Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[Knoxgar]

3000 Cape, dew points of 24°C, lifted index -8, temperatures of 35°C and breaking cin...man, im waiting for tuesday!

Edited June 5, 2014 by Knoxgar

[Harry]

Well hi again, I'm 17. No bias, I'd rather not tell the whole world. I'm not the sort of person, that you would expect to be a weather enthusiast but it has gripped me. I can never escape No one knows of my fascination of the weather - and that's how i like it, secret Squirrel me. I hope that i ain't upsetted anyone, my apologies. I never take note of the graphics, only of the snow variety gets me starry-eyed. Goodluck everyone

Time to come out of the closet my friend and shout loud and proud about your nerdy weather infatuations lol

[Mapantz]

Ive mentioned it a couple of times, but the 850 poteq (theta e) is always a good chart to look at in these situations, combined with the fax output..

Extending from the home counties up to the northwest for heavy rain (at the very least) Saturday evening.

[Cheshire Freeze]

no you're just a miserable git stuck in the middle of Crewe...lol

 

 

I am a miserable git at the minute. Averaging 3-4 hours sleep a night and on a run of 5.30am starts...all I want is a good plumey storm goddamit! Knowing my luck we'll get a storm- at 4am Sat morning when I'm dead to the world and have finished my earlies! Damn those eastward nudges, damn them all I tell ya!

Edited June 5, 2014 by CreweCold

[Andy Pepler]

Mapantz  ..whats your thoughts for this current setup for the wiltshire local..i have family and friends out working this wekend on some outside events ..

[Cheshire Freeze]

I blame UKIP, they want to take us out of Europe & Europe is taking our storms in retaliation. It's Farage's fault! I knew it all along. Thunderstorms are clearly pro-Europe.

 

Someone on an oil rig in the N Sea will be getting the benefit if this E shift carries on, knew I was in the wrong profession

 

I think it'd be easier if they just got rid of the GFS storm risk/CAPE parameters until 24 hours out. That way we'd all stop getting our hopes up so much!

 

On a side note, does anyone from Lincolnshire want a house swap? I'll even throw in my job too as part of the deal.

Edited June 5, 2014 by CreweCold

[Knoxgar]

So what's the best model in terms of convection in the UK? In Germany we're using GFS for middle range forecast, but using the WRF 72h model for pinpoint forecasts...UKMO and ECMWF are quite good in long range, but they having trouble when it comes to pinpoint exact areas in the short range period!

Edited June 5, 2014 by Knoxgar

[Mapantz]

Mapantz ..whats your thoughts for this current setup for the wiltshire local..i have family and friends out working this wekend on some outside events ..

As it stands now, I'd put your area in a good spot (depending on how you look at it of course) for Saturday morning, certainly a chance of some elevated lightning as showers move up from the channel and creep slightly inland; timing is still iffy, something more severe is a slight risk, without a doubt.. I'm not the best person to ask to give an outright forecast, I usually concentrate on a proximity of my area, given the complexity of it all, it would be silly of me to give an absolute forecast. The best bet is to keep checking here and use the netweather radar as soon as possible.BrickFielder mentioned it in a post at some point, this event has the potential to bust, the heavy rain that is progged will definitely be an issue though. I just can't help but think, with all the ingredients, something big could erupt!Where's weather09? Edited June 5, 2014 by Mapantz

[Speedway Slider]

I will be on duty at Leicester Speedway on Sat afternoon, getting track ready for our meeting Saturday night at 7.30pm, as you all know by now, I hate thunderstorms at the best of times !! What's our storm chances? I'm hoping by say 2pm they will have passed us by, at least the big uns. Our track is sort of west Leicester, nr Beaumont Lets, post code: LE4 1DZ , I put that to aid non Speedway fans and people that don't know Leicester well..

Cheers for any input

[Andy Pepler]

As it stands now, I'd put your area in a good spot (depending on how you look at it of course) for Saturday morning, certainly a chance of some elevated lightning as showers move up from the channel and creep slightly inland; timing is still iffy, something more severe is a slight risk, without a doubt.. I'm not the best person to ask to give an outright forecast, I usually concentrate on a proximity of my area, given the complexity of it all, it would be silly of me to give an absolute forecast. The best bet is to keep checking here and use the netweather radar as soon as possible.

cheers for you imput dude

[Wilxy]

I will be on duty at Leicester Speedway on Sat afternoon, getting track ready for our meeting Saturday night at 7.30pm, as you all know by now, I hate thunderstorms at the best of times !! What's our storm chances? I'm hoping by say 2pm they will have passed us by, at least the big uns. Our track is sort of west Leicester, nr Beaumont Lets, post code: LE4 1DZ , I put that to aid non Speedway fans and people that don't know Leicester well..

Cheers for any input

Unfortunately the chance of storms increase for midlands as the day goes on so im guessing mid afternoon - evening best chance of storms for your region. 

[Chris101]

In a way people should be looking at things as 2 separate events overlapping somewhere in the middle, my thoughts are pretty much the same as my earlier post.

Firstly during Friday night the plume will start to destabilise and elevated storms will move into the SW, S Wales moving NE into CS England and SW Midlands in the early hours of saturday, people in these areas shouldn't worry about cape values as these are elevated storms. During the day on Saturday this first round of storms will start to die out as they move into N England, NW but some very heavy rain will still affect these areas.

 

The second event should get going in the afternoon when surface heating and some high cape values will develop surface based thunderstorms over E England, some of these will be severe moving into Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire and parts of East Anglia (mainly West EA) maybe as far as S Yorks.

[Mapantz]

I can get a bit crabby if i miss out, I'm the first to admit that! Only because I'm storm starved lol

I'm not sure about anybody else, I'm still intrigued as to what occurs, even if I do miss out- there is so much potential, does the ATD lightning detector go in to meltdown? It is quite exciting!

Edited June 5, 2014 by Mapantz

[Speedway Slider]

Unfortunately the chance of storms increase for midlands as the day goes on so im guessing mid afternoon - evening best chance of storms for your region. 

Oh poooo! 

Thanks for your help, can't wait!! 

 

Is it safe sitting in one of these: should have been an emoticon of a big red tractor here!! 

Edited June 5, 2014 by Speedway Slider

[Andy Pepler]

according to lightning maps ther are storms in the bay of biscay at this time at night

[Chris101]

I can get a bit crabby if i miss out, I'm the first to admit that! Only because I'm storm starved lolI'm not sure about anybody else, I'm still intrigued as to what occurs, even if if I do miss out- there is so much potential, does the ATD lightning detector go in to meltdown? It is quite exciting!

 

Thats no surprise to be honest, days of model watching and then hours and hours of refreshing the radar can leave us all pretty exhausted and when it all fails to bring a storm to your area it can be very disheartening.

 

Myself, i think i'm probably just too far East, so when things kick off i shall be looking at heading towards Cambridge if it still looks like i'm going to draw a blank here.

[Mapantz]

Thats no surprise to be honest, days of model watching and then hours and hours of refreshing the radar can leave us all pretty exhausted and when it all fails to bring a storm to your area it can be very disheartening. Myself, i think i'm probably just too far East, so when things kick off i shall be looking at heading towards Cambridge if it still looks like i'm going to draw a blank here.

Last Summer, when it was all about to kick off (I had no internet for weeks) I only knew things might go pop due to the BBC.. Monday was supposed to be the day, but Sunday sort of came out on top, a storm slid east of me, fantastic outflow gusts of wind blew pub umbrellas everywhere! Decent elevated lightning in the distance too, no thunder from it, but a nice surprise as it wasn't forecasted, I had no way of looking at a radar either- when I do have that commodity, I miss it all. lol

[dwalton]

It looks as though most of England will get a chance at some point of the day or evening. There is a chance of homegrown more in the midlands through to the East in the late afternoon to evening. I still do reckon it will be pretty hit and miss. Loved to be proved wrong though! :-)

[MrSunshine]

Hi please follow my Weather blog on Facebook if you live in the North West or North Wales. https://www.facebook.com/WinterInTheUk2013

[Supacell]

The morning runs do appear to downgrade the potential for severe thunderstorms tomorrow just a tad with it appearing that the CF moves through just a little faster. Still some hefty MLCAPE values tonight and tomorrow, with SB CAPE in the east tomorrow too. However, Euro 4 appears to keep most of the SE quadrant of the UK dry with the heaviest rain further north.

 

My view still stands on overnight being good for CS England around and to the west of the IOW for some quite potent elevated thunderstorms but tomorrow storms maybe not affecting the area I at first thought. I think early storms will rumble northwards across the western half of the country, but be dying out as they do so through the morning. Then storms breaking out across S England and the Midlands pushing north and east into Lincolnshire, Yorkshire, NE England and possibly SE Scotland around the cold front. These storms are the ones that could turn severe with areas such as NE Midlands, Lincolnshire and Yorkshire in the firing line. 

 

Again, this is subject to change and it may well come down to radar watching on the day.

Edited June 6, 2014 by Supacell

[William Grimsley]

Really hope you get some good storms...

I bet you're trying to suggest I zip it basically. LOL

[Chris K]

I may be wrong but looking at the model updates this morning chances of storms for the SW quadrant of the UK have been reduced a fair bit. The cold front doesn't seem to engage with the available energy until its into the Midlands with the SE and E and NE looking good at this time.

Will see what the updates show later...

[William Grimsley]

I may be wrong but looking at the model updates this morning chances of storms for the SW quadrant of the UK have been reduced a fair bit. The cold front doesn't seem to engage with the available energy until its into the Midlands with the SE and E and NE looking good at this time.Will see what the updates show later...

Evidence? Can't see any downgrade infact maybe a possible slight upgrade in chances.

[William Grimsley]

Still looking good for here and most parts of SW England tonight. Fingers crossed and hope most of us get at least a good rumble of thunder.

 

[robt]

Arrrrrggghh Carol Kirkwood just used the 'H' word regarding thunderstorms.