Storm and Convective Discussion 23rd June Onwards

[Chris101]

Hi Chris,

 

I'm about 70 miles north north west of you as the crow flies and the sun hasn't broken through the cloud at all today.  It's cloudy, miserable and murky.  I'd welcome some sun before the convective bit, but I'm telling it as it is here and convection doesn't happen though unbroken cloud

Not always the case, the overcast cloud can clearly be seen on Sat and the convergence line can be seen building underneath it, the upper cloud sheet has also thinned a lot in the last couple of hours.

[Dancerwithwings]

A few kicking off now.... It can only get better http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

 

Edited June 27, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[TonyH]

Things kicking off one near MK/ Bedford now

Edited June 27, 2014 by TonyH

[Mapantz]

Just heard thunder in bedford!!!¬ no sferics on the radar to confirm it yet though

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Im expecting some sunshine to break through after this storm and then the action should really kick off afterwards. Lincs could see some action shortly as this line of storms intensifies.

This is looking now more tornadic by the minute. Winds are all over the place!

[Tom Jarvis]

Ok send them down to the south east u greedy lot lol hardly been a storm here all summer

[richep]

Looking like central/southern England are gonna fare best today

Had some very heavy rain here a little earlier but I'm not too confident of anything for my area today.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Not always the case, the overcast cloud can clearly be seen on Sat and the convergence line can be seen building underneath it, the upper cloud sheet has also thinned a lot in the last couple of hours.

I'm not getting into an argument, just stating what I believe is what is/will happen at my location.

 

The convergence line you speak of looks as though it get considerably weaker the further East you go.  North West Norfolk will indeed benefit, I have my doubts as to whether it will even rain here

Edited June 27, 2014 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[BrickFielder]

 Interesting divergence of the air aloft during this afternoon which may help convection.

 

At lower levels some convergence which should provide a little low level vorticity and I have picked out a few areas that I think are interesting.

 

In terms of where the occluded front is late afternoon and some potential troughing then I have highlighted some areas likely to see some positive vorticity advection.

 

In terms of where the best instability is then I think we have some moisture pooling (higher dewpoints) towards east Anglia which could iniate strong storms.

 

It does look as though surface based instability might be a little limited under the occluded front in places. This would mean updrafts would be weaker here and unable to lift and low level vorticity.

 

 

I do want to highlight one particular area where perhaps there might be a smidgeon of a low level jet. This would increase the difference in wind speed between the surface and cloud bases providing another (low level convergence ) source of low level vorticity.

 

Nmm suggests some pretty potent rainfall in places.

 

 

Stronger winds aloft to the south and perhaps a little turning of the winds especially in the east could just about produce a super cell. My gut feeling is that we should watch an area from perhaps somewhere near Northampton through to suffolk and Norfolk from mid afternoon onwards for more severe storms. Earlier in the afternoon keep an eye on parts of Wales.

 

 

[TheToastPeople]

Screenshot_2014-06-27-12-00-40.png

Wayy i thought i wasnt going mad! had about 6 nice deep rumbles as it passed by. Will fuel up the car and go chasing in the next hour!

[Dami]

Just heard thunder in bedford!!!¬ no sferics on the radar to confirm it yet though

Thought was missing the edge of a shower and then  thunderclap

[Lauren]

In laymans terms, how do storms form in overcast conditions?

[Norfolk Sheep]

Thunder here, plus moderate rain

[Mapantz]

It's starting to liven up now, Peterborough or thereabouts have quite an active storm going on.

Edited June 27, 2014 by Mapantz

[Greeny]

Im just before swaffham on the a47, under darker clouds with light rain. The darker clouds back lit by sunlight to the south and brighter to the North.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

 Interesting divergence of the air aloft during this afternoon which may help convection.

a300hpa16.png

 

At lower levels some convergence which should provide a little low level vorticity and I have picked out a few areas that I think are interesting.

alowwind16.png

 

In terms of where the occluded front is late afternoon and some potential troughing then I have highlighted some areas likely to see some positive vorticity advection.

a700hpavorticity16.png

 

In terms of where the best instability is then I think we have some moisture pooling (higher dewpoints) towards east Anglia which could iniate strong storms.

amlcape16.png

 

It does look as though surface based instability might be a little limited under the occluded front in places. This would mean updrafts would be weaker here and unable to lift and low level vorticity.

 

asbcape16.png

 

I do want to highlight one particular area where perhaps there might be a smidgeon of a low level jet. This would increase the difference in wind speed between the surface and cloud bases providing another (low level convergence ) source of low level vorticity.

a925wind16.png

 

Nmm suggests some pretty potent rainfall in places.

 

cloudprecip14.pngcloudprecip16.png

 

Stronger winds aloft to the south and perhaps a little turning of the winds especially in the east could just about produce a super cell. My gut feeling is that we should watch an area from perhaps somewhere near Northampton through to suffolk and Norfolk from mid afternoon onwards for more severe storms. Earlier in the afternoon keep an eye on parts of Wales.

Excellent post.  Interesting how much time difference there is between the BBC forecasts and the NMM.  BBC still going for heavy rain here in the next couple of hours, NMM developing it once out over the sea late afternoon, but a belter late in the evening

[SnowJoke]

Thought was missing the edge of a shower and then  thunderclap

 

Just got torrential rain for 10 mins in MK a while back, road was like a river. Sky didn't look to dark as the storm was still forming but as it moved off towards the NE the clouds were absolutely huge, some of the biggest cumulus congestus i've seen. I'm thinking some of these storms will drop very large hail later on judging by cloud height.

[TheToastPeople]

Thought was missing the edge of a shower and then  thunderclap

Today will be our day dami!!!

[Greeny]

Wow I was not expecting that rain rate. Reasonably intense downpour just now while going through the drive through!

[A.J]

Today will be our day dami!!!

It is supposed to be our day (the west country) !......still, lets see what happens later

[TEITS]

My storm map I posted yesterday is still looking good.

 

 

 

Only update is the area below could see much stronger storms over the next 3-4hrs.

 

 

 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wayy i thought i wasnt going mad! had about 6 nice deep rumbles as it passed by. Will fuel up the car and go chasing in the next hour!

Think I shall do the same after work what's your target area to chase ?

[Dami]

Just got torrential rain for 10 mins in MK a while back, road was like a river. Sky didn't look to dark as the storm was still forming but as it moved off towards the NE the clouds were absolutely huge, some of the biggest cumulus congestus i've seen. I'm thinking some of these storms will drop very large hail later on judging by cloud height.

Yep I saw how big those clouds were going, I may even stick my neck out and say there could of been the start of some rotation. Storm was developing in front of my eyes, maybe a couple miles away and it did look very dark out back too.

 

Today will be our day dami!!!

And it is rather long over due!!! Let's hope that we get something worth waiting for

Edited June 27, 2014 by Dami

[Norfolk Sheep]

Wow I was not expecting that rain rate. Reasonably intense downpour just now while going through the drive through!

Pretty heavy here too, not much thunder - about 4 rumbles. The drizzly stuff cleared, sun came out for about 15 mins then what between the RAF, wheelie bins and such like there was thunder

[TEITS]

Interesting sat pic.

 

Clearly see the line of storms developing across my area.

 

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

 

Note though the storm developing within the clearer area across towards Northampton. This could develop into a beast over the next couple of hrs.