Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[Dancerwithwings]

Right, Thundery Shower v Thunderstorm, if lightning can only be formed in a cumulus nimbus (thunder cloud) i think I have spelt it correctly, what is the   difference between a thundery shower and a thunderstorm or can lightning be produced in other cloud formations if certain conditions are met, ie you get a ruddy great shower, and a single flash bang event....... If you understand what I mean....??

Atm ive been starved of anything that resembles a crash, a bang and a wallop........ So either will do me

[Dancerwithwings]

Talking of either will do me......Salvation

 

 

Wouldn't take much for them -7 cape values to be more towards the West!

Edited June 3, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Mokidugway]

Quite looking forward to my weekend of warmish drizzly weather !!!..........

[paul m]

Quite looking forward to my weekend of warmish drizzly weather !!!..........

I hope your reverse psychology works.......

[Karl83]

Good BBC weather just now - Still a way to go yet but Friday night / Saturday morning looks good for my area. All subject to change, of course.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Good BBC weather just now - Still a way to go yet but Friday night / Saturday morning looks good for my area. All subject to change, of course.

Just seen the update too. Eventhough these plumes have the tendency to shift East into the near continent suddenly at the last minute, this one feels different with the runs pulling it ever west. I may be wrong because I'm not the plume itself! If I was the plume, It (or I) would've been here in April bringing what we all love. I'm nice like that  

Edited June 3, 2014 by Ross Andrew Hemphill

[Mokidugway]

I hope your reverse psychology works.......

can only try !!!......

[William Grimsley]

I wonder how much of this rain tonight will be electrified?

[stainesbloke]

Think models are struggling at the moment, cut off Atlantic lows tend to give them problems. Hopeful the cold front will come in overnight Sat-Sun giving the SE a hot sunny day. More heat = better storms! Sun looks nice but I think it will be Fri before we have a clear idea of events. It's that word potential again lol

[legritter]

Well looking at current charts i think many could be in for an active spell of weather come fri /sat ,but as many have pointed out its all still at that uncertain stage .so lets all sleep on it and look forward till tomorrows updates ,a nice cool Stella and up early for tomorrows updates ,best of luck to all ,cheers .

[lewisosd]

Don't post here much anymore,

Just have a good old read through. Thought this however was worthy. Shelf cloud NE of Bury St Edmunds 19:30

[Harry]

ECM seems to show thundery downpours developing in the SW and moving NE through Saturday, looks the most likely outcome.

 

   

 

I'm sure there will be some storms but a lot of uncertainty obviously, though don't go expecting a repeat of June 28th 2012 with supercells and everything.

Good chart this

[Dancerwithwings]

Don't post here much anymore,

Just have a good old read through. Thought this however was worthy. Shelf cloud NE of Bury St Edmunds 19:30image.jpg

Person with head stuck in fence needs urgent help (bottom left) lol!....nice pic

[Dami]

hello all,

 

Been watching the clouds build up all around me, dark as you like, heavy showers missing me like it's going out of fashion. At least I didn't get wet on the school run, so that's some blessing.

Yellow warning for my area for thundery showers end of week.

certain doom for sure.

[ANYWEATHER]

Some pretty wet weather moving towards us from the southwest..probabaly will be less severe as it gets across to us....

[Chris K]

Good BBC weather just now - Still a way to go yet but Friday night / Saturday morning looks good for my area. All subject to change, of course.

 

Bristol? Chances of thunder? 

 

I am going to guess that around Thursday we'll start to see the downgrading and eastward push of storm chances begin to the fullest.

 

if not, the timing always seems to be perfect in the fact the rain arrives between 3-7am for us - where all it does is wee on the garden.

 

Still...the Express seem to think otherwise if you haven't read it already...http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/480038/Shock-UK-weather-warning-Tornadoes-hail-thunderstorms-and-lightning-to-ravage-Britain

 

[Freddie123]

Bristol? Chances of thunder? 

 

I am going to guess that around Thursday we'll start to see the downgrading and eastward push of storm chances begin to the fullest.

 

if not, the timing always seems to be perfect in the fact the rain arrives between 3-7am for us - where all it does is wee on the garden.

 

Still...the Express seem to think otherwise if you haven't read it already...http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/480038/Shock-UK-weather-warning-Tornadoes-hail-thunderstorms-and-lightning-to-ravage-Britain

 

oh honestly that newspaper is more like a comic every day. I'd better dig out that tin hat to protect my head on Saturday,

[Harry]

Bristol? Chances of thunder? :laugh:I am going to guess that around Thursday we'll start to see the downgrading and eastward push of storm chances begin to the fullest.if not, the timing always seems to be perfect in the fact the rain arrives between 3-7am for us - where all it does is wee on the garden.Still...the Express seem to think otherwise if you haven't read it already...http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/480038/Shock-UK-weather-warning-Tornadoes-hail-thunderstorms-and-lightning-to-ravage-Britain

This has to be one of the most shocking examples of sensationalist journalism I've ever ready...all I can say is thank heavens for Paul Michaelwaite standing firm for the credibility of Netweather :yahoo:Needless to say now that MetO have got their yellow crayon out we are doomed...doomed!!! Edited June 3, 2014 by Harry

[Eskimo]

Torrential rain here in Cottingham/Hull for the last half hour, things are starting to flood. 

[Liam J]

Escaped the showers today with a glorious sunny day! Very nice.... Now the weekend is looking better for some, mainly areas further south and east on the latest GFS with better CAPE & Li being modelled, still a way to go until we'll know the details. Hoping for further upgrades in the coming days! 

[IanR]

 

 

Still...the Express seem to think otherwise if you haven't read it already...http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/480038/Shock-UK-weather-warning-Tornadoes-hail-thunderstorms-and-lightning-to-ravage-Britain

 

thats it now folks , you know whatever sensationalist headlines they have in the express the opposite happens,I dont expect storms now, not that we would have got any here anyway

[lassie23]

thats it now folks , you know whatever sensationalist headlines they have in the express the opposite happens,I dont expect storms now, not that we would have got any here anyway

That will mean a weekend of extreme drizzle instead then!

[Dancerwithwings]

Well well well !

 

[Chris K]

So...who is going to be doing this when their thunderstorm arrives?

 

 

Saturday is currently the day to look for as we know...GFS 18Z has it ever so slightly more West again with most areas experiencing some form of deluge, be it thundery or not.

 

The end game however is still for the Low to start pushing in from the SW (at least temporarily), moving the warmest air off to the East of the country. Certainly some interest to watch before then.

Edited June 3, 2014 by Chris K

[reef]

Torrential rain here in Cottingham/Hull for the last half hour, things are starting to flood. 

Shows the difference a few miles makes, we're still dry here.

 

Annoyingly as always an onshore north-easterly breeze has kicked in here which kills convection quick. Its always a 'joy' watching the radar in these situations as showers a few miles away magically disappear!