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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

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A brand new thread for July, And the remaining few hours of this Month. 

 

Will July produce a lengthy "Hot" spell...? There are sure tentative signs showing, So lets see where we go from here.

 

Please be friendly, Keep on Topic, And respect others.

 

Many Thanks, Please continue.

 

PM.

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Just a quick question before July really starts in the morning: what is the likelihood of this sort of summer leading up to a Very Cold Winter? What is the main model to look at to understand the impact of one season on the next?

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nice post with good selection of charts to illustrate

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The trend for lower heights to fight back the Azores High continues. The GEM has lower pressure out till D10:

 

T90:  post-14819-0-46661900-1404195491_thumb.p  D10: post-14819-0-89232000-1404195514_thumb.p

 

GFS op has a different scenario with a cut off low so temps better and some possible stormy downpours: post-14819-0-05236300-1404195661_thumb.p

 

The control is more an east/west split: post-14819-0-68721900-1404195805_thumb.p Mean confirms trend, D10: post-14819-0-13266700-1404195869_thumb.p

 

UKMO at D6: post-14819-0-55382000-1404195901_thumb.g  Navgem at T180: post-14819-0-21927900-1404197073_thumb.p

 

The July CFS anomaly:   post-14819-0-71450800-1404196191_thumb.ppost-14819-0-87311900-1404195947_thumb.p

 

ECM has the Azores High edging slightly further east (ties in with its mean of yesterday) so by D8: post-14819-0-85950600-1404197001_thumb.g

 

Though by D9 it is still being held back with the cool uppers still over the UK: post-14819-0-72619800-1404197373_thumb.gpost-14819-0-59503800-1404197386_thumb.g

 

I do think GEM has over done the intensity of the lower pressure in our locale and suspect it will be a slacker mix. All agree that the UK will have four days at least of cooler temps. London from Saturday, earlier and longer for up north:

 

post-14819-0-72169400-1404196797_thumb.g

 

Also hinting at the trend towards a possible unsettled early July at least. Of course this is only the current indications and may all change for the better in following runs.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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A look at the weekend from ECM

 

Friday sees a band of rain moving slowly southeast across the country with some strong winds in the north west

 

Posted Image

 

By Saturday the band of rain is continues its journey south east wards it should most parts early on to leave a dry day with sunny spells though parts of the south and south east could hang onto some light rain and cloud most of the day

 

Posted Image

 

Sunday sunny spells and the odd shower is the best guess at this range given we only have the 00z charts

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

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Morning all :)

 

I'm not as bullish as some on here this morning - the trend over the last couple of days seem to this observer to be to worsen conditions for the coming weekend. The 06Z GFS Operational chart for Sunday morning:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014070106/gfs-0-120.png?6

 

That's a long way from a summery chart to my eyes and the trough doesn't clear off quickly either:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014070106/gfs-0-168.png?6

 

Again, for all the talk of a ridging Azores HP, this still doesn't scream "summer" to me. Not as bad as the GEM chart for the same time:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014070100/gem-0-174.png?00

 

Chart of the day for hay fever sufferers. This morning's ECM at the same time, while more settled, is a long way from a heat wave:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014070100/ECM1-168.GIF?01-12

 

There's not a lot in the models this morning to suggest any kind of hot weather (thankfully). As long as we keep pressure high to the SW and draw in an Atlantic WNW flow, it'll be warm and pleasant without being hot and humid.

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GFS 06z isn't interested in anything settled next week with low pressure refusing to move

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

If GFS was right we'd be looking at the wettest week of summer so far

The met office are not as bullish about a pressure rise either they still expect more settled conditions to develop but but they are now saying "for a few days"

Edited by Polar Maritime
Please refrain from copy and pasting MET forecasts in here, Many Thanks.
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Seems to me the further south and west you are the conditions "should" be more settled going by these....

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif...( i know 3+days running) along with these...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif being similar to each other gives a better view to where we are going...

 

 

the Met update has surprised me today tbh i was expecting the outlook to be as good as yesterday,that said i remember reading once GP said stick to the ensemble means so tbh thats what i do.

i cant post link to the charts as i do not know if im allowed to reproduce them from the site i get them from but i have found the..(ECMWF) ones to be very good so far this summer and like i said it looks to me like the further south and west you are the better the weather will be.

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Day 8 and each model has low pressure affecting the UK, GEM is the worst of the bunch.

 

Posted Image

 

 

Seems to me the further south and west you are the conditions "should" be more settled going by these....

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif...( i know 3+days running) along with these...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif being similar to each other gives a better view to where we are going...

 

 

the Met update has surprised me today tbh i was expecting the outlook to be as good as yesterday,that said i remember reading once GP said stick to the ensemble means so tbh thats what i do.

i cant post link to the charts as i do not know if im allowed to reproduce them from the site i get them from but i have found the..(ECMWF) ones to be very good so far this summer and like i said it looks to me like the further south and west you are the better the weather will be.

 

16-32 Met forecast is largely based from the Euro ensembles.

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Day 8 and each model has low pressure affecting the UK, GEM is the worst of the bunch.

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

16-32 Met forecast is largely based from the Euro ensembles.

cheers for that,i didnt know that,they say you learn something new everyday :good:

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The outlook is dire, if you're looking for a continuation of summer, and leaning more towards a low pressure, below average temperatures and very wet scenario as it stands. I'd be very surprised if this changed in the next 3 days but it is possible it could backtrack towards something more settled (as it happened last month). That said models are generally singing from the same hymnsheet with a few minor differences. As the models detail it now, we are looking at the wettest, coolest spell of the Summer so far.

Edited by SP1986
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i think you're being overly pessimistic there mate...

i don't think the outlook is at all dire, to me its shaping up to be a pretty average summer, albeit so far lacking any proper but short lives hot spells. plenty of nice summery weather about, interspersed with wetter more unsettled spells. no heatwave but no monsoon, better then most recent summers.

 

Having looked at the precipitation totals to Wednesday morning I agree with you on the no monsoon bit the west and parts of Scotland do look quite wet though with totals approaching 80mm for some parts where as England and Wales totals are around 15mm to 25mm though totals could well be higher for the high ground

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

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Worth noting, do we not think that only yesterday, it was wall-to-wall sunshine next week after the weekend's blip according to the models. (OK, I exaggerate, but you take the point).  Now summer's over because the GFS at least has retreated from that today (OK, hyperbole is my hobby on this post!).  There is lots of time for it to flip back.

 

Take a look at the ensembles for Herts:

 Posted Image

 

 

You will note that to a greater or lesser degree all members agree on a pressure recovery from Sunday, although the odd rogue goes off message mid-week.  The control and op runs are, whilst not outliers, amongst the lower members for pressure with the mean c. 7-8 mb above the op.

 

It seems to me that based on these charts (and indeed earlier runs), uncertainty for next week is currently very high, although a pressure increase to some extent (maybe insufficient for fine weather admittedly) is very likely for the south at least.

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One of the key reasons for pressure struggling to rise next week takes place well to our north.

Posted Image

The WAA shifting westwards from the Russian/Scandi ridge prevents the low from clearing away northwards. Now these east to west ridges have been notorious at being over played by the models which tend to weaken them as we approach T0.

 

Noting the importance the latest GFS run has a weaker ridge

Posted Image

Same time but core low heights are further north west and pulling away as opposed to sinking south east. We do get left in a slack north westerly, but more a scattered showers scenario with respectable temperatures.

 

That Russian block is looking like it means business so we need the Azores high to help out and reorientate the jet to get us in the mix if it is possible.

 

UKMO

Posted Image

No ridging westwards over the top of the low, but we still end up with a shallow low over the UK due to the residual cold pooling. 

 

As for week 2, anything is possible from here to be honest. Could end up turning hot and dry or cool and wet from here.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Precipitation totals from GFS upto t192 show the driest weather next week for the south and parts of the east it looks pretty wet for the Lake District and western Scotland with totals approaching 70mm and 80mm respectively

 

Posted Image

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Well this is different from the ECM

Posted Image

Low pressure ejects northwards with high pressure building in from the south. The tropical storm is also being handled differently.

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Well a better ECM this evening not perfect as winds would be coming in from the NW so always warmest in the south west but its better than the 00z

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

00z to compare the changes

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

t192 and t216 also looking better

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

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This would do:

 

Posted Image

 

Trouble is we have the ECM's pronounced height bias at that range to consider (as I'm Dreaming has regularly pointed out).

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Models useless until they decide the strength and landfall point of Author. I'll stick with the UKMO at day 6 for now..

 

Posted Image

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ECM could well be too bullish in week 2 with building the Azores high,compared to recent ens means and GFS.

The upper trough developing to our north west looks set to remain as a shallow feature next week uncomfortably close to the UK.

Worst case scenario ala GFS op would give some widespread showery activity into week 2.

 

Tonight;s GFS mean-day 8

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m8.gif

 

Recent comments on here that the stubborn Russian ridge may lock that trough in situ and this is indeed a possibility.

Overall although not an overly warm setup it could develop into quite a decent fine spell but for this modeled shallow low that at the moment looks to be the fly in the ointment.

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Looking at the upper anomalies the NOAA 6-10 has the trough orientated NW/SE but a suggested movement to the east. This is a scenario that the GFS and ECM are in some agreement. This tends to lead to a situation where we have warm air to the NE and SW with a large colder pool over Europe. The question is will the Azores high establish a more permanent ridge over the UK and even perhaps linking to the Scandinavian ridge or will it be transient as the trough reestablishes itself. I think the linking wishful thinking but it's not beyond the bounds of reason that the AZ may play a more prominent role. All in all in doesn't look like an unpleasant scenario.

post-12275-0-47489800-1404280586_thumb.g

post-12275-0-48041600-1404280604_thumb.p

post-12275-0-65882400-1404280612_thumb.p

post-12275-0-40507300-1404280647_thumb.g

Edited by knocker
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Models trending very warm into wek 2, thouh as of yet no definite direction. The GFS and GEM want to try and link the Azores and Russian ridges which the ECM is more progressive in the Atlantic jet and we simply end up with another ridge from the Azores whilst the ridge to the east flattens.

Posted Image

2 runs in a row the ECM has done this so maybe this is potentially the way forward.

UKMO looks the odd one out with the looping ridge over to Greenland suggesting a UK trough.

Posted Image

Big difference between itself and the ECM at this timeframe.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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