Changeover Day Moderate Risk - KS/IO/NE/SD/CO

[Paul Sherman]

Well it would not be a changeover day without a Moderate Risk - So once again a pretty decent shot at some illusive spinny things today, lets see if 2014 can actually deliver a decent Moderate Risk today.

 

Chase area to be defined next few hours.

[nsrobins]

The last few runs of RAP make a much better effort at generating ppn in the MDT area than earlier ones did.Based on the sharp DL bulge and a thin corridor of enhanced shear I'm going for Philipsburg, KS for initiation off the DL at about 22Z. 

[Nick F]

Latest HRRR run suggests some reasonable play over NE Colorado/SW Nebraska, it suggests some cells firing around 5-6pm in this area. Wind shear in this areas not too shabby with warm/moist E/NE upslope flow on the northern side of the surface low expected along CO/KS border area beneath a strong 500mb SW'erly jet - so some strong veering of winds with height. This will encourage very large hail but also a tor risk if bases can lower enough.

 

EDIT: Latest MD looks encouraging for this area too: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0995.html

Edited June 14, 2014 by Nick F

[nsrobins]

Lone supercell just gone tor warned - very close to Philipsburg KS