Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[andy989]

Sky warn - SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS WALES.  Hope so, even though the models might favour the central/eastern UK for the big stuff, you cant rule out thunderstorms anywhere in these conditions.  A case of now casting and as the May storms showed for me, they can pop up anywhere given the right conditions and fast. Good luck all, we are all in with good chances I'd say, even if some of us dont get the big stuff but get something....its better than nothing. 

[weatherobsuk]

Noticed some slight convective rain here earlier, barely noticeable though. Hoping to see some AcCas in the early morning hours as the plume hasn't quite reached here yet.

[IanR]

I don't buy this whole headaches being a sign of a thunderstorm malarkey. IMO it's probably due to slight dehydration owing to the fact it's warm and humid outside. People just associate it with thunderstorms because sometimes thunderstorms are associated with warm, muggy weather. The myth perpetuated from there. Drink a pint of water 

 

I've rolled my eyes a few times when people I know have said there's storms on the way because they happened to have a headache....I knew there wasn't any storms on the way but all I can do is grin and nod slowly lol.

this saying about thunderstorms and headaches did have some truth a couple of decades ago, the type of warm sulty weather that brings the headaches on for some people was almost a guarantee of a thunderstorm happening in a given location where the humidity was occuring ,  now of course.......

[ancientsolar]

Sky warn - SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS WALES.  Hope so, even though the models might favour the central/eastern UK for the big stuff, you cant rule out thunderstorms anywhere in these conditions.  A case of now casting and as the May storms showed for me, they can pop up anywhere given the right conditions and fast. Good luck all, we are all in with good chances I'd say, even if some of us dont get the big stuff but get something....its better than nothing. 

I hope so to! Absolutely love thunderstorms, if I could find my proper camera I would record them like I used to :/ ~ then we had a few years of no storms.. and my charger is temporarily hiding at home.

[Snowshine]

Most recent GFS shows major downgrades in CAPE and LI, especially across Wales and the Midlands. If these models turn out to be correct then I am not expecting any severe storms whatsoever, the maximum CAPE in the Midlands is 500j/kg, I mean??? That may not even trigger a storm... With an LI Of -2!

Edited June 6, 2014 by Cumulonimbus123

[andy989]

I hope so to! Absolutely love thunderstorms, if I could find my proper camera I would record them like I used to :/ ~ then we had a few years of no storms.. and my charger is temporarily hiding at home.

My batteries are on charge, I'll be on standby all night >.< 

[Liam J]

Those of us further west and in a panic have a bit of faith, the Met's thinking sounds pretty good to me! It does sound like areas further west still have a lot to play for...    Trying to remain positive 

 

Heavy, thundery rain is expected to affect parts of the UK on Saturday. Some initial thundery outbreaks, possibly accompanied by frequent lightning, may arrive from around midnight, but it is later in the night and during the morning that the south will be at risk from more widespread thundery developments and locally intense rainfall. The focus is then expected to shift into northern England, southwest Scotland and eastern fringes of Northern Ireland during the afternoon, while parts of southern Britain see improving conditions.The public should be aware of the potential for localised flooding due to the intensity of the downpours although the location of the heaviest rainfall remains uncertain.

Edited June 6, 2014 by Liam J

[Ben Sainsbury]

Most recent GFS 6z shows major downgrades in CAPE and LI, especially across Wales and the Midlands. If these models turn out to be correct then I am not expecting any severe storms whatsoever, the maximum CAPE in the Midlands is 500j/kg, I mean??? That may not even trigger a storm... With an LI Of -2!

image.jpg

Then you compare that to another gfs on a different website and LI's are reaching -8 so it's all mixed. But considering there are many other ingredients I wouldn't just base the risk on CAPE and LI's.

[A.J]

AJ, there's bound to be despondency from some when they see the usual adjustments to what was once great looking modelling. In those charts that Brickfielder has posted (and a lot of others that have been posted) it is clear to see that there is no wriggle room for my location and areas further west. The best precipitation rates are clearly edging east and IMO it's pertinent to discuss what is being shown by the latest modelling. Some areas will get clobbered, I've no doubt about that, but for me and others it's knife edge stuff. I suspect there's others on here who feel just as downbeat but don't post for fear of being called a troll. It's ok to ramp things up but any caution or suggestion that it may not happen for some is seemingly frowned upon.

 

Anyway maybe I should take your advice and move out of Crewe, I'm still game for that Lincolnshire house swap 

CC, you're experienced enough to know that storms, just like snow, are the trickiest blighters to forecast, and modelling (even the hi-res modelling) is only a rough guide at best to nail down where and when......by all means have a moan that nothing happens, but wait until after the event rather then pre-empting something that is notoriously hard to forecast....for what it's worth, I've been studying all of the model output over the past 48-72 hours and nothing much has changed, so with that in mind, the forecast is at it always was....A CF will move in from the west engaging WAA already in place, and this WAA will readily destabilize giving elevated convection overnight for southern/central/midland England....as the CF slowly traverses NE during the daytime, further elevated and surface destabilization will occur giving the potential for strong thunderstorms as the 850hpa cap erodes during peak heating (surface based convection will be dependent on the degree of cloud around from earlier mid-level convection.

 

some places will miss out, they always do, but let's wait until tomorrow night before we start any recriminations to the weather 

[Methuselah]

 

some places will miss out, they always do, but let's wait until tomorrow night before we start any recriminations to the weather 

I'm sure The Triangle will miss out!

[Gordon Webb]

Most recent GFS shows major downgrades in CAPE and LI, especially across Wales and the Midlands. If these models turn out to be correct then I am not expecting any severe storms whatsoever, the maximum CAPE in the Midlands is 500j/kg, I mean??? That may not even trigger a storm... With an LI Of -2!

image.jpg

 

I certainly hope it doesn't

[TonyH]

I hope so to! Absolutely love thunderstorms, if I could find my proper camera I would record them like I used to :/ ~ then we had a few years of no storms.. and my charger is temporarily hiding at home.

Its a warm sultry afternoon, things popping off over SW Wales convection wise recently, so this evening could be our chance.

Edited June 6, 2014 by TonyH

[Liam J]

Remember CAPE & Li aren't the only parameters you have to look at when forecasting storm development and having decent amounts of CAPE doesn't automatically mean you will see any storms!

Edited June 6, 2014 by Liam J

[Robbie Garrett]

Two time-frames of interest - quite a huge amount of rainfall, maybe an MCS or two?  That front is going at 25knots+ looking at the aviation forecast so that's (28-29mph).

 

04:00am

 

 

07:00am

 

 

Edited June 6, 2014 by Robbie Garrett

[jmatt81]

Interesting forecast discussion from Simon Keeling. His "thunder zone" is not where I have seen other people believe it could be.

 

[ancientsolar]

Lets just be hopeful for Wales ... where some beefy shower recently broke out over the South West.. already.

[dave48]

The potential is certainly there for some notable storms through tonight and tomorrow. To add to the views of others, these plume setups rarely happen quite as expected. To go back to just a few weeks agp, north Wales saw some of the strongest storms in that region in many years, while the focus was on other areas.

 

I am looking forward to seeing how things begin to develop over France this evening.

 

Best of luck to all of those after a storm, I think a few of us could do very well out of this.

[andy989]

Lets just be hopeful for Wales ... where some beefy shower recently broke out over the South West.. already.

I think tonight will be good for us. Well, I say tonight, early hours. 

[Darren Bown]

I am taking the 'wait and see' and 'I'll believe it when I see it' route for tomorrow.

[andy989]

The potential is certainly there for some notable storms through tonight and tomorrow. To add to the views of others, these plume setups rarely happen quite as expected. To go back to just a few weeks agp, north Wales saw some of the strongest storms in that region in many years, while the focus was on other areas.

 

I am looking forward to seeing how things begin to develop over France this evening.

 

Best of luck to all of those after a storm, I think a few of us could do very well out of this.

Yes they were great storms and I was not expecting to get that intensity. Others are writing the west off based on GFS CAPE modelling alone. Everywhere has a chance tomorrow. 

[Mapantz]

Interesting forecast discussion from Simon Keeling. His "thunder zone" is not where I have seen other people believe it could be. 

All due respect to Mr Keeling, but it's foolhardy to be basing it off of precipitation charts. I'll disregard it in this complexed setup.

[The PIT]

Just finally got around to looking at the charts so miles behind. Definite downgrade from yesterday i.e cin has increased a lot and cape has dropped a lot although still plenty of it. South east expected to be in the clear for once so expect this place to have the storms. Always seems to happen like that.

I'm going to apply the normal rules. The H word == None event. Over excited forecasters == None event

[A.J]

All due respect to Mr Keeling, but it's foolhardy to be basing it off of precipitation charts. I'll disregard it in this complexed setup.

totally agree....precip charts (regardless of the time scale) are a very rough guide at best

[ancientsolar]

Shower of Wales now torrential

[dave48]

Always good to see, first spot of the day here.

 

Nice bit of mid level instability on show.

 

 

Edit: Apologies for the angle!

 

Edited June 6, 2014 by dave48