Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[phil nw.]

A post has been removed-no model discussion was included within it's content.

Please post general weather comments in the relevant thread.

 

Thanks.

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like round 2 could kick off Monday night, before then

Temperatures could potentially reach the high twenties in Central/Southern areas.

Good agreement between the models too on Monday being very warm.

[Summer Sun]

ECM and GFS look in good agreement for a very warm day on Monday things could go bang later in the day and into Tuesday with round 2 coming

 

 

ECM is stuck on meteociel but its updating on wetterzentral

 

Tuesday looks like it could be a thundery day

 

 

By Wednesday pressure begins to rise from the south could be quite wet for northern Scotland

 

Edited June 5, 2014 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

A stunning ECM tonight with lovely weather bar day 5 with some fireworks, as time progresses the emphasis of sunny weather moves towards the West & South- With Ireland even getting in on the act.

[ANYWEATHER]

The ecm is still sticking with two plumes both on Saturday and Monday, after that the model just as the rest of them are showing different evolutions. The Ecm has major changes in its output on recent days , gone is the heatwave scenario, Just shows we all have to be careful on model output windups!!  Allbeit Summer or Winter!    

Edited June 5, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[IDO]

ECM 12z as expected lowers the UK temps compared to the 0z operational. Change compared to this morning's run:

 

 

I think Steve must have been looking at this morning's run as the 12z more in line with it's 0z mean with the heights being temporary and the pattern flatter, in line with GFS 12z:

 

D10 ECM:  D10 GFS:  

 

D6-9 looking settled the further south you are though. GEM at D10 follows the pressure build:

 

 33% support in the GEFS.

 

Still low confidence for D7 plus, though GFS and ECM a lot closer, so getting there.

Edited June 5, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[phil nw.]

Yes Steve some Summery looking outputs this evening from all the main runs.

Some heat and humidity over the weekend with some convective interest quite widely,this continuing into early next week.The main risk then more for the far se as pulses of continental heat move north meet the Atlantic air pushing in from the west.

By midweek high pressure building from the continent settling things down for many us with some pleasant warmth and sunshine.

A nice looking GEFs mean for the end of next week.

 

a decent looking week to come by the looks-although suggestions of a brief interruption later from a Scandinavian trough looks possible further on.

Edited June 5, 2014 by phil nw.

[IDO]

The SE looks in line to get the very warm temps Saturday with a steep temp gradient as you travel west:  

 

The Midlands on Saturday afternoon still look at the greatest risk for storms: 

 

This risk moves east as the afternoon progresses: 

 

Cooler as the cold front moves east: 

 

Most of the rain in the Midlands/NW: 

[phil nw.]

How is the Isle of Wight going to do for storms on Saturday?

Nick your post has been moved to the Storm thread here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80540-convective-storm-discussion-5th-june-2014-onwards/

 

as this was not model discussion.

[Gael_Force]

There's an awful lot of convective debris moving up from France early Saturday morning - GFS IR cloud height simulation of hours  +42 and +48.

 

  Is there not the risk that this will suppress convective activity or are the thunder storms crossing intact and continuing over the UK?

[bluearmy]

Its interesting to see the way that the trend has shifted in the fi period from rising temps to falling temps as the possibilty of heights lowering to our ne whilst they rise markedly over greeny again. Sceuro heights replaced by weak troughing. I suppose that means it could swing back again somewhat.

[gottolovethisweather]

The ecm is still sticking with two plumes both on Saturday and Monday, after that the model just as the rest of them are showing different evolutions. The Ecm has major changes in its output on recent days , gone is the heatwave scenario, Just shows we all have to be careful on model output windups!!  Allbeit Summer or Winter!    

 

ECM is redeeming itself of late in the eyes of a lot of model watchers, that's for sure. The plume was correctly forecast a couple of days back except slight variations over day to day details. Yes, a few people are guilty of overegging the Temps or even undercooking them, likewise with rainfall amounts so more often than not, its the model interpreters (us folk brave enough to not lurk but also to comment) who are on the wind up, not the model outputs.

 

Enough of that, for me though some most interesting synoptics are developing in my opinion and plenty to talk about in the coming days and maybe weeks. :clapping:Some cool days and some hot ones both on offer in my view, mid-teens one day, mid-twenties a day or two later and so it repeats again and again. If the HP comes to fruition and that's a big IF at the moment, some consistency in daytime Maximums might be possible, before that those ladies out there and chaps I guess won't not what to wear from one day to the next. Skirt or trousers? Sweater or T-shirt?

Edited June 5, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[SMU]

ECM 12z as expected lowers the UK temps compared to the 0z operational. Change compared to this morning's run:

 

GetSlideMaps.png

 

I think Steve must have been looking at this morning's run as the 12z more in line with it's 0z mean with the heights being temporary and the pattern flatter, in line with GFS 12z:

 

D10 ECM: ECM1-240.gif  D10 GFS:  gfs-0-240.png

 

D6-9 looking settled the further south you are though. GEM at D10 follows the pressure build:

 

gem-0-240.png  33% support in the GEFS.

 

Still low confidence for D7 plus, though GFS and ECM a lot closer, so getting there.

No mate I was looking at the 12z on WZ-

 

Stunning run with solid mid 20's all the way through.

[davehsug]

ECM is redeeming itself of late in the eyes of a lot of model watchers, that's for sure. The plume was correctly forecast a couple of days back except slight variations over day to day details. Yes, a few people are guilty of overegging the Temps or even undercooking them, likewise with rainfall amounts so more often than not, its the model interpreters (us folk brave enough to not lurk but also to comment) who are on the wind up, not the model outputs.

 

Enough of that, for me though some most interesting synoptics are developing in my opinion and plenty to talk about in the coming days and maybe weeks. :clapping:Some cool days and some hot ones both on offer in my view, mid-teens one day, mid-twenties a day or two later and so it repeats again and again. If the HP comes to fruition and that's a big IF at the moment, some consistency in daytime Maximums might be possible, before that those ladies out there and chaps I guess won't not what to wear from one day to the next. Skirt or trousers? Sweater or T-shirt?

Really? I feel it's been appalling for months. The one thing we could always say about the ECM, was it's consistency & not being prone to GFSesque flights of fancy on a regular basis. All I seem to have seen for the past few months is that it's been far less reliable after about 4 days than it ever used to be. Whatever updates went in there have certainly not been an improvement in my eyes.

[Captain Shortwave]

The warmest day of the year so far was the 19th May, where 26.3C was hit at Heathrow airport.

Saturday and Monday both have a chance of topping that, if we see enough sunshine.

Here is Saturday

 

I will be watching Mondays developments with interest as that has the potential to be as interesting as Saturday.

 

Further out, I think that Scandi trough will be much shallower than currently being modeled, then again it's development is again reliant on an Atlantic low being cut off and allowing the Euro ridge to be pulled north-westwards towards Greenland, if that cut off low does not develop, we could very well see another pattern change in the week 2 range.

Edited June 5, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[damianslaw]

Quite an interesting synoptical output, with the trough squeezed by two forces i.e. heights over Greenland and developing heights to the south and southeast with a strong foothold into NE Europe, the key player appears to be heights to our NW which is forcing the trough to stretch and elongate southwards to our SW pulling up a continental airflow.

 

As we move into next week, much will depend on the position and strength of heights to our south, if these manage to build sufficiently and get a foothold over the Channel, the trough will be forced on a more usual NE trajectory before coming unstuck over Scandinavia thanks to strong heights to the north, we could see a feedback loop mechanism whereby the trough is forced back SW over the N Sea.

 

Its a very messy set up, whilst we have a warm/very warm outlook for some, its hardly a settled outlook. The azores high remains an elusive partner, and is the key player when it comes to the likelihood of sustained settled conditions. We can warm/very warm/hot weather without the azores high but it tends to be associated with plume events or less normally with easterly airstream and these tend to come under great attack from the atlantic when the azores high isn't playing ball.

[draztik]

Looking longer term, ecm trends cooler with a negative anomaly showing for the Uk into days 10-15 from the ecm ens. Seems to be a bit of a split view re tonight's ecm op. It looks distinctly average to my eyes.

[johnholmes]

help please?

Can someone give me the link to the GFS, ECMWF, Met etc accuracy data charts, got lost in the change over to a new pc?

 

many thanks

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS deciding on something different even in the earlier timeframes

That WAA stretching between Scandinavia and Greenland could prove a bit of a gamechanger as the low near the UK can't eject over the  top of the Sceuro ridge. This results in the jet aligning more favorably and hence builds pressure more strongly through the UK

GFS is settled out to and beyond day 10, never hot but touching the mid-twenties at times.

 

Monday looks very warm in the South east

 

Very hot just across the channel, further shifts westward would be nice.....

Edited June 5, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[J10]

help please?

Can someone give me the link to the GFS, ECMWF, Met etc accuracy data charts, got lost in the change over to a new pc?

 

many thanks

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/ - This is the main page.

[J10]

GFS deciding on something different even in the earlier timeframes

That WAA stretching between Scandinavia and Greenland could prove a bit of a gamechanger as the low near the UK can't eject over the  top of the Sceuro ridge. This results in the jet aligning more favorably and hence builds pressure more strongly through the UK

GFS is settled out to and beyond day 10, never hot but touching the mid-twenties at times.

 

Monday looks very warm in the South east

 

Very hot just across the channel, further shifts westward would be nice.....

 

 

In terms of slightly higher pressure the NOAA upper charts are slightly edging a bit better with the upper trough now being modelled in the Atlantic and a bit of ridging now over the UK. No dominance by any means but a little better.

 

Todays runs

 

With the trend of this week on the Glastonbury forecast thread. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/

[Knoxgar]

Model output for monday in germany (highs)! 37°C for me, previous record is 35°C, so there is a good chance to beat it!

 

[summer blizzard]

Interesting outputs tonight. At day 8 the Euro and GFS both have pressure higher to the west but still relatively high over the UK but the GEM and Euro really begin to dig in troughing over Scandinavia which would likely lead to an eventual cooler shot.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Really? I feel it's been appalling for months. The one thing we could always say about the ECM, was it's consistency & not being prone to GFSesque flights of fancy on a regular basis. All I seem to have seen for the past few months is that it's been far less reliable after about 4 days than it ever used to be. Whatever updates went in there have certainly not been an improvement in my eyes.

 

Yes, of late, ECM modelling has consistently nailed this current plume and the others forecast to follow it, it has also continually suggested that the Europeans are largely going to bake and parts of the UK will continue to be on the edge of those hottest events. The GFS got things right a lot of the time over the dreadful Winter period (obviously more so in the high resolution part of the runs), presumably because it loves default Atlantic domination synoptics and that was precisely what occurred. The fact that it runs 4 times a day and runs to D16, puts it open a lot of scrutiny. Anyway, moving on and sticking broadly on topic, its a cooler start than expected here with only 6c on the menu for daybreak, so given the highs expected today in patch, one can expect some extreme chopping and changing with the Temps over the coming days when either inflicted by storms by day or if lucky/unlucky you might remain sunny all day and hence, warm to very warm. True Summer weather coming up, couldn't ask for more in my opinion. Keep the analyses coming chaps.

Edited June 6, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[knocker]

Morning all. With this weekend looking a bit of a write off a look at next weekend with the GFS.

 

The 500mb anomaly has a deep pool of cold air over the Arctic with a trough stretching into Scandinavia. The warm air is centred over S. Greenland with a ridge in the eastern Atlantic with an arm stretching SE into Europe giving a WSW flow over the UK.

 

The surface analysis for Friday through Sunday.

 

Friday

 

A huge area of low pressure covers most of eastern Europe and Scandinavia with a centre over Stockholm with high pressure to the W/SW leaving the UK in a trough bringing showers to the North from the easterly. Apart from Scotland and the west temps touching the upper 60s.

 

Saturday

 

Low still in the Baltic with trough extended to the North Sea but the high pressure has gained ascendancy giving a northerly flow over the UK. Temps good in England but lower with rain in Scotland.

 

Sunday

 

Low now south of Norway bringing strong northerlies to the North Sea but the UK still in the northerly flow from the anticyclone to the west. Wet in England and Wales and temps fairly depressed except in central and southern England.

 

Confidence naturally very low that this will actually pan out of course.

Edited June 6, 2014 by knocker