Jump to content

Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards


Recommended Posts

Not sure why people are surprised? 6z is notoriously a poor run, it generally over does any specific pattern to it's most severe level and the 12z usually wants to take things slightly east. I'd imagine things may or may not return west/east but, this is about par for the course IMO.

 

The UKMO looks a bit further east as well, but yes not settled yet with more shifting around to come over upcoming runs. Central/E/NE areas will be the hotspots though I wager.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

We can sit here all day talking about shifts to the east and west, but what happened last time? It went against the grain of everything.

Link to post
Share on other sites

a bit of advice which will help your sanity, rather than comparing consecutive model runs (which use different data sets) try comparing like for like (12z vs 12z or 00z v12z)....Trying this approach actually shows a rather different pattern in the modelling of the WAA/Plume. Using this method shows the highest amounts of instability or area of influence of the plume is actually trending further west and not east as some have posted

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably going to be the same as June 28th 2012. The worst storms go JUST about too far east, and an odd minor storm passes by. Got my hopes up for a decent storm.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday 12z for 14:00 SAT

 

 

Today 12z for 14:00 SAT

 

 

Going East, Mmmmmm !

 

I was only being tounge in cheek, due to the infamous reputation for these plumes to drift E. Not saying it's going to happen.

 

My my the 12z NMM is tasty! The last time I saw precip this heavy being modelled was June 28th 2012

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

MUCAPE spreading up early Saturday, then surface CAPE by midday...

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

Edited by Bobby
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

What's with all the funnel clouds recently, seems like they are rife this year despite similar conditions in previous years.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I was only being tounge in cheek, due to the infamous reputation for these plumes to drift E. Not saying it's going to happen.

you're not wrong Bobby!...more eventual shunts east in the past than I've had hot dinners, but the good news is so far, modelling is not showing any general trend for an eastwards shunt, over the past 48 hours modelling has been trending more of the UK to be under the influence of the WAA.....If however, the overnight runs and subsequent morning runs show a change, then I'd start to feel the first pangs of concern

Link to post
Share on other sites

Small but pleasantly active cell not too far from here a few minutes ago, gave some nice CG's and gunshot thunder. I think it might have been my budgie having one last hurrah - he died on Monday and his name was Thor. :)

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello!

 

usual look at the sky on the school run and it looked crazy - dark as you like, towers going up in minutes, Crazy. Thirty minutes later, thankfully when i was home the heavens opened, but no thunder.

 

Not jealous or anything about your storm. :nonono: nope.

I see your storm and raise you what i get over the weekend :crazy:

 

Sorry to hear about your pet :(

Edited by Dami
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I was only being tounge in cheek, due to the infamous reputation for these plumes to drift E. Not saying it's going to happen.

 

My my the 12z NMM is tasty! The last time I saw precip this heavy being modelled was June 28th 2012

 

 

 

MUCAPE spreading up early Saturday, then surface CAPE by midday...

 

Posted Image

 

Tounge in cheek... indeed! most of the time it does go East bound, just right now things look very intresting for the weekend.

That's one hell of a juicy Cape chart above, i'll take back what i said earlier about "the continent gets the best cape values"

If that comes off.... Back to the 80s here we come.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I will be free to chase storms from Friday afternoon through to Sunday morning so I am hoping to see something.

 

Quite a few fairly active cells across the central part of southern England as has been pointed out and some great funnel cloud pictures. Whether the weekend happens or not it is exciting watching the potential. In my view it looks quite similar to 28th June 2012 with some decent shear and helicity values showing up on lightning wizard for up to 12noon Saturday which is as far as it goes. Should things pan out as is currently showing then we could be in for a day to remember once more.... and that is as much as I am going to ramp for now :D

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I will be free to chase storms from Friday afternoon through to Sunday morning so I am hoping to see something. Quite a few fairly active cells across the central part of southern England as has been pointed out and some great funnel cloud pictures. Whether the weekend happens or not it is exciting watching the potential. In my view it looks quite similar to 28th June 2012 with some decent shear and helicity values showing up on lightning wizard for up to 12noon Saturday which is as far as it goes. Should things pan out as is currently showing then we could be in for a day to remember once more.... and that is as much as I am going to ramp for now :D

Oh yes 2012. Nothing happened here as usual lol
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Just seen the latest Beeb Forecast and what they have for saturday is a band of heavy Or Thundery rain possibly torrential in places moving north with fresher weather moving behind after what they describe as a warm humid start to the day although at this distance they don't know where the heaviest rain will fall

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello! usual look at the sky on the school run and it looked crazy - dark as you like, towers going up in minutes, Crazy. Thirty minutes later, thankfully when i was home the heavens opened, but no thunder. Not jealous or anything about your storm. :nonono: nope.I see your storm and raise you what i get over the weekend :crazy: Sorry to hear about your pet :(

Thank you. :)And you probably will beat me over the weekend, I'll be out of the country :lol:
Link to post
Share on other sites

Tounge in cheek... indeed! most of the time it does go East bound, just right now things look very intresting for the weekend.That's one hell of a juicy Cape chart above, i'll take back what i said earlier about "the continent gets the best cape values"If that comes off.... Back to the 80s here we come.

that chart looks absolutely ripe for the midlands and south east england!!the gfs is lower than that by a bit!!I wouldn't say gfs has gone east its more the slightly lower cape values that make it loook that way!
Link to post
Share on other sites

@climate_eyes: hehe and have a safe trip!  :)

 

That day in 2012 started promising, woke up at 6:45 and it was already thundering, be it only a few bangs, Then around 10am the cloud began to build, it was hot and humid and you could feel the storm coming. And it did. Not overhead but MK got a soaking, and I had some amazing lightning I could happily watch without getting wet with thunder rolled in to. Sometimes having a storm that close is annoying and good at the same time I think. 

Edited by Dami
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...