Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[Liam J]

Looking at the latest hi-res NMM 4km model it does look like some areas could escape with a dry day, mainly in the SE despite decent CAPE values - storms may develop but they will be rather hit and miss. The heaviest rainfall further north and west which I think will be thundery with embedded cells giving some torrential downours, we'll only really know how this is going to pan out once we start getting ground reports in later tonight into tomorrow and also watching the radar & lightning detectors...

 

Worth mentioning only use the models as a guide, they can struggle a bit to pin down detail in these type of setups. If you have access to high resolution models then great stick with them as they will give a much better idea.  

 

 

SB CAPE Saturday afternoon. 

 

[The PIT]

Arrrrrggghh Carol Kirkwood just used the 'H' word regarding thunderstorms.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhh I heard it as well. Zero chance now for everyone tomorrow. A few showery spells of drizzle for the odd person.

[AWD]

Judging by the latest model output and latest BBC forecast, it is looking like overnight tonight rather than tomorrow morning could be the focal point of any potential action IMBY now.

Tomorrow looks more north/north east based. Still, very difficult to call so we will see.

[Captain Shortwave]

Still looks like there could some embedded elevated storms track across western areas overnight so in that regard it still looks good.

Things slightly toned down though this morning, this mainly due to the 850s not being as warm as previously predict (were getting +14C, but it's more likely to be a little lower)

 

Interestingly there could be a few isolated thundery showers across central areas on Sunday on what could possibly be the warmest day of the weekend (so much for cooler and fresher )

[Ben Sainsbury]

ESTOFEX doesn't look too bad, Level 1 and 50% lightning area over Southern England!

 

http://www.estofex.org/

[William Grimsley]

ESTOFEX doesn't look too bad, Level 1 and 50% lightning area over Southern England!

 

http://www.estofex.org/

WOW! Never realised to look at that looks good!

[PolarWarsaw]

Yawn, few elevated storms overnight then.

[William Grimsley]

Can anyone give me an idea as to what to look for later on today?

[Gordon Webb]

I may be wrong but looking at the model updates this morning chances of storms for the SW quadrant of the UK have been reduced a fair bit. The cold front doesn't seem to engage with the available energy until its into the Midlands with the SE and E and NE looking good at this time.Will see what the updates show later...

 

thats not what i wanted to hear but the bbc forecast maps shows the rain more especially tomorrow morning with the north seeming to cop it more in afternoon

Edited June 6, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

That's quite promising especially for southern areas! Good luck

[Gordon Webb]

Still looks like there could some embedded elevated storms track across western areas overnight so in that regard it still looks good.

Things slightly toned down though this morning, this mainly due to the 850s not being as warm as previously predict (were getting +14C, but it's more likely to be a little lower)

 

Interestingly there could be a few isolated thundery showers across central areas on Sunday on what could possibly be the warmest day of the weekend (so much for cooler and fresher )

 

I like things been toned down maybe things won't be as severe as first thought but then any thunder is too much for me

 

still looking warm in se on sunday especially London

Edited June 6, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[TEITS]

I have highlighted the areas most at risk for tomorrow with the area in red standing the greatest chance of seeing severe storms.

 

 

 

Im not expecting much for the overnight period as I feel this will consist mostly of heavy rain with the odd clap of thunder (thundery rain). The heavy rain moving N tonight will affect mostly central areas before clearing N in the morning. During the late afternoon is when it could kick off in the areas I have highlighted.

 

Areas in most likely to miss out is Wales especially the W, SW England, far E of E Anglia/SE.

Edited June 6, 2014 by TEITS

[Weather-history]

I have highlighted the areas most at risk for tomorrow with the area in red standing the greatest chance of seeing severe storms.

 

storm map.jpg

 

 

Im not expecting much for the overnight period as I feel this will consist mostly of heavy rain with the odd clap of thunder (thundery rain). The heavy rain moving N tonight will affect mostly central areas before clearing N in the morning. During the late afternoon is when it could kick off in the areas I have highlighted.

 

Areas in most likely to miss out is Wales especially the W, SW England, far E of E Anglia/SE.

Hmm

And you just happen to be in the middle of that red area.....

Am I that cynical?

[William Grimsley]

Areas in most likely to miss out is Wales especially the W, SW England, far E of E Anglia/SE.

Maybe tomorrow but definitely not tonight.

[Gordon Webb]

I have highlighted the areas most at risk for tomorrow with the area in red standing the greatest chance of seeing severe storms.

 

storm map.jpg

 

 

Im not expecting much for the overnight period as I feel this will consist mostly of heavy rain with the odd clap of thunder (thundery rain). The heavy rain moving N tonight will affect mostly central areas before clearing N in the morning. During the late afternoon is when it could kick off in the areas I have highlighted.

 

Areas in most likely to miss out is Wales especially the W, SW England, far E of E Anglia/SE.

 

Well me been near Coventry I'm just outside your expected area and even further away from you severe area which is good for me

[William Grimsley]

HmmAnd you just happen to be in the middle of that red area.....Am I that cynical?

Exactly what I thought.

[sparky1972]

I have highlighted the areas most at risk for tomorrow with the area in red standing the greatest chance of seeing severe storms.

 

storm map.jpg

 

 

Im not expecting much for the overnight period as I feel this will consist mostly of heavy rain with the odd clap of thunder (thundery rain). The heavy rain moving N tonight will affect mostly central areas before clearing N in the morning. During the late afternoon is when it could kick off in the areas I have highlighted.

 

Areas in most likely to miss out is Wales especially the W, SW England, far E of E Anglia/SE.

good morning, im liking your prediction this morning, fingers crossed you are right, will have camera on stand-by tomorrow

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Exactly what I thought.

TEITS isn't far wrong though. The area with the highest SB cape levels lay within the area he has highlighted! In the past, it's these areas that have come off worst in these setups. Look at a fortnight ago for example.

[paul m]

I bet you're trying to suggest I zip it basically. LOL

Lol no. You miss out on them like we do up here.

[TEITS]

TEITS isn't far wrong though. The area with the highest SB cape levels lay within the area he has highlighted!In the past, it's these areas that have come off worst in these setups. Look at a fortnight ago for example.

Exactly right. For many days the models have indicated the areas I have highlighted are at greatest risk.

[William Grimsley]

Lol no. You miss out on them like we do up here.

Yeah, maybe tonight just maybe we both get something.

[robt]

TEITS isn't far wrong though. The area with the highest SB cape levels lay within the area he has highlighted!In the past, it's these areas that have come off worst in these setups. Look at a fortnight ago for example.

 

Puts me right on the northwest edge of the 'at risk' area. I'll be in the Lincoln area on Saturday, as I can drop down the A46/A15 if I need to.

[Heisenberg]

Thanks TEITS, thats useful.

 

Im JUST on the very southern edge of the most at risk so i really hope we get something spectacular. TBH just to catch one good fork on camera will do me but then im easily pleased.

 

TGIF

[Gordon Webb]

Thanks TEITS, thats useful.

 

Im JUST on the very southern edge of the most at risk so i really hope we get something spectacular. TBH just to catch one good fork on camera will do me but then im easily pleased.

 

TGIF

 

one good fork

 

for a minute there I thought it said something else

[P-M]

BBC weather shows thundery intense downpours mainly from midlands up in to northwest England moving north and then straddling west-east by 4pm across NW & NE England.

 

 

Hope it comes off!!