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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards


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This explosion here is what we like!  

New strikes appearing in the channel peeps ahead of MCS 2 - active very quickly too

A couple more pictures  This part was rotating crazily A VERY close lightning strike (amazing picture, I know lol) And this one... I am so annoyed that it went wrong!  

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Comparing minute differences between the chart runs is just going to drive people insane, nothing else. :p

 

Someone's going to get a spectacular show, the only way to find out who now if to keep watching that radar.

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Estofex out LEVEL 2 for the S-East http://www.estofex.org/

Was a large Lvl 3 over France then they removed it!!Full text belowSYNOPSISA trough located west of western Europe is expected to slowly move eastward. An embedded shortwave over the UK moves northward. A southerly flow has become established on its eastern flank. This flow advects very warm air northward over France, which is moist at low levels. Over central Europe, a weak ridge is located. A cold core low is located over Sweden.DISCUSSIONFrance, southern England...As the main trough approaches France, the mid-level flow is expected to back and intensify, yielding a strongly sheared environment with about 20-25 m/s of 0-6 km shear. In the lower troposphere, a convergence zone should establish approximately near a line from Le Havre to La Rochelle. In vicinity of this zone, both GFS and ECMWF predict high, 20-23 C dew point temperatures, that should yield about 2000 J/kg CAPE in many places, and CAPE locally exceeding 4000 J/kg in northern France according to both models. In vicinity of the convergence zone, high 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is also forecast.The main question will be how many storms will be able to form in this environment, which is in principle capable of sustaining extremely severe storms. Another question is whether the storms will be surface-based.Current thinking is that the air-mass slightly to the east of the surface convergence line will be strongly capped. Near the convergence line and to its west, however, convection is likely to break out during the evening as lower tropospheric temperatures drop somewhat in response to quasi-geostrophic forcing for upward motion. Model guidance show very high precipitation rates. It is likely that a few supercells will form initially. In response to increasing forcing for upward motion, a bow-echo may well move northward along the convergence zone. Supercells developing in such a volatile environment, will have a risk of producing giant hail (> 5 cm) and severe wind gusts. Given that low-level shear will increase to 10-15 m/s during the evening, tornadoes will also be possible. Any bow-echo system will have the risk of producing extremely severe wind gusts. In addition, very large precipitation amounts may occur. The focal point of the threat should travel northward across the English Channel and may well affect southeastern England during the 00-06 UTC time frame.An alternative scenario is that not much convection will be surface-based, and the bulk of the activity will be elevated, reducing the overall severe threat. Because of this uncertainty, an level 3 was not issued at this time.
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What about last July? Had the best storm I've seen in years whilst I was on holiday in Swanage.

I missed last years believe it or not. lolIncredible display here, very surprised.
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But, wasn't the East/SE always meant to be in the best position Saturday into Sunday?

 

Previous GFS Run's had shown CAPE and LI values to be high among most of England, not just the highest values limited to the East. But, to be fair the CAPE values in the West/Central England are still very high.

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It's possible but it's one of them nights when all eyes need to be on the radar for developments/movement.

 

 

Yea! Have several weather apps open on my HTC ONE M7, Android phone, it copes quite well with them open, couldn't have done that with my old N97!!

 

Looks like the band is breaking down into individual areas/cells? Some producing sferics, some not, and its all "crabbing" sort of north, but now uneven progress...... so not sure how close its gonna get to me.........

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If I read the sypnosis correctly, there is the potential for storms with such severity that they could warrant a level 3 being forecast, but currently due to uncertainty they are referaining from doing so.

 

Sounds good to me. There's potential for some real crackers! I m quite surprised at how limited the level 1 and 2 warnings are to the S/SE

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Just spotted my first very distant flash to my S :)

 

If the lightning activity dies out before hitting Bristol again, I might just throw myself off Snowdon tomorrow whilst I'm there and be done with it :laugh:

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Storms all around here and my SE/SW at the moment strikes every few seconds gusty winds and some large rain drops, 

The thunder is loud and crashing, will keep people awake alright....

Edited by Rustynailer
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Highest CAPE Values decide to shift East once again.

Potentially another let-down.

 

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Actually the values are better on the 18z than the 12z for the Midlands, just the highest values East but this keeps moving around Each run. Pointless looking at it run to run now really. Models seem pretty confident that an initial push overnight will affect the East but by Dawn, the Midlands looks to get pounded.

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ah yeah the 3 has now gone

 

I guess what they were saying was they don't think that area will be a 3 - but it was obviously being considered

 

interesting times

 

 

or all 18z models have downgraded

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in fact if I'm reading that right - S-East is possibly under a 2 that could be upgraded to a 3 - due to uncertainty !

Same here ESTOFEX are very confident showed by the wording, possible extreme stuff. An level 2 puts the SE on a good course. Let's hope everyone stays safe and refrains from doing silly things. Yes it's exciting but there is a element of danger.
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Looks crap for most of the west/west midlands in all honesty. The slip eastwards is underway.

You clearly havent read the charts at all. That forecast is only till 6am Saturday. All models clearly show an initial area affecting the East as per Estofex then from dawn onwards another surge occurs affecting Central and Western areas. 

Edited by Costa Del Fal
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Actually the values are better on the 18z than the 12z for the Midlands, just the highest values East but this keeps moving around Each run. Pointless looking at it run to run now really. Models seem pretty confident that an initial push overnight will affect the East but by Dawn, the Midlands looks to get pounded.

was gona say the same thing!!this run has better cape values and further west than the 12z!!temps are higher widely aswell!!looking at 27 or 28 across england!!upgrade if you ask me!!
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