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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards


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The storm is not even here and I'm witnessing the best lightning since 2005, first CG in 9 years too- this side of the Purbeck hill. What a display! I am wetting Mapantz.

What about last July? Had the best storm I've seen in years whilst I was on holiday in Swanage. 

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This explosion here is what we like!  

New strikes appearing in the channel peeps ahead of MCS 2 - active very quickly too

A couple more pictures  This part was rotating crazily A VERY close lightning strike (amazing picture, I know lol) And this one... I am so annoyed that it went wrong!  

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The storm is not even here and I'm witnessing the best lightning since 2005, first CG in 9 years too- this side of the Purbeck hill. What a display! I am wetting Mapantz.

 

Send the lightning my way please thanks!

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First post ever.

Amazing night. Distant lightning to south of me (just north of southampton).

Are channel storms going to make it here? Has been blowing gale for 30+ mins Nd now calm

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A bit of a downgrade unfortunately, in tonight's GFS run.

 

It has reduced the intensity of the rainfall a bit, thereofore possibly reducing the lightning activity and it has shifted the main area of thundery rain to the west, mainly into the Irish Sea.

I would only use those charts as a rough guide to the positioning on the rain. Predicting the intensity of it is near impossible and pointless to make a judgement really. We will have to wait and see on what get chucked out of France towards us. Any westward shift is good for eastern areas with respect to surface based convection.

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First post ever.Amazing night. Distant lightning to south of me (just north of southampton).Are channel storms going to make it here? Has been blowing gale for 30+ mins Nd now calm

Oooh oooh where are you? Eastleigh? I am in Winchester ...

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That's stuff in the channel is headed for Bristol me thinks.

 

Yea hopefully instead of that nice gap in-between the 2 sections of main activity....*sigh* please no repeats :laugh:

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Storms moving north, gratefully, a little further east than I thought would happen, may even catch a flash and bang in London in the wee hours.

Unusually, for recent times, airmass will be even hotter and more humid behind these storms clearing through, as plume of high theta-e advances north into southern England, though remember this being more common in the 90s.

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A bit of a downgrade unfortunately, in tonight's GFS run.

 

It has reduced the intensity of the rainfall a bit, therefore possibly reducing the lightning activity and it has shifted the main area of thundery rain to the west, mainly into the Irish Sea.

From those charts, you get it all, and you are worried about that?

 

As CS said, it's not worth worrying about.

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From those charts, you get it all, and you are worried about that?

 

As CS said, it's not worth worrying about.

 

Indeed...NMM 4km has it a tad East compared to it's previous run, so to be honest it is really not worth worrying about until we see stuff actually developing on the day.

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Seriously, does anyone think any thunder will get into the East Midlands overnight?

 

It's possible but it's one of them nights when all eyes need to be on the radar for developments/movement.

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Yea hopefully instead of that nice gap in-between the 2 sections of main activity....*sigh* please no repeats :laugh:

Yeah its been an all too common theme this year. I have a good feeling about this one though. Just hoping for a direct hit! :bomb:

 

If nothing tonight, then Saturday has to deliver surely!

Edited by Karl83
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Thought it had died off the last five minutes or so on the Bournemouth Cam, but really perked up again and going for it now with some cracking lightening strikes

 

Surely one has to land on the pier :nea:

Edited by OddSpot
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A bit of a downgrade unfortunately, in tonight's GFS run.

 

It has reduced the intensity of the rainfall a bit, therefore possibly reducing the lightning activity and it has shifted the main area of thundery rain to the west, mainly into the Irish Sea.

 

Waheeeey, that'll do nicely. Round 2 of stealing everybody's lightning, just like last month? :)

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Highest CAPE Values decide to shift East once again.

Potentially another let-down.

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But, wasn't the East/SE always meant to be in the best position Saturday into Sunday? Edited by saint
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Some fresh new cells seem to have been cooked up from Cornwall's storm oven in the last 30 minutes or so (according to the Netweather radar). That county, in particular, is really getting clobbered with torrential rain and storms tonight! No doubt there's quite a lot of interesting activity over the Channel, too. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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A bit of a downgrade unfortunately, in tonight's GFS run.

 

It has reduced the intensity of the rainfall a bit, therefore possibly reducing the lightning activity and it has shifted the main area of thundery rain to the west, mainly into the Irish Sea.

 

no such thing as a downgrade mate. thunderstorms are like snow- extremely difficult to predict accurately and depend on last minute local conditions. some of the best storms i've seen weren't even forecast.

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