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Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

Jane Louise
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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted

I don't think i'll end up with any thing. It's all going west. :nonono:

 

I blame my light rain.  :whistling:

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

I hope it's not like June 28, 2012, got nothing here that day. Not good enough!

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ChezWeather Experienced

ChezWeather

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
Posted

The WRF is showing 3000-3500 j/kg of CAPE in Norfolk on Saturday afternoon with over 2000j/kg quite widely. Currently looking very good if not superb with high CAPE of over 1500j/kg, some places double that, decent wind shear, helicity and that triggering cold front all coming across at the same time. Things could still change but currently it is looking remarkably similar to the 28th June 2012 to me.

 

I will be chasing, with the possibility I will head out in the early hours to catch some night time lightning before getting into position around my local area with an ability to head east for mid morning onwards. I will make a more definite decision though in around 24 hours time.

 

Im going to sit tight until late Saturday morning and then probably make a move east like yourself.

 

Sleaford being my target area 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Not getting excited until Friday evening when the forecast will update. Any word of humdingers will the instant kiss of death.

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Just watched my local Points West forecast and it's certainly looking good for Saturday AM here.

A rare chance for storm potential at a weekend and in daylight hours, something that's been rarer than hens teeth in recent years.

Too early for me personally to start making forecasts and plans, I'll start doing that tomorrow. Enough interest for me though to bring me back from a mini-hibernation period and into the stormatics swing of things.

:) :)

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

I hope I get something. What do you think, Supacell?

These type of questions are rather annoying, for you area it's not looking great. But you never know what could happen.
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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Just watched my local Points West forecast and it's certainly looking good for Saturday AM here.A rare chance for storm potential at a weekend and in daylight hours, something that's been rarer than hens teeth in recent years.Too early for me personally to start making forecasts and plans, I'll start doing that tomorrow. Enough interest for me though to bring me back from a mini-hibernation period and into the stormatics swing of things. :) :)

Welcome back, AWD. I've missed you.

These type of questions are rather annoying, for you area it's not looking great. But you never know what could happen.

How are they annoying? Please explain.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

These type of questions are rather annoying, for you area it's not looking great. But you never know what could happen.

first of all Daniel, they're not really annoying as long as they're not posted by the same member every 30 mins, and secondly it's actually looking very good for Will's area for thunderstorms tomorrow overnight and into saturday morning

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Azazel Veteran

Azazel

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted

These type of questions are rather annoying, for you area it's not looking great. But you never know what could happen.

 

little harsh, some of us are learning/don't have extensive knowledge of storm parameters. This is a weather forum where those who take an interest in the weather come to discuss...well, the weather.

I would imagine with the hype surrounding tomorrow, the less scientifically-informed of us will naturally be excited and asking questions like this.

 

On that note, how does hampshire look for tomorrow late PM and Saturday early AM? :)

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

I hope I get something. What do you think, Supacell?

 

The best chance for you will be Friday night before the cold front moves through as this will push the real juicy thundery air away with it. It is not annoying to ask these questions, please feel free too, although there are far more skilled forecasters on here than myself. It is hard to predict exactly where storms will materialise either, although I can give my thoughts on what current models are indicating.

Edited by Supacell
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

little harsh, some of us are learning/don't have extensive knowledge of storm parameters. This is a weather forum where those who take an interest in the weather come to discuss...well, the weather.

I would imagine with the hype surrounding tomorrow, the less scientifically-informed of us will naturally be excited and asking questions like this.

 

On that note, how does hampshire look for tomorrow late PM and Saturday early AM? :)

quick answer............ :good:

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted

Im not even going to get enthusiastic till at least tomorrow evening. Hopefully by then the charts will be a little more accurate. Then we can decide more accurately where the storms will most likely be.

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

Brilliantly presented forecast on BBC Points West by Ian Fergusson, I really hope everybody in this area who saw it took in the uncertainty they still have while understanding his technical explanations when showing the chart with the Cold Front approaching into the warm humid air that will be present. If you want to see the forecast later be sure to check the Points West Facebook page as it's usually added in the next few hours.

 

The process begins tonight with a weak Warm Front moving North which may bring some light rain in the early hours (see rain on radar to the SW of Cornwall now) followed by an increasingly sunny, warm and then humid day. Ian even explained that the first showers may occur tomorrow evening as mid level cloud begins to move up.

 

Signs to look out for tomorrow from mid afternoon will be Altocumulus Castellanus heading up from the South.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Im going to sit tight until late Saturday morning and then probably make a move east like yourself.

 

Sleaford being my target area 

 

Sleaford did extremely well on 28th June 2012 and of course it is in Lincolnshire so always going to be a fair bet :D. I would aim for somewhere with a good north to south road network so you can intercept the storms easier - the A1 works well for me a lot of the time.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

How are they annoying? Please explain.

I admit i was a little robust, but these questions cannot be answered it does not matter how experienced you are. I hear this question often, and it is impossible to pinpoint that your specific area is going to get anything - just a rough guide of the area. You should have a general idea by all the charts and great analysis, I would wait till late Friday before having any high hopes.
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Brilliantly presented forecast on BBC Points West by Ian Fergusson, I really hope everybody in this area who saw it took in the uncertainty they still have while understanding his technical explanations when showing the chart with the Cold Front approaching into the warm humid air that will be present. If you want to see the forecast later be sure to check the Points West Facebook page as it's usually added in the next few hours.

 

 

 

The process begins tonight with a weak Warm Front moving North which may bring some light rain in the early hours (see rain on radar to the SW of Cornwall now) followed by an increasingly sunny, warm and then humid day. Ian even explained that the first showers may occur tomorrow evening as mid level cloud begins to move up.

 

 

 

Signs to look out for tomorrow from mid afternoon will be Altocumulus Castellanus heading up from the South.

Hi Andy, just watched Fergie's forecast, it's already on facebook so have a look everyone. We're lucky to have him as our regional tv forecaster

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

BBC London weather has, light rain showers on saturday and temps at only 25c! :cc_confused: :cc_confused: :cc_confused:

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted

Well im gonna sthck my neck out and say taking all the conditions/mod and forecasts into account,im gonna be the worst hit in west yorks lol.Thats good news for all of you stormy's lol enjoy.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I've just watched the points west forecast, it does look good, even for here. It's a shame I'm not quite in that region for the TV forecasts, they're much more comprehensive than south today's. :)

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saint Rising Star

saint

Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts
Posted

BBC London weather has, light rain showers on saturday and temps at only 25c! :cc_confused: :cc_confused: :cc_confused:

 

The wording the presenter used suggested more heavier showers, but the uncertainty they still have over the situation was clear to see.

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted

Well latest BBC weather video (updated around 5pm) suggest naff all for here and said the east not to write the day off.  The graphics even show the storms / downpours out west and fizzling away as they cross the Pennines....  radar watching and hopecasting  is the form horse for me now :rofl:

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Homerr Apprentice

Homerr

Posted
  • Location: Harefield, North West London
  • Weather Preferences: Big storm!
  • Location: Harefield, North West London
Posted

Which winds are best to look at to work out how these storms may move? Is it 300hPa or 500?

 

MO and BBC don't have a lot for here but hopeful!

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Which winds are best to look at to work out how these storms may move? Is it 300hPa or 500?

 

MO and BBC don't have a lot for here but hopeful!

I use both to be honest

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