Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[Yarmy]

A dismal weekend now seems inevitable. The big 3:

 

ECM

 

GFS

 

UKMO

 

 

I could have forecasted this 6 months ago, though, as it is my birthday.

 

The GEM is even worse, with an atlantic train incoming.

[cheeky_monkey]

A dismal weekend now seems inevitable. The big 3:

 

ECM

 

GFS

 

UKMO

 

 

I could have forecasted this 6 months ago, though, as it is my birthday.

 

The GEM is even worse, with an atlantic train incoming.

Interesting that most other locations at the same latitude as us in the NH seem to be in the same boat..no where is it Hot or very settled.

[Evening thunder]

Rather than simply wet and cool, I'd say showery may often be the order of the day as SteveB mentions , with a relatively slack low and surface heating building CAPE on several days, at least on the GFS:

Could be a fair few heavy showers and thunderstorms around if that verifies, but also sunshine in between and temperatures high teens perhaps touching low 20's. Probably not the best for some but I'd quite like that outlook, much better and more interesting than just grey cool and damp at least, although there may be some frontal activity, the amount and extent of which remains to be seen.

Edited June 24, 2014 by Evening thunder

[knocker]

I've succumbed. The ECM and METO can't agree on movement of low over the weekend. Given the positioning of the low and fronts and other variables the intensity, type and location of precipitation at this time is way above my pay grade.

Edited June 24, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

It looks like a slow process to clear the low east once it gets in temperatures are likely to be much lower than of late possibly low to mid teens for some at times, I think the roof at Wimbledon could be getting used quite a lot from Friday

 

[Roadrunner]

More in hope than expectation, is there a chance this low for the weekend is being modelled too far north and will miss us and head into France? I know this was being muted a while back. Has anyone experienced this kind of set up before?

[knocker]

Interesting that most other locations at the same latitude as us in the NH seem to be in the same boat..no where is it Hot or very settled.

 

I dunno. Your old neck of the woods isn't doing so bad but in N. Canada it's been very hot. Forecast to cool down a bit.

[legritter]

Good morning all ,charts and data so far today paints a wet picture for some later this week .well its been on the cards for a while and still some uncertainty on exact locations ,well we have had a good June so probably Mother nature telling us theres two sides to the coin ,Tonights Fax from met office should give some clues to positioning of any fronts but still too early i feel for anything definate  ,just as an interest ,sat outside this morning 7AM ,bLUE SKY AND 38  CONTRAILS ,for those of you new to upper air charts take a look at Contrail Science ,as size shape duration of contrail will tell you state of upper atmosphere ,[moisture content etc] .A new science created by the human race ,STellas all round  Cheers .

[Weather Boy]

More in hope than expectation, is there a chance this low for the weekend is being modelled too far north and will miss us and head into France? I know this was being muted a while back. Has anyone experienced this kind of set up before?

 

It's possible isn' it?  It's already been transferred as an encroachment of LP from the NW to an encroachment via the SW and there was strong empahsis on uncertainty in the models and in the weekend Countryfile forecast.

 

At the moment it seems that the further you are from the south coast, the better.  I suppose it wouldn't take much of a shift south for at least everything north of the M4 to be OK. Still a couple of days or more available for further shifts.  However, at the moment Saturday at least is looking pretty miserable at least in the south.

Edited June 24, 2014 by Weather Boy

[knocker]

And regarding North American weather recently. It has been rather odd with heat in the west and east and far north. And some extremes seem set to continue.

[cheeky_monkey]

And regarding North American weather recently. It has been rather odd with heat in the west and east and far north. And some extremes seem set to continue.

North America is a continent of extremes rarely is it average anywhere

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please keep the discussion Model based.

Many Thanks.

PM.

[knocker]

Well the 06z GFS is certainly not agreeing with the ECM but more in line with the METO for the weekend.

 

Friday shallow low south Irish Sea and wet. Saturday 1005mb south west of Oslo and Sunday much the same position and filling 1010mb. Light n. airstream for last two days and too early for any rainfall predictions.

 

Having said that this scenario would be better than the ECM interpretation

Edited June 24, 2014 by knocker

[Roadrunner]

Apologies for the standard of picture but leading on from how badly the models are handling this weekend, see attached picture. Fairly self explanatory and yes, I know, very hard if not impossibleto nail within hours let alone this far out, but does give an indication of how volatile the situation is in my opinion and how very quickly things change run to run.

[johnholmes]

Apologies for the standard of picture but leading on from how badly the models are handling this weekend, see attached picture. Fairly self explanatory and yes, I know, very hard if not impossibleto nail within hours let alone this far out, but does give an indication of how volatile the situation is in my opinion and how very quickly things change run to run.

 

nice illustrtaion there of how variable model output can be in relatvely close time frames.

[SteveB]

It does look to be turning more unsettled from Thursday night onwards, but how unsettled is still up for debate.

 

GFS 6z has the weekend looking not to bad rain wise, and it's only really Thursday night/ Friday that looks wet.

 

[Weather Boy]

nice illustrtaion there of how variable model output can be in relatvely close time frames.

 

As also demonstrated by the fact that people are discussing the prospects for this weekend, only a few days away, and hardly anyone is bothering to touch on beyond that, as the models more or less don't have a clue.

[knocker]

As also demonstrated by the fact that people are discussing the prospects for this weekend, only a few days away, and hardly anyone is bothering to touch on beyond that, as the models more or less don't have a clue.

 

That's funny I could have swore my last post yesterday and first today did, but there you go, another senior moment. And others have touched on it as well.

[johnholmes]

not sure of the Glastonbury thread, can someone please drop this link in for me=the senior man at Exeter with his view of the weather

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/glastonbury

[Summer Sun]

Its not just the UK which is likely to see below average temperatures over the next week it looks like most of Europe will be cooler than average

 

 

Quite a bit of rain for some parts as well over the next week UK included

 

[Captain Shortwave]

When in a situation where low pressure looks set to stall over the UK for long periods of time, how you would love to see a rapid drop in pressure over Greenland and a large jet-streak to clear the low out of the UK.

 

 

Looks like we might get one of these, the low sticks around during the weekend before clearing off at the start of next week, most likely a north/south split developing.

Edit - GEM going the same way

A pressure pattern over Greenland like that will push the Azores high towards us,it might not bring widespread settled weather as the most likely result would be a decent position over southern Europe, but it wouldn't be a washout either.

Edited June 24, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Costa Del Fal]

Rather disappointing charts this afternoon again esp GFS 12z. Rather annoying that High pressure just cannot seem to get East of the UK again, something that was similar to the 2007-12 summers and hence with HP to our W/SW Low heights slip SEwards bringing the coolest conditions right over Britain making it quite easily the coolest for our latitude. Things can change quickly but it could be approaching mid July before anything hopeful in terms of dry, proper summery weather comes to fruition.

Edited June 24, 2014 by Costa Del Fal

[Captain Shortwave]

Much better from the ECM this evening, clearing the low early next week and building high pressure in

 

Will have to wait and see whether this trend holds or whether there will be more twists and turns along the way.

[knocker]

Regarding the jet on Sunday in the gospel according to the GFS.

 

The 250mb contour chart has low between Greenland and Canada giving a broad sweep of NW airstream across the Atlantic with a ridge between Iceland and Greenland poking into the Atlantic pushing it a tad further south. The high pressure is central Atlantic with the centre due west of Gibraltar.

 

The tight gradient between these systems has the quite strong jet running NWN across the Atlantic, curving NW SW of the UK before turning NE around the upper low over the UK.

 

It can be seen that later in the week this changed a fair bit with the HP pushing further north. Low pressure sneaking into the UK from the NW?

[SteveB]

GFS showers a period of unsettled weather coming up, but thankfully one of a showery nature, so some places may stay dry while others get a soaking.

 

Tomorrows showers seem to be further West than was originally forecast.