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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards


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A very notable event indeed coming up. Have been following plumes for 7 years now and this one certainly stands out as quite an impressive set up. There is certainly widespread potential for strong/severe storms all over the place.

 

The one thing I have learnt about these events is they never go quite as predicted and I certainly wouldn't count anyone out yet.

 

Best of luck to everyone hoping to see a storm. I am looking forward to this one.

Edited by dave48
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This explosion here is what we like!  

New strikes appearing in the channel peeps ahead of MCS 2 - active very quickly too

A couple more pictures  This part was rotating crazily A VERY close lightning strike (amazing picture, I know lol) And this one... I am so annoyed that it went wrong!  

Posted Images

Being in Norwich, I think it's going to be a damp squib. The models show some pretty heavy CIN all day Friday getting stronger all day and refusing to budge all through Saturday.So despite projected CAPE of around 700j/kg and lapse rates of around 30℃ it looks like nothing will happen.Why does mother nature want to kill my soul?

Yep, think we'll miss out as usual. Funny how people always think the east does best for storms - if  they occur west of the A1 then they ain't in the east ;)

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To reassure anyone worried about models and precip placement. There are storms currently breaking out across extreme NW France that are not on this mornings WRF 5KM. Just shows the volatility. Models can easily miss cells or have them out of place by hundreds of miles.

 

Edit: Radar grab of said cells.

 

post-8383-0-98304400-1405601525_thumb.jp

Edited by dave48
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Wouldn't worry, most of the country will get smashed at some point this weekend. Will take something special to be worst than the storm we had last year that went on for about 12 hours and was nonstop bomb style strikes every 30 seconds, easily the worst I'd experienced in my lifetime. This is spread out over 2-3 days though so could reach crazy levels. Yet more storms and incredibly people still try to moan that we never get anything  :rofl:

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Yep, all those people saying "we're not going to get anything" should be a bit more optimistic!

 

Personally, I'm really looking forward tonight as the charts look really good here from 2100, through the night for the SW.

 

It looks like anwhere in the S, as far E as E.Sussex could get smashed tomorrow morning, along with the C & W.Midlands. The North looks ripe for tomorrow afternoon, before it properly kicks off in the E Friday night.

 

I reckon we're all going to get a juicy, delicious piece of thunder pie :)

 

EDIT: Saturday looks like carnage everywhere!

Edited by boogercj
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To reassure anyone worried about models and precip placement. There are storms currently breaking out across extreme NW France that are not on this mornings WRF 5KM. Just shows the volatility. Models can easily miss cells or have them out of place by hundreds of miles.

 

Edit: Radar grab of said cells.

 

Posted Imagecolor_nord_ouest_171205.jpg

 

The Hirlam picked this out - my high-res model of choice in a convective set up.

 

Posted Image

 

Available from....

 

http://www.weeronline.nl/vakman-index/130/0

 

http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/prediccion/modelosnumericos/hirlam

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well in the space of 6 hours, the met office forecast for here has gone from heavy showers on saturday, to light rain to now predominantly a dry day, i guess things are shifting westwards as we get closer to the event

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The Hirlam picked this out - my high-res model of choice in a convective set up.

 

 

Available from....

 

http://www.weeronline.nl/vakman-index/130/0

 

http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/prediccion/modelosnumericos/hirlam

 

Great spot. Seemed to have quite a good handle on the timing and the shape there. Hopefully it is also correct in moving the activity up through the SW this evening/over night! :)

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I get the impression that most of Lincolnshire and East Anglia has already had a lot more thundery activity than my part of North Yorkshire, although there could be local exceptions.  It's feasible that those same areas could largely miss out over Friday and the weekend but the latest GFS run has a fair amount of showery and potentially thundery activity on Sunday following two days which have the majority of the activity further west.

 

For my area there could be some thundery showers about late tomorrow, though they will most likely be scattered so there is a percentage chance of missing them.  Saturday is forecast to have some very intense rainfall in parts of the west but missing Yorkshire, but maybe some thundery showers again here during the afternoon/evening, and more are possible on Sunday.  So, for most of Yorkshire, there are at least three days of significant thundery potential, but it remains to be seen whether it will be widespread or well-scattered.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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All I'm going to say is good luck to everyone and I hope most if not all people who are users on here get to at least hear some thunder, see some lightning or both. It looks like a thunderstorm is approaching me now but it is way off and I'm worried if it's come too early now.

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well in the space of 6 hours, the met office forecast for here has gone from heavy showers on saturday, to light rain to now predominantly a dry day, i guess things are shifting westwards as we get closer to the event

 

I wouldn't worry, things can and will change. It could be heavier than predicted or it might not be as big as predicted. As always it's a matter of waiting and seeing. I honestly think most are going to get something at the very least and likely more, but the weather works in mysterious ways. I hate thunder and lightning so personally I'm hoping we miss it all somehow, even though we're basically smack bang in the middle of the threat. 

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Of all days I'm off sick (torn knee ligament at work last night) it had to be the best day for potential here in 9 years.

Just been up the shop and it's unbearable but the wind is strength ing as the day goes on.

That stuff in France is on the move. I think we'll get it just after rush hour if it hits!

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So then,3000+ CAPE and an LI of -10 for Saturday afteroon according to 

the 06z NMM. :shok:

 

 

Normally these figures decrease the nearer the event,but not this time.

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So then,3000+ CAPE and an LI of -10 for Saturday afteroon according to 

the 06z NMM. :shok:

 

Posted Imagenmmuk-6-58-0.png

 

Normally these figures decrease the nearer the event,but not this time.

 

Does anyone have any thoughts on the potential for an MCS Saturday night also?

 

Probably too early to tell at this stage I imagine, but that chart is just phenomenal.

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headlines for Monday

 

biggest storms ever hit the UK over the weekend with relentless constant major downpours and baseball size hail the added weight of extra water has caused the UK to fall into the sea :rofl:

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Well the met office rainfall forecast, while not to be taken as gospel, has more areas of Southern England shown as covered as it crosses later tonight and into the early hours. It could perhaps even tail across towards London, so many people have some good chance to see something even more Saturday!

 

It also seems to be arriving earlier...This morning, rainfall was shown as not due where I live until about 0400hrs here, but now it looks like it will hit around 0000-0100 for the W Country, areas of the Midlands, Southern Wales and Southern Ireland....exciting times!! :D

Edited by Chris K
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I wouldn't worry, things can and will change. It could be heavier than predicted or it might not be as big as predicted. As always it's a matter of waiting and seeing. I honestly think most are going to get something at the very least and likely more, but the weather works in mysterious ways. I hate thunder and lightning so personally I'm hoping we miss it all somehow, even though we're basically smack bang in the middle of the threat. 

i guess if we do miss the storms, which has every possibility, then the bbq might get another outting as the temps are looking warm

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