Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[Milhouse]

The hot spell has also been extended 12hrs by the UKMO 12z over this mornings 0z

 

 

 

[legritter]

Good afternoon gang ,iv just had a short break and after just looking at current charts and Posts it looks like a very interesting time is coming up later this week Its good when our hobby gets an injection of action from Mother nature .brilliant that we have plenty of info on our forum with constantly updated charts and discussions a real learning platform .so as pressure falls over and to our south as the week progresses i personally will be watching those updated Fax charts Hoping for a repeat of late june 2012 ,

I flew back into England that day from Canada and could see Mother natures boiling pot of fun just getting ready to unleash its cargo ,Certainly looking like this forum will grow in numbers ,The best weather forum around ,  

[Milhouse]

High pressure already ridging into the SE by next monday and extending northwards during the rest of the low-res part of the GFS. Summer-like weather set to continue beyond next weekend if that is true.

 

 

[phil nw.]

Be careful what you wish for the 2012 storms delivered this to my back garden along with 1000s of others causing millions of £s worth of damage to cars and roofs etc. Was exciting though lol

ST this is not about current model discussion so it's been moved here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79882-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2014/

[Summer Sun]

First signs of it heat arrive on Wednesday

 

 

Widespread heat for England and Wales by Thursday 30c looking very possible for parts of the south

 

 

Another hot one for Friday again temps into the low 30's for parts of the south is more than possible

 

 

Saturday again sees more heat this time more so for the east with 30c possible once more

 

 

Into Sunday and the heat persists for the south and east maybe not hitting 30c but temps still in the high 20's

 

 

If anything the heat has upgraded this afternoon with it lasting through-out the weekend for the south and east

[IDO]

^^^ Then again GEM D6-D10:    

 

Though GFS trending away from this after running with this a couple of days ago. Control also hinting at a quick pressure recovery around D8:

 

 

GEFS 60:40 support for Op; the mean: 

 

The rest not as bad as GEM but have lower pressure over the UK around D9.

 

 

[Milhouse]

The GEFS 12z mean really does squeeze the weekends unsettled spell from both ends. First it has the heat lasting longer with the 15c isotherm just off the SE coast on Saturday. Secondly it has pressure quickly rising with the 1020mb pressure line into the SW by the following Tuesday.

 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Some interesting output tonight. Very warm or hot during the second half of the week and this possibly extending into the weekend.  Thunderstorms look likely given heights are not particularly high, this aided further by developments south of the UK with a thundery low developing as the cool Atlantic air engages the heat over France. 

Certainly movements to the ECM solution this afternoon. The GEM throws that arctic high again, which is the type of evolution which I personally have started labeling as "the model going off on one". GFS and ens going more towards another Euro ridge albeit less amplified than this weeks.

 

One last thing. The GFS control, no Atlantic breakdown occurs whatever next weekend with the jet steering northwest over the UK, we still get the thundery low but no Atlantic air makes it into Europe. That's interesting though probably going way too far the other way.

Edited July 13, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

 

 

One last thing. The GFS control, no Atlantic breakdown occurs whatever next weekend with the jet steering northwest over the UK, we still get the thundery low but no Atlantic air makes it into Europe. That's interesting though probably going way too far the other way.

 

 

the ecm op headed that way this evening too with the upper trough becoming cut off as the ridge extends across the top to meet the sceuro heights. this has been a repeating theme of the season so should not be discarded.

 

edit:  though this op solution seems rather progressive re the resultant block

Edited July 13, 2014 by bluearmy

[shaky]

Once again ecm is showing an unbelievably hot plume for the end of the week!!ecm is just not backing down at all.......

Ecm keeps the hot weather up to 192 hours!!big change from the last run!!very good runs from the 12z runs this evening for the hot weather folk!!

Edited July 13, 2014 by shaky

[knocker]

Yes the ECM HRES poses a problematic situation over the weekend with this slack area of low pressure. Certainly on Friday temps could nudge in to the 90s in the south east and still hot for the next couple of days with perhaps a hint of convective activity Saturday but not going there this far out.

Edited July 13, 2014 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

the 12z ecm is having a laugh, nice to see but surely one to be taken with a large pinch of salt. if the anomaly charts supported such an evolution then ok, reason to hope, until they do its fantasy.

[phil nw.]

What's becoming apparent is the push of any cooler unsettled conditions around the weekend is becoming weaker.

There's a lot of continental heat around towards the end of the week and it look's increasingly likely that it isn't going to be swept away smoothly as previously forecasted a couple of days ago.

The modeled weekend low around the UK looks like filling as the parent trough eases away north.The Azores high pushes north early next week.

GFS mean

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m9.gif

 

we could well see a return to warmer and sunny conditions away from the far north west much sooner than first thought.

[Captain Shortwave]

the 12z ecm is having a laugh, nice to see but surely one to be taken with a large pinch of salt. if the anomaly charts supported such an evolution then ok, reason to hope, until they do its fantasy.

Ha I didn't see that coming though there is no reason to suggest that we couldn't get a weak cut off low developing over Europe with the Scandi high still present, though the Azores high looks well overblown here.

To be honest for anyone who likes heat, this sort of chart would certainly get people ramping

Absolute beauty of a southerly plume and with the low stalling lasts well into the weekend. Temperatures in any longer sunny spells will comfortably get into the low 30s here. The storm potential here is also very big with low heights providing instability to the fire.

Edited July 13, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[ANYWEATHER]

Just remember that the Ecm is extreme in its output,both gfs and ecm will more than likely back down from tonights output.And folks please dont get to disappointed as the weather will be quite different by the end of the week on what models are saying now...on tablet so no pictures...

Edited July 13, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Costa Del Fal]

Just remember that the Ecm is extreme in its output,both gfs and ecm will more than likely back down from tonights output.

Why should they?

 

Of course changes are likely but what do you think makes these particular outputs wrong? Just as valid as any others surely?

 

It is without doubt the charts this evening offer a pretty humid, sultry and hot solution especially for England. ECM would certainly be touching the 90f mark I would have thought with GFS touching 86/88f. It seems to me its heights over the Arctic which keep getting overplayed and hence why a relaxation of any unsettled weather seems to occur.

Edited July 13, 2014 by Costa Del Fal

[Man With Beard]

Well my forecast from last Wednesday of a week of daily maxes above 25C could possibly become two weeks. 25C has been exceeded every day since Thursday, tomorrow is the only day this week which may struggle to get there, and the "breakdown" this coming weekend probably won't be sufficient to wash the warm air out.

At a first glance, the NOAA anomoly doesn't look great:

 

but at this time of year, if the centre of the trough cannot get to the UK, we keep a SW flow, meaning a weak cold front influencing us for a day or so, not enough potency to wash out the warmth and within a couple of days pressure starts to rise again. GFS 12Z at T168 has a good example of how this translates: main trough to the west, a front pushing round the trough:

 

yet the uppers are like this:

[knocker]

the 12z ecm is having a laugh, nice to see but surely one to be taken with a large pinch of salt. if the anomaly charts supported such an evolution then ok, reason to hope, until they do its fantasy.

 

Which anomaly chart?

[knocker]

What's becoming apparent is the push of any cooler unsettled conditions around the weekend is becoming weaker.

There's a lot of continental heat around towards the end of the week and it look's increasingly likely that it isn't going to be swept away smoothly as previously forecasted a couple of days ago.

The modeled weekend low around the UK looks like filling as the parent trough eases away north.The Azores high pushes north early next week.

GFS mean

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m9.gif

 

we could well see a return to warmer and sunny conditions away from the far north west much sooner than first thought.

 

I think that a pretty good assessment although the situation is very knife edgy to momentarily lapse into meteorological speak.

[ANYWEATHER]

Why should they?Of course changes are likely but what do you think makes these particular outputs wrong? Just as valid as any others surely?It is without doubt the charts this evening offer a pretty humid, sultry and hot solution especially for England. ECM would certainly be touching the 90f mark I would have thought with GFS touching 86/88f. It seems to me its heights over the Arctic which keep getting overplayed and hence why a relaxation of any unsettled weather seems to occur.

Just look for yourself and see how the model output changes from tomorrow onwards....no doubt about a plume of heat, but the devil will be in the detail.. Edited July 13, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[bluearmy]

Knocks, those anomolys are based on the op?

[knocker]

Knocks, those anomolys are based on the op?

 

Yup b, the HRES.

[mushymanrob]

Which anomaly chart?

noaa both of them. currently suggest trough dominated upper patter. sorry on tablet, cant post them.also should have said in fi, the ecm run upto c t144 is pretty safe, its beyond that i was referring to. Edited July 13, 2014 by mushymanrob

[Captain Shortwave]

No surprise that the ECM was rather optimistic..... about week 2

Still it is showing signs that the Azores high may simply ridge back into the UK after the potentially potent thundery spell next weekend. Even the ECM mean shows some very high 850s for a decent period of time with slightly cooler air filtering eastwards by Sunday.

 

So if the ECM ens are to be believed, then turning very warm or hot later this week, a thundery spell of weather over the weekend followed by slightly cooler and fresher weather, but still with plenty of fine and warm weather.

[knocker]

Not a massive difference between the ECM ens and the HRES ops for the 500mb anomaly.

Edited July 13, 2014 by knocker