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Paul

South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat

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Oh dear, just watched the BBC forecast and I'm a Tad scared now lol unless it's like last nights storm then I'll be fine.

Will it be the same sort of high level storms or will it be different?

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Oh dear, just watched the BBC forecast and I'm a Tad scared now lol unless it's like last nights storm then I'll be fine.Will it be the same sort of high level storms or will it be different?

What did they say? more storms to come or this is it?

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Temperature rising very hot and humid, I think the storms will be very severe tonight will keep an eye if wind picks up around 10pm like last night from the North West could be a very good sign for things to come, otherwise I will keep watching out for any development maybe after 6is, but like the storms this morning these were not even forecast so they could pop up anywhere :)

Edited by Chloe

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28C at 9am just across the channel. Somewhere in Kent or Sussex going to recorded the highest temp of 33C late this afternoon ? I fancy the southern slopes of the weald with minimum sea breeze affect today.

26c in the Gatwick area at 10am and 30c near LeTouguet just across the channel. Some hot air now arriving in the far SE.

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Clear blue skies here, warm n humid too The storm conditions factory is up and running :)

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Oh dear, just watched the BBC forecast and I'm a Tad scared now lol unless it's like last nights storm then I'll be fine.Will it be the same sort of high level storms or will it be different?

The suspense is killing me.....what did they say :cc_confused:

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Amber warning just issued. Cant post link as on phone....

Edited by LeighD

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Looking at the radar I would say it is about to clear your locale, so you can go back to the vest and shorts in no time :)

In some jeans shorts today totally respectable and a cotton top. Plenty factor 50.

 

popped outside and it feels tropical. Had the dibs on 5 storms here so far and more than happy, any more would be greedy. Amazing weather atm. :yahoo:

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Looks like central southern areas are in the firing line :-)

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Here it is ...

 

post-5986-0-61424300-1405680268_thumb.pn

 

Which is quite some contrast to Estofex which primarily sees the risk as the SE,

 

post-5986-0-36864700-1405680353.txt

 

 

Edited by Sparkicle

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The suspense is killing me.....what did they say :cc_confused:

Basically gonna be worst than last night and metoffice have issued an amber warning!!

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Several areas of heavy, thundery showers will develop over England and Wales from Friday night before moving northwards during Saturday. Not everywhere within the warning area will see thunderstorms, and indeed some spells of warm sunshine are expected at times, but where thunderstorms do form, some torrential downpours are likely with frequent lightning, large hail and locally strong gusts. Significant flooding is possible where these do occur from surface water as well as from small, fast-responding watercourses.

 

The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption from any of these elements.

The very warm and humid airmass across the UK will become increasingly unstable on Friday night and through Saturday. This will lead to the development of areas of intense thunderstorms, these moving northwards across the UK and affecting different areas at various times through the day. In this situation, large amounts of energy are available in the atmosphere and this, coupled with high moisture content, can lead to torrential downpours along with frequent lightning activity, large hail and locally strong gusts. As is usually the case with thunderstorms, broad areas can be identified as at risk some time in advance but detail will remain very uncertain until very close to the event. Some areas will miss the worst of the storms whilst nearby spots experience severe downpours with some localised flooding, so the public are advised stay in touch with the latest forecasts and warnings through Saturday.

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I am in the amber warming too, here's to what the next 24 hours and beyond bring...

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Lots and lots of altocumulus ( good sign ) and humidity has shot up

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Here it is ...

 

Posted Imagemo_ww.png

 

Which is quite some contrast to Estofex which primarily sees the risk as the SE,

 

Posted Imageshowforecast.cgi.png

 

It does look like that there is some uncertainty from the GEFS ensemble suite with some runs showing no rain for London and some showing loads!

 

post-5986-0-42491000-1405681431_thumb.pn

 

However, that said, looking at GFS spaghetti plots, one can kind of make sense of it. Estofex is going for early on in the period, and the MetO is going for the whole of Saturday,

 

Estofex warning,

 

post-5986-0-97261300-1405681483_thumb.gi

 

Met Office warning,

 

post-5986-0-67368300-1405681491_thumb.gi

 

Still, I think there's loads of uncertainty on this sort of setup .... but the precipitation spaghetti plots do explain the warning areas.

 

Everything to play for until radar shows otherwise

Edited by Sparkicle

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Im really excited about tonight. I was busy all yesterday and went to bed at 23:00 not realising storms were around... woke up at 05:00 to rumbles of thunder an heavy rain. I was gutted that i slept through the thunder earlier in the night. Im stayiing up tonight. Not missing storms if they are on course for medway area :)

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Clouds need to clear otherwise I'm going to be disappointed.

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Sun out here now and things are getting hot and sweaty :bomb:

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Clouds need to clear otherwise I'm going to be disappointed.

 

Milky sky = inversion = CIN = cap. All the heat is being stored for later :)

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Good great fantastic I do love a good thunder storm last night was epic hopefully tonight will be even better ")

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Several areas of heavy, thundery showers will develop over England and Wales from Friday night before moving northwards during Saturday. Not everywhere bla blah blah

why go by a meto warning when they didnt even get it right last night!!

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Temperature has shot upto 26.2c and humidity at 60%! I'm way too hot already and got to go watch my son in his sports day at 2pm!!

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why go by a meto warning when they didnt even get it right last night!!

I'm not......don't trust them as far as I can throw them and with my bad knee I shouldn't be throwing anyone.

 

Seriously, though, they need to rethink how they model their forecasts as they have been going downhill fast. I was just making people aware a warning had been issued, although I think about 4 of us hit the "post" button at the same time

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Just spoke to my parents who are not that far from me and they said last nights storm did a bit of a return, I missed that and fell asleep by that point.

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