Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>

[Chloe]

Cracker of a storm here in west London some nice and near cg really loud thun

[Chloe]

Cracker

Cracker of a storm here in west London some nice and near cg really loud thunder[seems to be over the west of me/quote]

[stainesbloke]

Very dark to the N and E with lots of lightning and thunder, no rain yet. Not sure which way this storm is moving?

[chubbyfan]

its been constant thunder and lightning here since past 5am..unbelievable

 

storm cell just appeared out of the void. very loud thunder. flash/forked lightning..awesome scenes.

[tcc]

Yes Brighton, Hove along to Worthing I believe have had constant storms. Lots of flooding and some of the vids on Twitter where the roads are rivers in Hove I think were unbelievable!

 

I could hear the Thunder from about 7am but no rain until about 15min ago.

 

Classic case of a convergence zone I believe, Nick how long is it due to last?

[carinthian]

Friend just posted this picture on facebook. Worthing station underpass this morning. Reports of lots of flooding in this area with storm that is very slow moving.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Forecasts have all changed to say thunderstorms. Saw none of them say this yesterday. Not much of a forecast if they wait til it happens.

Was expecting all of this last night. Couldn't get anywhere near the activity because of rush hour traffic. Worst timing and positioning of a storm for me.

No worries, will wait three weeks for the next one...

[Nick F]

Heard a few rumbles of thunder earlier, but all the action to the S and SW of me now, anyway, storms this morning across the SE, before drifting away south this afternoon.

 

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

 

Issued 2014-07-28 08:07:56

Valid: 28/07/2014 0600z to 29/07/2014 0600z

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

Synopsis

Upper low over S England/English Channel will continue to drift south into N France, shallow surface low  centred over Belgium this morning will continue east into Germany, with associated frontal zone close to SE England.

 

... SE and C S ENGLAND, E ANGLIA ...

 

Steep lapse rates overspreading S England beneath upper low moving south and fairly moist airmass across SE England is generating an unstable airmass in the above areas, which is supporting slow-moving thunderstorms this morning across SE England. Thunderstorms are likely to continue this morning and perhaps early afternoon across the above areas, before eventually spreading south into the E Channel/N France ... these storms will be capable of producing large amounts of hail, torrential rain leading to flash flooding, gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning,

Edited July 28, 2014 by Nick F

[sendandreturn]

Last 10 days, Kent, East Sussex and Essex certainly the place to be! I can;t recall the last time it rained in Hampshire, maybe the 18th!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Heard a few rumbles of thunder earlier, but all the action to the S and SW of me now, anyway, storms this morning across the SE, before drifting away south this afternoon.

 

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

convmap_280714.png

 

Issued 2014-07-28 08:07:56

Valid: 28/07/2014 0600z to 29/07/2014 0600z

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

SynopsisUpper low over S England/English Channel will continue to drift south into N France, shallow surface low  centred over Belgium this morning will continue east into Germany, with associated frontal zone close to SE England.

 

... SE and C S ENGLAND, E ANGLIA ...

 

Steep lapse rates overspreading S England beneath upper low moving south and fairly moist airmass across SE England is generating an unstable airmass in the above areas, which is supporting slow-moving thunderstorms this morning across SE England. Thunderstorms are likely to continue this morning and perhaps early afternoon across the above areas, before eventually spreading south into the E Channel/N France ... these storms will be capable of producing large amounts of hail, torrential rain leading to flash flooding, gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning,

Lol - needed this yesterday

[poseidon]

Stonker of a storm here in Essex early this morning, for what must have been 2 hours. It seemed to sit over the top of me for a long period so that the lightning came down from right overhead. One CG with shotgun thunder was slightly too close for comfort as it blinded me for about 3 seconds - never had that before! Multiple CGs and CCs in the sky at once, lightning every few seconds and window vibrating thunder. Rain was torrential but not to the extreme. Can't believe the number of storms we've had in EA this year. Looking forward to checking the radar archives for this one.

 

Looks like WRF nailed this event completely.

Edited July 28, 2014 by poseidon

[chionomaniac]

In East Grinstead today and the monsoon has well and truly hit!

[Wet'n'Dry]

Morning all, feeling a little bit bleary eyed after being awoken at 04:15 by the 16th storm of the year.

Not too much rain but a brilliant light show. Mostly IC but the odd blue CG strikes all around me!

[Speedway Slider]

Nothing in Leicester!

[Stormyking]

Wow aswome stuff guys, sounds like its been a cracker of a morning for the SE!

 

Have had a couple oft  showers this morning, but nothing too special, hopefully can get one or 2 decent showers before midday

[Speedway Slider]

By the looks of the Thunderstorm at risk map, we're just outside it..... Still, suppose a storm could breach the northern boundary line, just.....

[Supacell]

Lol - needed this yesterday

If you read back you will see i mentioned a risk of storms last night.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Put this in the moan thread if you like but despite being VERY on the ball last night and checking all available information sources and now casting I completely missed this.

Turned up at work 9 this morning and they had a belter of a storm since 5.

Had I had access to anything forecasting this yesterday / last night I would have been here and waiting.

Some pointers for where I should be looking for next time would be much appreciated as I have decided this is the last 'next door storm' I will be missing.

As you can understand extremely frustrated to have missed this.

Would really like to be in te midst of some action soon. Bought loads of storm photography equipment which is sitting gathering dust despite every attempt to be where the storms are.

Not looking forward to the potentially very long painful wait until the next one...

And on top of all this it is Monday and now I have a long long week of work.

:-(

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Hey will diurnal heating spark off anything else later today?

Or am I getting my hopes up again?

[Paul Sherman]

Flashbang,

 

All the pointers were there yesterday afternoon, you could have even checked the BBC Weather page and clicked the link for the broadcast they do which showed Thunderstorms in the early hours of monday, a few pages back there is a link to Model forecasts of where they put the storms at 2-4am this morning, they nailed the Essex storms but failed on the East Sussex Convergence Storms.

 

I was very close to going North of Chelmsford at 1am and sitting it out but gambled and opted out last night, still got a Decent Storm at 4am but the best lightning in the dark was Stansted, Saffrom Waldon and Brighton area last night.

 

Why dont you utilise the free charts from Netweather which show Cape, LI, Converging winds etc, also gives modelled precip etc, your whining posts are totally wrong this morning as all the signs were there for a convergence zone from The Wash to The South Coast on all yesterdays models!

[carinthian]

The storm over Sussex this morning seems to have reached its northern limit and seems to be edging back to the channel again. So same areas may bet another deluge but probabaly not as intense as earlier. Looks like Bogner and further west missing the action.

[Neilsouth]

Flashbang,

 

 

 

I think the problem comes down to the "Predicted" rain radar the beeb use, it was so badly wrong it was unreal. It is always at odds with their own storm forecasts

[Greeny]

I noticed the chance of something happening but didn't realise it would be overnight. I thought that once the day had gone that the potential had gone. I saw the convergence, steepening lapse rates and some reasonable dlp up to 6pm.

I can look back at the charts so I can see what the models had forecast can't I?

[chapmanslade]

I completely missed this.

So why moan to others - YOU missed it.By their very nature convective weather is somewhat unpredictable and you are not going to get 'be at East Grinstead at 05.31' As has been said the information WAS there but you are going to need to go beyond the BBC and MetO websites to get fine detail as they are aimed at the general public in broad brush strokes.

[TheToastPeople]

Heh thats amusing, wasn't expecting anything overnight for the uk. just ran the radar from when i went to bed and god damn where did that lot come from!!