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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards


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Been sunny in Adwick for the last two hours.......

 

Is the sunshine important for what is expected tonight/tomorrow?  It's been dank all day here with the temperatures still in the mid to high teens and a coolish breeze.  Will it make any difference at all or do the high temperatures further south mean that the storms will have enough ooomph to get this far north?

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This explosion here is what we like!  

New strikes appearing in the channel peeps ahead of MCS 2 - active very quickly too

A couple more pictures  This part was rotating crazily A VERY close lightning strike (amazing picture, I know lol) And this one... I am so annoyed that it went wrong!  

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My No storms club is purely for frustrations and  moaning and whatever pessimism a member may feel. So please say all you want in there about your lack of storms but keep it in reason too. Please keep this thread free of all misery it really is beginning to get depressing.

 

And please again don't start on me after all I am trying to bring the Optimism and trying to keep this thread flowing. It's so exhausting sometimes trying to keep things as they should be!!!

It's all your fault....Always is lol. Good luck tonight but stay safe

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Arghh why does the gfs take so long to come out now a days, the gfs 12z used to start tricking out at around 15:45  :nonono:

Could  be wrong  but isnt  that in winter?

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Arghh why does the gfs take so long to come out now a days, the gfs 12z used to start tricking out at around 15:45  :nonono:

 

During BST it's an hour later. When the clocks go back in Autumn it will return to the 15:30-45 start time!

 

Maxed out at 26.9c here today, pretty toasty.

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Just on the moderate line there! Is this for the whole of the 19th? Just that there isn't a time stated.

 

Have added date/time on forecast map, 16z today until 12z Saturday, forecast has been posted in technical thread:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80904-spanish-plumeconvective-technical-analysis-discussion-1772014-onwards/

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I think some are getting the wrong end of the stick here. 

 

There is nothing wrong with pessimism per se. It's just when you get one-liner posts basically whining because they never get anything, it doesn't really do a great deal to the discussion and can take the thread off on a tangent. If you believe you're not going to get much and then post reasons (valid ones, not "because we never get anything") and/or charts to back up your point, then great! That's exactly what this thread is for. 

 

It works both ways in that one-liner, overhyped ramps are also discouraged.

 

This will be the last post concerning the matter on here from me for today, if people are still unsure about what is acceptable and what isn't, or have issues regarding this policy, feel free to give me a PM and we can discuss it further :)

I saw my error of my ways and deleted that post as i can understand that saying the same thing is boring and not what the thread is about. apologies.

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Arghh why does the gfs take so long to come out now a days, the gfs 12z used to start tricking out at around 15:45  :nonono:

 

It comes out at around 3-4pm in winter but the hour change means that we see it coming out 4-5pm in summer.

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Arghh why does the gfs take so long to come out now a days, the gfs 12z used to start tricking out at around 15:45  :nonono:

Thats for winter :)

 

Interesting graphic from the Met regarding tomorrow afteroon!

 

16:00 Saturday 

And this is perfect, storms right over my location! Unfortunately I will be starting my first day of work :(

Edited by Panayiotis
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so whats the chance of me catching a storm havent seen forecast yet

hi, i hope its a good chance, after a dank and fresh morning, the afternoon has warmed up nicely, fingers crossed we will catch a storm tonight  but i guess its 50/50 at the mo.

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Well a miss today although a storm may have gone up the eastern side of Sheffield this morning. Sadly the lack of any prolonged sun meant not heat available to brew anything up and what came this way had nothing to feed it so died away. Pity as the temps still going up here which shows how hot it could have got if the sun came out.

Hopefully will be able to wash the car naturally tomorrow and not have to top the ponds up on Sunday. Not expecting any storms though will just too far north no doubt.

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harsh climate i dont understand these charts can you explain abit please

 

The colours show the amount of energy in the atmosphere, the numbers on the map show the instability (more negative = more unstable). That's it in a nutshell :)

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Just hit 29.5'c here in the centre of MK, with the humidity it's unbearable. The slight breeze that we do have feels like someone aiming a hair dryer on full blast right in to your face. On another note lightning now starting to increase over France from a cluster of developing storms near Le Mans. Sferics popping up near Brest now also, it's starting to happen...

Edited by SnowJoke
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harsh climate i dont understand these charts can you explain abit please

 

That chart I just posted is the predicted amount of CAPE (convective available potential energy) tomorrow evening.

 

As you can see, there is a high amount of CAPE predicted along with a quite negative ''LI''. Basically the lower the lifted index is the more unstable the atmosphere is. 

 

So that chart is very nice if your hoping for storms ; ) Although we still need other factors to fall into place.

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