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Paul

Storm and convective discussion 9th June

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Loads of cloud here from the massive storms over N France, so I'll be very surprised to see anything at all. Usual boring story lol!

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Those storms over the SW Midlands are really getting going, they will pass to the west of here though.

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I don't think you can rule out anything yet?

 

Not conclusively of course not - but it has it smacked all over it.

 

Even if you look at the current radar run, everything over Wales/Midlands is tracking somewhere between N and NNE, yet the stuff leaving N France over the past however is being blasted NE/ENE.

 

I'm trying to keep everyone's expectations (including mine) realistic, as we have seen this precise setup year after year after year, and somehow both I and many others seem disappointed when the inevitable happens.

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Not too keen on the cloud heading into the south.. also reflected by the Met Office's latest precip and temp maps showing all the decent stuff up north again, as well as the temp now not getting above 21C in the SE... In fact the EURO4 shows temps staying in the teens for many in the SE, but of no sign of the activity it forecast for the SE at T+03 hours... doh!!

I could have chased north of London today but looks like that may not happen.. though there are hints of the cloud to the south/SW thinning on the latest satellite frames.. fingers crossed.

Probably just a Kent clipper at best tonight.

 
I'm resigned to there being no storms in Egham but it would be nice if other parts of the SE near enough to chase had something decent.. as am prepared to today, and today is the last potential in a while (though all other regions have a risk tomorrow..lol, so the story of this whole spell may continue with the SE the least thundery like many times recently).
 
Nice to see some storms around in other places though, 3 storms in 3 days, can only dream of that.
Edited by Evening thunder
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Yesterdays captures but the rain made it tricky to get into position so i shot from inside the car, looks like ill be out again judging by the radar :)

 

Good luck all.

 

post-12197-0-04688000-1402301296_thumb.j

 

 

post-12197-0-71756100-1402301321_thumb.j

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Here is my risk area for today.

 

post-1766-0-22747100-1402302192_thumb.jp

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Here is my risk area for today.

 

Posted ImageStorm risk.jpg

That's exactly the same as your one from the other day with your location slap bang in the centre ;)
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Sorry for the storm starved.

 

That was interesting last night here I was thinking nothing will happen bang nice storm up A46 hits us bullseye, it did look like would just miss, but crept eastwards as it moved northeast.   Had lovely shelf sadly no pics from me.

 

However paper got lovely pic lightening over refinery.   Must scared the workers.

 

http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Weather-warning-thunderstorms-torrential-rain/story-21207450-detail/story.html

 

Noticed the big cape in france is joined with smaller caper in east anglia, kent, lincolnshire.   Could that feed energy from the french storm or will north sea cause the block.

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Looks like the cloud that was coming towards the south is breaking up quite nicely actually, at least away from more southeastern counties. May be good sign for those north of London up towards the Wash and probably other places too

Edited by Evening thunder

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Looks like the cloud that was coming towards the south is breaking up quite nicely actually, at least away from more southeastern counties. May be good sign for those north of London up towards the Wash and probably other places too

Definitely brightening up here

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That's exactly the same as your one from the other day with your location slap bang in the centre ;)

Was thinking the same.

 

Lots of action taking place towards the Midlands.

 

And 'oh wow' at the Level 3 issued by Estofex.

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That's exactly the same as your one from the other day with your location slap bang in the centre ;)

Yes it is because the same area is at risk.

 

Just noticed Met O warning is the same. :clapping:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

 

Maybe the Met O forecaster who did that map also lives in Peterborough. :clapping:

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Was thinking the same. Lots of action taking place towards the Midlands. And 'oh wow' at the Level 3 issued by Estofex.

And the "high level 1" for us...but not quite like a level 3:(

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Temps already reaching 20C across E Anglia/SE. Feels very humid also.

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High humidity over sw London, far more than Friday or Saturday. Certainly a chance for some activity before mid afternoon. Isolated swirling breezes close to the ground. First post, interested in the science will slowly learn all the charts posted. Some make sense others not so easy!

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good luck to everyone today!...already some nice storms firing over the midlands

 

not expecting anything for my location though (estofex have us under a level 1 but the atmospheric parameters for here don't look that conducive to be honest) so my wait for a storm might well have to continue

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Weve just had thunder again! Thats 3 days worth now...

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Nice little line of storms heading for the West Midlands Conurbation. Looks like there is a North East motion to the electrical activity so everything will pass east of here by the looks.  They are developing really quickly too, another south of Hereford gone up in just a few frames of the NW 5 minute radar. 

 

I'm hoping the showers over Cardiff develop, they would be heading in my direction. . 

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The met office weather warnings are usually completley wrong or 50 miles or so out, so I'd just watch the satellite and radar and see what develops :)

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Light rain here in Wolverhampton (WV9) at the moment, but the sky is VERY dark and just had a crack of loud thunder.

 

I'm guessing we should have some heavy rain soon!

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Temps already reaching 20C across E Anglia/SE. Feels very humid also.

 

Yeah, my nearest station Marham recorded 19.4C at 9am and it tends to be a bit cooler than the surrounding areas in my experience. Could be interesting later.

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Nothing here of course as per normal

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