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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards


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just found this on twitter

 

Storm relative helicity- potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in supercells &look at the chart for UK on Saturday!

 

Posted ImageBsw8eAeIYAMU1_y.jpg

 

 

does this mean there could be a serious threat of tornadic activity?

 

 

 

Oh yes nicely spotted. Keep an eye on it could we see supercells break out on Saturday? it certainly looks possible at the moment!

Edited by Greenday
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This explosion here is what we like!  

New strikes appearing in the channel peeps ahead of MCS 2 - active very quickly too

A couple more pictures  This part was rotating crazily A VERY close lightning strike (amazing picture, I know lol) And this one... I am so annoyed that it went wrong!  

Posted Images

Hmmm do I or don't I stay up to see what happens.

I have work early tomorrow and don't want to waste hours looking and hoping when I could be getting some sleep

Decisions decisions.

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Its not hard to see why those Supercell Composites are very favourable, Deep Layer Shear On The Order Of 30-40kts, T/T/d of 84/71 and a Neg Tilt Trough are the perfect ingredients for Supercells to form, we ideally look for anything over 30kts as a rule of thumb when chasing these systems in Tornado Alley

 

The big old question is wether Surface Heating and indeed a Surface Based Storm can utilise that 2,000jkg of energy, we only have a very small land mass to get these things done.

exactly Mr Sherminator, not enough land mass for the most part. We breed 'em, the North Sea and Holland get them.....still, remember 28/6/12...we live in hope!  :D

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Its not hard to see why those Supercell Composites are very favourable, Deep Layer Shear On The Order Of 30-40kts, T/T/d of 84/71 and a Neg Tilt Trough are the perfect ingredients for Supercells to form, we ideally look for anything over 30kts as a rule of thumb when chasing these systems in Tornado Alley

 

The big old question is wether Surface Heating and indeed a Surface Based Storm can utilise that 2,000jkg of energy, we only have a very small land mass to get these things done.

 

 

 

Wow! I just spotted the El Reno tornado in your chase history, that is certainly going to be a memorable one!

Edited by Greenday
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Hmmm do I or don't I stay up to see what happens.I have work early tomorrow and don't want to waste hours looking and hoping when I could be getting some sleepDecisions decisions.

Doesn't it look as though tonights stuff is bound for Ireland?

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poss f4 but was close to a thousand years ago ,torro have an article on it !!.....

yes, I think John Holmes witnessed it!  :laugh:

 

 

(sorry in-house site team joke  :wink: )

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a tail of two windows here.

 

My north facing window, has a stunning sunset over the ocean (with some clear sky out that way)

My south facing window, has a very dark brooding thundery looking sky

Which window satisfies you most?

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Its still over the sea though, it has yet to reach land....

Anyway to something regarding tonight, storms are breaking out over an area where the lapse rates are high:

Posted Image

This area moves NW throughout the night, where we still have the high rates over the SW by 12am:

 

Posted Image

Shear then increases during the early morning, which should help things get organised and potentially intensify the storms:Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

It does take its time moving, but these storms should follow suite, its a very dynamic and fluid setup so it needs following closely!

And I wonder if the SW/Wales will see any supercell developments (tornadoes etc) :

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Now I'm starting to think that overnight could be a potentially dangerous situation. All sleeping and a tornado sweeps across a town or city in the highlighted risk area. Thanks for posting this Panayiotis.

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WOAH just looked south out my window from Bournemouth south and the sky is turning very dark and thundery.

EDIT, ime surprised no lightening is coming from this yet! Looks like its bout to go bang

Edited by Rapodo
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Dawlish has a nice live HD webcam showing the incomming storm. Some nice strikes and thunder audible. http://www.dawlishbeach.com/live/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=18

I have it playing in the back ground. maybe the only thunder I hear.

 

nice big clap then

Edited by Dami
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