take it down. Good publicity of a good photo can't be a bad thinh.
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Storm & Convective Forecast

     

    Issued 2014-08-09 22:54:29

    Valid: 10/08/2014 0000z to 11/08/2014 0000z

     

    post-1052-0-56965500-1407625111_thumb.pn

     

    THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
     
    Synopsis

    Upper low, centred NW of the British Isles, continues to dominate the weather across NW Europe. A shortwave trough moving in from the west rounding the base of the upper low engages a low pressure system containing the remnants of ex-TS Bertha, this low slowly deepening as it moves NE across SW England, The Midlands and E England on Sunday, before exiting out into the N Sea near Humber around 18z. Active cold front and triple point of the low will force convection and perhaps embedded storms. Post frontal W/NWly flow also unstable to surface heating.

     

    … S ENGLAND. S WALES, MIDLANDS, LINCS and E ANGLIA …

     

    Extensive cloud shield and widespread heavy rainfall will be associated with the frontal system of the low moving NE across England on Sunday. However, recent satellite/WV imagery indicates release of instability where dry air intrusion is overruning the moist surface flow drawn into the low centre.

     

    GFS indicates area of moist air of sub-tropical origin drawn into the low circulation yielding several 100j/kg CAPE near the low, as colder air aloft associated with shortwave trough arriving just behind the low ovespreads the deeply moist boundary layer. Potential instability will be enhanced by very dry mid-level air surging NE with mid-level jet parallel to the cold front and overrunning the deep sfc moisture.Strong divergence of air aloft in the left exit of a 100knt jet streak will create strong Quasi-geostrophic (QG) forcing that will help in the release of this potential instability towards the centre of the low … supporting the potential development of strong thunderstorms.

     

    Any storms that develop near the low/along cold front will be in a strongly-sheared environment, thanks to a strong low-level jet and winds backing towards the surface ahead of the low/cold front moving NE. This will allow quick organisation of any storms into bowing line segments/squall line along the cold front and even one or two supercells near triple point, which will be capable of producing strong, perhaps damaging, convective wind gusts (50-60mph), hail and torrential rain leading to flash flooding. Also, given strong low-level shear and storm-relative helicity indicated by models, an isolated tornado, perhaps strong and long-tracked, is possible. However, given uncertainties over how much instability will be released given potential lack of solar input under cloud shield and reliance on QG forcing, will only issue a SLIGHT risk for now. Though may upgrade to moderate if conditions seem more conducive in the morning.

     

    … OTHER AREAS …

     

    Post cold front W/NWly flow will also yield instability given steep lapse rates from cold air spreading aloft above moist surface heated maritime airmass, supporting scattered thunderstorms spreading across Ireland and western areas of the UK through the afternoon following the low moving NE, though these storms are less likely to be severe.

     

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Co. Down, Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning
  • Location: Co. Down, Northern Ireland

    Here's some lightning from earlier, will be uploading a video when I can

     

    post-20640-0-30013900-1407630496_thumb.p

    post-20640-0-54898500-1407630530_thumb.p

    post-20640-0-71796600-1407630563_thumb.p

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