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A.J

Convective/Storm Discussion for 06/0614 - 07-06-14

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Ok, a fresh thread to tie in with the 18z model output so please continue your thoughts to the upcoming convective outbreak..

 

for reference, the previous thread page can be found here ......    -----> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80540-convective-storm-discussion-5th-june-2014-onwards/page-64#entry2982710

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Really hoping for some stunners for all of us tomorrow.

Also, I wonder if the Metoffice will update their warnings overnight as the next 4-6 hours should see some rapid development.

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Wow its boiling here in Bournemouth, windy warm air, got all windows open now

 

 

Same here in Bognor. Been warm all afternoon as well as very windy. F5 gusting F6 but still very warm and humid.

 

Nuisance having windows open, neighbours having a very noisy garden party. Bring on the rain and lightning.  :spiteful:

Edited by coldfingers

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Ok, there is a thunderstorm over the Nantes area in NW France but nothing else. I'm not going to wait any longer and will just see what happens. Good luck everyone.

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First bit of action down in the SW clearing north Cornwall now, a sign of things to come perhaps... Really hoping for some exciting/severe weather tomorrow, it's looking good..... :)

 

post-9615-0-28881000-1402089057_thumb.pn

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Was expecting a little more action to have started over Northern France by now. The stuff in the west is obviously from the cold front. I thought there would be some cells piping up way ahead of it.

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18.4c and rising humidity here in Worcester...

 

Just managed to get the car fixed today so i feel a storm chase is needed, just trying to figure out the best location.... hummm where to go i wonder.

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Been in Exmoor the last few months working, may as well have my typical moan about lack of thunderstorms because I don't see Devon and Cornwall getting anything special like back home in Bucks. 

 

Went to a lookout point earlier today about 4pm looking North across the channel to Wales and saw a hefty cell explode out of nowhere which I believe caused some heavy showers and perhaps thunder/lightning over Wales earlier, not sure. 

 

Don't think North Devon will see anything impressive in the way of lightning but perhaps Gloucester stands a better chance and I have to drive that way tomorrow. 

 

Wonder if it's worth getting up extra early to chase storms further east......

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It has only just began :good: here's hoping that we get what we deserve.

Supercell over London could you imagine how, spectacular that would be. Unlikely but a chance :)

First PPN forming over France, very potent as well. Purple echoes.

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New cell Fired from nothing to this in 15 minutes... showing Sferics!

 

post-9530-0-28187900-1402089711_thumb.jp

Edited by SnowMania

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Looks like the highest humidity will be moving north tomorrow within the front, 90-95%! 

 

post-9615-0-69235800-1402089702_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-09393100-1402089760_thumb.pn

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Usually do well for T storms here in Worcester but so far this spring they seem to be passing us by. However,judging by the latest hi res charts the sw midlands appear to be in line for the highest rainfall totals up until mid day tomorrow so fingers crossed for some spectacular action

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the mid levels are just starting to destabilize....eyes to the radar now....elevated convection is the watch word for the next 12-16  hours. Forget looking at a blank french radar over the past few hours as they are irrelevant, start looking now, as from now onwards is the period of interest

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More cells breaking out to the southeast of Lamballe, much closer to the UK and the Nantes cell has taken off.

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New cell Fired from nothing to this in 15 minutes... showing Sferics!

 

Posted ImageCaptudsdsdsdsre.JPG

Well it's rather big, could be a supercell? Seems very intense. Let's hope it grows into a MCS :D

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Well it's rather big, could be a supercell? Seems very intense. Let's hope it grows into a MCS :D

a sense of realism is needed Daniel....it is most definitely not a supercell and will not grow into an MCS........radar watch down south over biscay and france, this is tonights action developing in real time

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The one currently over Nantes looks on track to hit the UK shores around 2am going by its current progress. However, it is likely more cells will fire across the waters and also continue to do so over the UK, as we have seen already over Cornwall.

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the mid levels are just starting to destabilize....eyes to the radar now....elevated convection is the watch word for the next 12-16  hours. Forget looking at a blank french radar over the past few hours as they are irrelevant, start looking now, as from now onwards is the period of interest

Precisely...storms can erupt in, really, minutes under these conditions, particularly elevated action. I'm certainly not going to be staying up until the early hours and wait but will prob set my alarm for say 3am to have a reci :D

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a sense of realism is needed Daniel....it is most definitely not a supercell and will not grow into an MCS........radar watch down south over biscay and france, this is tonights action developing in real time

forget my reply Dan, was looking at the wrong post...doh!

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Have had a little look at skew-t's around the east region. Strangely enough it is showing more potential in Norfolk than further west in cambidgeshire and Lincolnshire all elevated however Leicestershire shows more cape and -li values and surface based. Still need to see what they look like in the morning in terms of accuracy.

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Squal line supercells born of the cold front a better possibility !!......

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