Convective / storm Discussion - 22nd May 2014 onwards

[BrickFielder]

 One or two embedded storms in the occluded front over the uk and as it moves north and temperature rises we could see some heavy rainfall totals. The steepest lapse rates don't arrive until the afternoon from the South East though.

 

Charts which caught my eye today.

 

Low level wind convergence in some places, meaning winds will be turning potentially in the lowest level.

 

Some places will have winds gently turning through the mid levels. The winds are light so its not really an indicator but its still interesting.

 

 

A bit of a dry slot at 700hpa height meaning possibly a bit of cloud clearance.

 

 

Dry air coming in aloft from the south east.

 

 

Some divergence at the mid levels helping lift and vorticity moving north.

 

Oh dear. Not much instability and lift. Temperatures and cloud cover maybe scuppering storm potential.

 

Over all its a bit hard to tell although I have noticed a few weak storms over north france so there is some hope. Favoured areas for storms might be South east moving into the Midlands late afternoon. Up draughts are not likely to be that strong and wind sheer is generally low so severe storms are unlikely. Very slight risk of short lived tornado based on observations that low level cloud is not hanging about and there are indications of some wind convergence in places in the models.

 

[Speedway Slider]

Crud clearing Leicester at what time anyone?

Cheers

Speedway Slider

[TonyH]

Crud clearing Leicester at what time anyone?CheersSpeedway Slider

Did you not read my reply to your previous post? I estimate around 1400, may not be especially sunny, but the worst of the cloud and rain through by then I reckon.

Edited May 24, 2014 by TonyH

[Panayiotis]

Sferics going off now to the South of Brighton, the cells over the Channel producing these died down but now they have seem to re intensified...

Edited May 24, 2014 by Panayiotis

[William Grimsley]

I can't believe this. Cruddy light rain and the band isn't moving. I hope this hasn't my chances ruined now.

Edited May 24, 2014 by William Grimsley

[TonyH]

Chances quite remote for thunder in any case William

[cobbett]

Sferics going off now to the South of Brighton, the cells over the Channel producing these died down but now they have seem to re intensified...

Yep and looks like taking a direct line to me - hopefully some interest a bit later on

[Gordon Webb]

latest bbc forecast has heavy showers with thunder in southern england this afternoon a drier slot through the midlands note the word drier the rain for elsewhere apart from scotland and northern ireland with only has a few scattered showers but definitely the further south you are the heavier the showers according to the beeb

Edited May 24, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[William Grimsley]

Chances quite remote for thunder in any case William

I wasn't on about thunder, I was on about some decent slow moving downpours.

[Bobby]

I wasn't on about thunder, I was on about some decent slow moving downpours.

 

Early yet, I expect some slow moving downpours to become fairly widespread later, not expecting widepsread thunder though.

[Mapantz]

Sferics quite old now..

[William Grimsley]

Early yet, I expect some slow moving downpours to become fairly widespread later, not expecting widepsread thunder though.

Ok, thanks.

[Mapantz]

Funnel cloud near St Dominick, Cornwall yesterday. Courtesy of Ralph Bird on Twitter.

[Supacell]

The seas around the UK are seeing some storms so far, but not much inland.

[William Grimsley]

Funnel cloud near St Dominick, Cornwall yesterday. Courtesy of Ralph Bird on Twitter.

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifImage-51331.jpg

Nice photo!

[Gordon Webb]

beeb forecast them for southern england and the south east this afternoon in the main with drier slot through midlands and the more rain in the north of england curling back down to wales and the south west so best chance is south and south east england more especially the se i would have thought

[Dancerwithwings]

Interesting looking at the radar http://www.raintoday.co.uk/mobile in what's coming out of the France & Channel atm, I believe that's heading for the SE & Midlands for later!

Nice Looking spiral in the English Channel with a few Sferics starting to build and for the North West also http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/index.php?bo_showmap=sat_europe_mpe〈=fr

 

CLICK Animation

Edited May 24, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looking good down south today good luck all!!

[TonyH]

I wasn't on about thunder, I was on about some decent slow moving downpours.

Yes they are quite likely!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That storm in the channel is doing it's best to get going

[William Grimsley]

Yes they are quite likely!

Ah good, hope so but not banking on it.

[TonyH]

Devon/ Cornwall borders looking quite interesting recently.

[ancientsolar]

Devon/ Cornwall borders looking quite interesting recently.

Torrential rain... could spark at any time!

[Wilxy]

Ah good, hope so but not banking on it.

 

The rain is pivoting right on your location currently could be interesting soon down your way 

[vladthemert]

Funnel cloud near St Dominick, Cornwall yesterday. Courtesy of Ralph Bird on Twitter.

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifImage-51331.jpg

 

very good pick there from Ralph thanks Mapantz