Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I use Rain Today for nowcasting. Just type 'rain radar' into google and it's usually the second result titled 'Will it rain today?'

Great site - should work on all platforms too

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Latest fax chart for Saturday looks mouth watering with a trough lying down Eastern areas

and cold front in the West.

 

PPVM89.gif

 

Something for everyone perhaps.

 

 

18z gfs dewpoints for saturday look very healthy.

 

90-101UK.gif

20c dewpoint, my word that is going to feel 'Singapore hot'!

[davehsug]

Latest fax chart for Saturday looks mouth watering with a trough lying down Eastern areas

and cold front in the West.

 

PPVM89.gif

 

Something for everyone perhaps.

 

 

18z gfs dewpoints for saturday look very healthy.

 

90-101UK.gif

Ooh look! A cold front in the west during the morning again. It will arrive in the east during the afternoon, just in time for peak heating. Somewhere like erm say Lincolnshire? lol

Edited July 15, 2014 by davehsug

[shaky]

Check the latest 18z nmm for friday!!crazy cape readings and temps getting up to 32 degrees in london and up to 30 in the east midlands!!22 degree dewpoints to boot!!scary indeed!!

[Speedway Slider]

Whilst on this subject for the oncoming storm/s

What are the most important ingredients that make lightning hit the ground/object, or flash between or inside the clouds??

Or is it just random?

[lassie23]

Latest warning from the Met Office covers most of England for Saturday! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=4

[paul m]

Latest warning from the Met Office covers most of England for Saturday! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=4

Bugger was going to find the highest hill around here and use myself as an earth rod...

[weatherobsuk]

Whilst on this subject for the oncoming storm/s

What are the most important ingredients that make lightning hit the ground/object, or flash between or inside the clouds??

Or is it just random?

 

Polarisation, what exactly makes clouds produce lightning is relatively unknown at this time although one theory i've read states that a possibility is absorbed photons have a charge which is co-incidentally opposite that of the charge produced by the upper layers of a thunderstorm. The two come into contact and you get lightning.

[Speedway Slider]

Oooooh, Errrrrrrr!!!

Is this a new met office weather warning graphic? Looks stormy !!!!

[Love Snow]

Bbc just warning of spectacular thunderstorms on Saturday

[The PIT]

Carol K has stopped any storms for Saturday. Luckily she didn't say humdingers changing to spectacular instead. Ah that means drizzle showers.

[Weather-history]

The warm and cold front on the latest FAX chart for Friday has vanished. Now it's a trough.

[Dan the Man]

Morning all,

Can I call today Day 1 of EL APOCALYPTO?

[Supacell]

The GFS 00z is looking a bit tasty for the rest of this week and the weekend. There looks to be several thundery plumes moving north through different parts of the country with daytime temperatures high 20's/low 30's and night time temps high teens/low 20's along with high humidity. It is likely to feel uncomfortable, especially for sleeping, but I doubt us storm fans will be doing much of that!

 

Even today offers some possibilities, I am liking an area from the Bristol channel, through the southern and eastern Midlands towards the Wash. It'll be too far south for me today but I am saving petrol/energy for later in the week anyhow. Storms today nothing compared to what is being currently shown for later in the week (lets just hope they come off!). 

 

So several bites of the cherries, if you live in the western portion of the UK you probably need to be watching Thursday night/Friday - if you live in the middle slice then it is Friday afternoon/evening and if you live in the east it is Friday night/Saturday on current GFS run.

[Captain Shortwave]

Certainly thinking that we have a big chance from Friday night onwards through to Sunday/

ECM

We can see a disturbance developing over central France, this over the course of Saturday moves north/north west

By Saturday night it is sitting slap bang over the UK

But instead of clearing north, the low will stall and start to pull away south east into the continent. 

So drying out by Monday, though some thunderstorms could still occur in the south east.

 

There could be a large mix of potential imported storms as well as home grown ones under the shallow low pressure system.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Bbc just warning of spectacular thunderstorms on Saturday

 Well that's put the tin lid on the whole thing then 

[William Grimsley]

Hopefully it doesn't get too squally or you might end up

No crossing the English Channel will be quite calm I would think by then.

[William Grimsley]

I wouldn't be so certain yet. I expectant changes still yet as it's only Tuesday!

Yeah, I'm not getting my hopes up until I get to France as we always say nothing much gets over here from the continent. If I don't get anything Thursday Night then Friday Night into Saturday is my next hope as I travel through a large area of precipitation and high instability from the Rennes area to Ile De Re.

[Harps]

ECMWF precip charts on wunderground show a direct hit for much of the country on Saturday with storms moving due north, it won't of course play out as expected and probably won't be as severe/interesting as forecast but promising signs so far

[poseidon]

Liking the look of this one for the SE - overnight imports a go go......

 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Yeah, I'm not getting my hopes up until I get to France as we always say nothing much gets over here from the continent. If I don't get anything Thursday Night then Friday Night into Saturday is my next hope as I travel through a large area of precipitation and high instability from the Rennes area to Ile De Re.

You should see some awesome storms I'd imagine. Ile de re is such a nice place aswell !!

[A.J]

I always look forward to Nick F's convective outlooks, but let's just say, having just looked at the overnight output, I'm REALLY looking forward to it! 

 

 

El Apocalypso is coming!

[William Grimsley]

You should see some awesome storms I'd imagine. Ile de re is such a nice place aswell !!

1500 j/kg shown on our route!

Edited July 16, 2014 by William Grimsley

[William Grimsley]

"Friday night may see a more widespread risk of thunderstorm move up from the south, initially across southern areas early Saturday morning, before storms spread north across central and northern areas during Saturday, with very warm and sunny conditions too." This "widespread risk" of thunderstorms will be originating from where I am staying near Rennes. Hopefully I'll give you a head start.   

[Speedway Slider]

What's likely to kick-off in the east Midlands (Leicester) this afternoon/evening?

 

The reason I ask is because on our BBC local news/weather the potential storms over our region this afternoon has been downgraded to only light and patchy light rain!! Also thunderstorm bias has gone from our region Thurs, Fri, Sat and morphed into showers with Sunday being heavy, but not a single hint of the apocalyptic storms being mentioned on main national BBC forecast!!!!!

Edited July 16, 2014 by Speedway Slider