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Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>

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Good morning, well, for many, an exciting last few days with more storms than you can shake a stick at!

Now the plume event has ended, here's a new thread for general storm/convective discussion for the forthcoming period

 

link to technical discussion here ----------> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80904-spanish-plumeconvective-technical-analysis-discussion-1772014-onwards/

Edited by ajpoolshark

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Stop saying how good the plume was!

 

I'm storm starved and looking forward to this week's potential... please, no more mention of the 'P' word unless you are referring to something forthcoming - or I might eat my own foot with frustration!

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Well, what does this week have to offer. ~ Plenty of high temperatures! ~ 26-29 may'be. Risk of storms from Wednesday onward with ever increasing risk on each day

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Hoping for better this week, weekend was very poor in this area.

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It's going to be a little dead in the next few days, some showers sparking of later in the week. Back to the previous thread, it was hardly IMBY, they were talking of bow echoes moving through the SE, mesocyclones, which were only observed up north. Yea we got our storms, but none of them in SE were severe how they considered a level 3 warning. Is a joke. I'm very glad that some of you got some beasts, but they went a little OTT, in the wording. I thought the SE was going to be pummelled by imports? But whatever did make the crossing fizzled out, I don't want to sound negative, but that's how I see it. We got a limp MCS glancing this location, but even to my west it catched a cold and its electrical activity had dropped by 75% compared to when it was on the French mainland.

Great cape values does not equate to potent storms, this is lesson I've learnt.

(Not sure if this is the right place, move if so)

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It's going to be a little dead in the next few days, some showers sparking of later in the week. Back to the previous thread, it was hardly IMBY, they were talking of bow echoes moving through the SE, mesocyclones, which were only observed up north. Yea we got our storms, but none of them in SE were severe how they considered a level 3 warning. Is a joke. I'm very glad that some of you got some beasts, but they went a little OTT, in the wording. I thought the SE was going to be pummelled by imports? But whatever did make the crossing fizzled out, I don't want to sound negative, but that's how I see it. We got a limp MCS glancing this location, but even to my west it catched a cold and its electrical activity had dropped by 75% compared to when it was on the French mainland.Great cape values does not equate to potent storms, this is lesson I've learnt.(Not sure if this is the right place, move if so)

 

Saturday's lightning strikes

 

 

 

Estofex forecast

 

 

 

Not too shabby an effort IMO, especially given the added complexities of Friday's storm aftermath, and the importance of diurnal heating. Whereas an argument can be made for the lack of severity of some of the SE'ern storms in particular, it was always a big IF, and in the text forecast Estofex made readers aware of this. Severe weather was observed in the Level 2 area, and the Level 1 area, and not a whole lot of lightning was seen outside the thunderstorm risk area, which should equate to a great forecast, should it not? :)

 

There were no promises of Level 3 warnings, bow echoes, tornadoes, etc etc, just a reasoned explanation that the conditions COULD be ripe for such eventualities. As it happens, we got off lightly (and in your back yard - very lightly). Unlucky.

 

One final thought. Had conditions agreed on a widespread outbreak of severe weather, and forecasts such as Netweather's, Estofex's failed to mention the possibilities of severe conditions, we'd all be up in arms! You have to allow possibilities for worst-case scenarios, and when they don't materialise quite how you want, it's not OTT wording, just be thankful your greenhouse didn't get destroyed by large hail this time ;)

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Afternoon all

 

Well what a memorable last few days it was,especialy saturday afternoon/evening the 19th,when the storm came to me instead of chasing one,i was a tiny bit dissapointed not to see many CG's from it though(only a couple as it exited my area where lightning was more visible),it was mostly IC lightning and could only see flashes,

 

here are 3 clips of the storm as it approached,hope you like,oh and sorry for the interfierance from family members lol

 

 

 

 

i have a couple more clips of the storm exiting the area,with visible lightning,uploading then now :)

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The Met was way out with it's predicted storm locations, but netweather AND estofex were spot on :)

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Finally getting to trawl through the vast amount of Brumcam media recorded over the last couple of daysNow as a Brummie, theres one dream lightning shot.... the Post office tower(BT Tower)being struck:yahoo:post-12214-0-07011500-1405953398_thumb.p 3mins after.... this happened :)Shotgun thunder anyone?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIwNNnTrcw0The live footage from the morning is being uploaded to my YT channel Edit; HELP!  I seem to have lost the ability to post the actual video anymore :cc_confused:

Edited by Arnie Pie

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It's going to be a little dead in the next few days, some showers sparking of later in the week. Back to the previous thread, it was hardly IMBY, they were talking of bow echoes moving through the SE, mesocyclones, which were only observed up north. Yea we got our storms, but none of them in SE were severe how they considered a level 3 warning. Is a joke. I'm very glad that some of you got some beasts, but they went a little OTT, in the wording. I thought the SE was going to be pummelled by imports? But whatever did make the crossing fizzled out, I don't want to sound negative, but that's how I see it. We got a limp MCS glancing this location, but even to my west it catched a cold and its electrical activity had dropped by 75% compared to when it was on the French mainland. 

Sounds a little like sour grapes I'm afraid. 

 

The storm that tracked across Essex (which is in the SE) yesterday caused untold damage to property. Parts of Canvey Island were under a foot of water. 2 houses had their roof blown off and there were countless other problems that caused misery for people. That storm could have triggered anywhere in the SE yesterday and it's arguable that had it crossed London it would have been front page on all the newspapers. Ask someone who witnessed it if it wasn't "severe". Certainly in terms of the weather we usually get in the driest county in England. I missed out on Saturday and Sunday's storms by a few miles and frankly I'm pleased that somewhere else got it. Be careful what you wish for.  

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Sounds a little like sour grapes I'm afraid. 

 

The storm that tracked across Essex (which is in the SE) yesterday caused untold damage to property. Parts of Canvey Island were under a foot of water. 2 houses had their roof blown off and there were countless other problems that caused misery for people. That storm could have triggered anywhere in the SE yesterday and it's arguable that had it crossed London it would have been front page on all the newspapers. Ask someone who witnessed it if it wasn't "severe". Certainly in terms of the weather we usually get in the driest county in England. I missed out on Saturday and Sunday's storms by a few miles and frankly I'm pleased that somewhere else got it. Be careful what you wish for.  

but you're forgetting, if anyone issues a forecast and said forecast doesn't materialize over your house then that forecaster is rubbish and the forecast rubbish etc etc ...and on and on and on and on........... :rolleyes:  :lazy:

 

anyhoos, joking aside, that's the nature of storm forecasts, i.e a bit of a nightmare to compile, so many variables have to be just right for anyone to reap the stormy rewards!..........The plume event is over now, so time to look forward to nature's next stormy offerings, hopefully later on this week, so for those who haven't had any storms then fingers crossed it'll be your shout in a few days time  :)

Edited by ajpoolshark

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Sounds a little like sour grapes I'm afraid. 

 

The storm that tracked across Essex (which is in the SE) yesterday caused untold damage to property. Parts of Canvey Island were under a foot of water. 2 houses had their roof blown off and there were countless other problems that caused misery for people. That storm could have triggered anywhere in the SE yesterday and it's arguable that had it crossed London it would have been front page on all the newspapers. Ask someone who witnessed it if it wasn't "severe". Certainly in terms of the weather we usually get in the driest county in England. I missed out on Saturday and Sunday's storms by a few miles and frankly I'm pleased that somewhere else got it. Be careful what you wish for.  

Saw some you tube footage of Canvey Island yesterday, after the storms and a foot of water is no exaggeration!

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Hi guys. This is my first proper post on here. I took some very interesting videos from Buckingham looking at storm moving towards me from oxford on Saturday. This was around the time it was confirmed as a low level supercell. I've time lapsed them very roughly and put a 30 second video on YouTube. Please if anyone on here could look and maybe explain what's happening. My thoughts are that it's a fast rotating wall cloud but I'd really appreciate your opinions. Here's the link hope it works

Thanks

Edited by burpingangler

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I can definitely vouch for the storms that tracked in our area to be severe! Certainly from an electrical perspective. (Friday night) and rain intensity (Yesterday afternoon) - One was on a par with something we saw in Illinois this year, for sure.

 

They were quite localised though, certainly my Sister in Law had far less activity yesterday, but more on Friday night, and she's only 16 miles west from us.

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Finally gettig to trawl through the vast amount of Brumcam media recorded over the last couple of days

Now as a Brummie theres one dream lightning shot.... the Post office tower(BT Tower)being struck:yahoo:

Posted Imageshot0039.png

 

3mins after.... this happened

Shotgun thunder anyone?

:)

The live footage from the morning is being uploaded to my YT channel

 

Edit; HELP!  I seem to have lost the ability to post the actual video anymore :cc_confused:

You mean like this?

http://youtu.be/EIwNNnTrcw0

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Bit of a summary of events here, Thursday night was a blank for us as expected,

Friday night into Saturday gave us a few flashes and a half decent light show, however the main event was Saturday afternoon!

 

Watched the radar with huge excitement as an absolute beauty of a storm tracked NE to here and beyond all the way from Swindon!

And what a storm it was, green sky and amazing structure as it approached and then some intense precip coupled with strong gusts and constant lightning made for a tense experience to say the least as i drove through the core. Also reports of a tornado in the area as the storm passed through! 

Unfortunately i didnt manage to catch any good video or pics! :( 

 

2 possible supercells have now passed through Chesterfield this summer so i am officially banned from complaining about storms in 2014! 

Below i have included a radar screenshot and a strike map of the area! A great event all in all and good to see that so many of us got our much needed fill of storms!

 

 

post-17481-0-55312300-1405959767_thumb.j

post-17481-0-07328900-1405959779_thumb.p

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There are always going to be winners and losers, thats the very nature of Thunderstorms if you are in a static location, if you get out and about then you have a much better chance.

 

For Leigh On Sea it was a fantastic 4 Days, I would also say Kent and Dorset did very well also, this backed up by the lightning maps from the 4 day event.

 

Thursday nights Storm was a bit of a bonus with a Bifurcated Trough pushing Storms North West and North East (The North-East part was not meant to happen but once the trough started to Bifurcate in the Channel it was suddenly game on) It was some of the best Elevated Lightning I have seen in 15 years in this part of the world.

 

Friday Nights Storms were in 2 parts, The first part was from 3 Surface Based Supercells that were just the other side of the Channel near Rouens that drifted North on the Southerly Flow, This hit SE Essex around 9pm and went on until 1030pm, once again some great Elevated Cg Lightning and a beautiful Gust Front (Not as nice as the South Coast though)

 

The Second part of Friday nights storms came along at 3am until 6am on Saturday Morning and was mainly IC Lightning with sporadic Cg's thrown in, the best part about this storm was the constant lightning for 3 hours lighting up the bedroom, it really was non stop.

 

I was away for Saturday in West Wales at a BBQ But had chatted to some other chasers and we plumped for Oxford as a location for possible Supercells so would have been all over that (Sods Law) but was glad the forecast verified in that respect.

 

I also missed Sundays CZ Storms that initiated over Leigh On Sea, Hail, CG Lightning, Flooding and damaged roads around these parts greeted me on my return at 6pm.

 

Guess SE Essex was lucky this time around but am expecting other parts of the country to get in on the action end of this week as Easterlies at the surface are never good for locations East of London in Homegrown Storms, so maybe some of the members who missed out will be in the action Wed-Friday!

 

Good Luck All!

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Sounds a little like sour grapes I'm afraid.  The storm that tracked across Essex (which is in the SE) yesterday caused untold damage to property. Parts of Canvey Island were under a foot of water. 2 houses had their roof blown off and there were countless other problems that caused misery for people. That storm could have triggered anywhere in the SE yesterday and it's arguable that had it crossed London it would have been front page on all the newspapers. Ask someone who witnessed it if it wasn't "severe". Certainly in terms of the weather we usually get in the driest county in England. I missed out on Saturday and Sunday's storms by a few miles and frankly I'm pleased that somewhere else got it. Be careful what you wish for.

Don't mean to cause any offence but don't tell someone who loves storms they have 'sour grapes' when areas of the country have amazing storms and others miss out completely. Please understand the frustration when you, I or anyone who likes storms has to watch as the media portray how brilliant it was to be there and see it. I was very lucky on Thursday but very disappointed that storm wasn't the first of many as indicated by almost every forecasting outlet.Also bear in mind Essex had countless continuously powerful storms, that's quite an awesome thing and I hope all who saw them got their full of storm fun.I understand the elation of those who had storms and feel the pain for those who didn't - I think the issue of damage caused is quite irrelevant if we are talking about people wanting to witness powerful storms - and people who had their hopes dashed quite severely.

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You mean like this

Exactly....Cheers Mr Pantz

 

Social media fatigue setting in :lazy:

Edited by Arnie Pie

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I feel for the people that missed out. Especially the younger members who can't drive.

 

For those that can drive and didn't see anything and were within an hour or so of a decent storm I suggest you get in your car and drive to it. Great fun !

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So next weekend isn't a plume event then... More of a home-grown situation?

Will storms track west from Wales and the West Country?

I have a system now where I hea toward where the storm will come from and travel ahead of it back home. Worked well on thurs though I think I bottled it too early and missed a lot of the good CGs

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