Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[William Grimsley]

Defenitely looks like I could be more at risk of seeing some thunderstorms later on Friday and Saturday with more CAPE and lower Lifted Index.

[William Grimsley]

Can see a growing cumulus congestus cloud nearly in the stages of cumulonimbus to my WNW.

[andy989]

Got decent claps of thunder her in NW wales

[Chris K]

I will take this now - Bristol area has 70%/80% chance of storms from 12:00 through until 18:00 maybe just after.  

 

Thats incredible. Just hope this verfies.

 

ukstormrisk.png

 

It has been quite some time since I last saw charts as good as these smack bang over the W Country....shame there is still a couple of days for it to shift, although these sort of values are what we often see in FI territory rather than within 3 days. Interesting stuff.

Edited June 4, 2014 by Chris K

[shaky]

NMM looking interesting for early Saturday, coming into the range of the high-res models now. 1,500 J/kg MUCAPE cape and LI of up to -7 moving up in the plume, a very warm airmass indeed. A cape in place across to the E but expect that will break later no problem. The jetstream giving an extra bit of oomph to developments, decent shear too. Looks like all the ingredients for some lively thunderstorms. 

that looks quite amazing!!am really looking forward to this weeknd now!!but with how quickly everythings moving west I wouldn't be surprised if everything ends up over wales or northern Ireland!!lol

[Mapantz]

I've just realised, the met office have updated their warnings from yesterday, I can't see what has changed if I'm honest?

[vladthemert]

we are getting battered here with rainfall some numbers 50mm in total so far.   2 rainrates off 5 mm/min 1 8 am  other 1.30pm 336.00 mm/hr record rainfall of 31 mm in one hour   .  Ordering noah ark

 

Goto be some convection rainfall in this

[Bobby]

Got decent claps of thunder her in NW wales

 

Interesting little cell near the coast

 

[Hellboy]

Amazing westwards shift of high cape values. Annoying that I may just be too far EAST to see any storms. :fool:Central southern England and Wales has had a great year so far. I've had a few distant rumbles so far. Medway storm shield?

[TonyH]

Got decent claps of thunder her in NW wales

Great! And from an innocuous looking shower on the radar!

[Paul]

For anyone who may have missed it the other day, we have a brand new (free) app available for Android - it's a storm radar, with radar and lightning detection updated every 15 minutes on there. You can download it from Google Play here:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.netweather.stormradar

[TonyH]

Amazing westwards shift of high cape values. Annoying that I may just be too far EAST to see any storms. :fool:Central southern England and Wales has had a great year so far. I've had a few distant rumbles so far. Medway storm shield?

It would be good to keep up the 2014 record of each month having thunder so far

Edited June 4, 2014 by TonyH

[Speedway Slider]

that looks quite amazing!!am really looking forward to this weeknd now!!but with how quickly everythings moving west I wouldn't be surprised if everything ends up over wales or northern Ireland!!lol

The there e 850 chart looks like a person walking towards the UK!!!

Not really relevant, but it spooked me looking at it!!!!

[andy989]

Great! And from an innocuous looking shower on the radar!

Yup! Wasnt expecting anything but some heavy showers today. We've had some hefty downpours earlier then a few claps. Seems to have moved on now. An interesting low flying, large aircraft flew into the cell too as I was looking for lightning. with an unfamiliar flight path to the normal commercial planes that fly over here. Never seen anything like it, almost looked like an AWAC aircraft. 

[Karl83]

For anyone who may have missed it the other day, we have a brand new (free) app available for Android - it's a storm radar, with radar and lightning detection updated every 15 minutes on there. You can download it from Google Play here:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.netweather.stormradar

Amazing! Thanks!

[Harry]

Harry, I disagree mate.

GFS precip models are notoriously unreliable and personally I pay them little interest. 

IMO the 06z run at face value oozes potential for strong thunderstorms to develop ahead of INVOF an advancing cold front providing forcing, with dewpoint speads in the upper sixties over central southern england, very high surface CAPE values as well as very high mixed layer CAPE, the air is bouyant as the lifted indices show, with steepening lapse rates in the mid levels and an initially capped atmosphere that will erode during the early afternoon, and with a theta-e rich plume of most air to tap into....strong surface based storms and active elevated storms are quite likely

 

I couldn't agree more the indications look great - falling pressure, very high CAPE, great LI figures, high dewpoints, eroding cap, approaching front, etc etc. But I've seen this time and again where despite most indicators screaming potential, a wet fart ensues.

 

The aim of my post was primarily to keep expectations down, not least to wait and see whether the models change significantly in the coming days and then start refining the detail. For me, thunderstorms yes for some (almost seems inevitable as you rightly say) but I remain conservative as to extent and coverage for now.

 

Not that I rate the MetO (at all!!!) in their abilities to predict thunderstorms, but this is their current take on Saturday for London and the South East, in spite of the yellow warning; Saturday, cloudy with showers or longer periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, improving late afternoon. Sunday, sunny spells with most parts dry. Admittedly, other parts of the country refer to very heavy, thundery downpours.

 

 

 

 

 

  Edited June 4, 2014 by Harry

[Lauren]

Amazing westwards shift of high cape values. Annoying that I may just be too far EAST to see any storms. :fool:Central southern England and Wales has had a great year so far. I've had a few distant rumbles so far. Medway storm shield?

There does seem to be a gap around Medway doesn't there.

[TwisterGirl81]

_{What is there potential for on Saturday on Saturday?  Is there a risk of strong tornadoes?}

 

_{I don't quite understand all the dew points/cape things and how they increase likely hood of storms and their intensity...}

 

_{I really hope we get a good thunderstorm in Exeter}

[Hellboy]

There does seem to be a gap around Medway doesn't there.

 Quite. Although I am forgetting the couple of flashes of thunder at the end of March accompanied with this . . . 

[William Grimsley]

I've just realised, the met office have updated their warnings from yesterday, I can't see what has changed if I'm honest?

They've included the Scilly Isles, as if that is going to make much difference.

[Dancerwithwings]

 Quite. Although I am forgetting the couple of flashes of thunder at the end of March accompanied with this . . . 

 

 

Wish it were...-21c

Alittle wishfull thinking on my part, that Picture looks like it almost is

[dwalton]

First proper potential for a decent storm in Sussex this year and I'm in Benidorm for a stag do. Doh!

[Harry]

First proper potential for a decent storm in Sussex this year and I'm in Benidorm for a stag do. Doh!

 

Lol...I'm in Benidorm for a stag do at the end of June - probably miss an awesome plume here then.

[A.J]

 

I couldn't agree more the indications look great - falling pressure, very high CAPE, great LI figures, high dewpoints, eroding cap, approaching front, etc etc. But I've seen this time and again where despite most indicators screaming potential, a wet fart ensues.

 

The aim of my post was primarily to keep expectations down, not least to wait and see whether the models change significantly in the coming days and then start refining the detail. For me, thunderstorms yes for some (almost seems inevitable as you rightly say) but I remain conservative as to extent and coverage for now.

 

Not that I rate the MetO (at all!!!) in their abilities to predict thunderstorms, but this is their current take on Saturday for London and the South East, in spite of the yellow warning; Saturday, cloudy with showers or longer periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, improving late afternoon. Sunday, sunny spells with most parts dry. Admittedly, other parts of the country refer to very heavy, thundery downpours.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sod it H.....let's have a ramp! 

[Harry]

There does seem to be a gap around Medway doesn't there.

 

I wouldn't panic, atmospheric instability does not discriminate an area like Medway.

 

Besides, in the three years I lived in Medway (left about 6 weeks ago) I saw more storms there than I did in NW Kent in the five years preceding.