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Jane Louise

Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards

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It's a shame about yesterday but we all may have another chance tonight and tomorrow. :bomb:  So here's another new thread for a new day. :) Good Luck everybody. :D

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I missed out last few days maybe next time I will be lucky :nonono:

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just watched the updated weather on bbc and the thunderstorms bit was dropped for tonight, very heavy rain upto 20-30mm for some with the risk of thunder for some which makes me think its a non event for my area again, lets see what the rest of the week brings us

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I missed out last few days maybe next time I will be lucky :nonono:

Yeah I am still waiting too

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It's a shame about yesterday but we all may have another chance tonight and tomorrow. :bomb:  So here's another new thread for a new day. :) Good Luck everybody. :D

 

Love the optimism but I really think we are at a loss tonight.

 

Zero potential energy about.

Posted Image

 

 

Even storm "risk" is minimal.

Posted Image

 

Convergence?

Not really any good, clear air masses colliding.

Posted Image

 

Estofex have nothing for us.

 

I fear its gonna be quiet with heavy rain moving in later. ( No thunder me finks )

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What can of changed between earlier BBC forecasts with thunderstorms, to now, only an hours difference and the T word has been lost, replaced by thundery rain?

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Yeah I am still waiting too

 

Ditto

 

Looking at GooFuS for tonight the precip forecast does seem to suggest multicellular/MCS structures becoming frontal in nature before they reach the UK. Could be some very lively rainfall tonight and perhaps too some occasional thunder although the lack of instability here (unless there is any stray MLCAPE available) would militate against this I fear.

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After the week we have had I don't really think we can make any real judgement on anything until it is actually on our doorstep.. 

 

The models have been really poor this week.. So sit back relax and just wait and see what mother nature brings.. 

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What can of changed between earlier BBC forecasts with thunderstorms, to now, only an hours difference and the T word has been lost, replaced by thundery rain?

 

There is potential there but it is to our east over the near continent. My guess is that the Met Office believed this to be further west across the UK which is what the models were showing last night. As expected it's moved east. There does look to be a very slight chance of the far east of EA getting clipped by something a little thundery but it's a straw clutch:

 

Tomorrow looks to see instability build once more with nearly 1000j/kg of CAPE (probably slightly overstated to be fair), LI's of around -3 and a nice swathe of converging winds across the central slice of England and Wales. There is some deep layer shear and low level shear too although this is being pushed off eastwards through the day. 

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Well netweather seem to be confident with this saying we may be all woke up lol.

As always it will end up over the Low Countries just like it did last night.

Schveningen cam will be quite useful.

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Love the optimism but I really think we are at a loss tonight.

 

Zero potential energy about.

Posted Image

 

 

Even storm "risk" is minimal.

Posted Image

 

Convergence?

Not really any good, clear air masses colliding.

Posted Image

 

Estofex have nothing for us.

 

I fear its gonna be quiet with heavy rain moving in later. ( No thunder me finks )

Tell tale sign is Gatwick and Stansted airports long TAFs don't include thunder.

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Let's wait and see NickF's (and Brickfielder and co's) analyses

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Well this is what the nmm is showing for tomorrow evening!!a band if thunderstorms moving up from the south and into east anglia and the east midlands!!not all is lost yet!!

post-9030-0-86880200-1400661092_thumb.pn

post-9030-0-91953900-1400661098_thumb.pn

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Don't give up hope folks :)

 http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5904;sess=

 

Maybe Estofex will show something tonight. :)

 

Their forecasts usually go up to 6am the following day so I suspect they're unlikely to do that :cray:

 

Tomorrow though looking promising for swathes of people so its not as if opportunities are drying up any time soon.

Well this is what the nmm is showing for tomorrow evening!!a band if thunderstorms moving up from the south and into east anglia and the east midlands!!not all is lost yet!!

 

Hmm...this is presumably before the fronts engage and activity rapidly develops along them. 

 

Much like the other night, I suspect that any thunderstorms which blow up in France and move North will decay rapidly once out the zone of CAPE.

 

Anyone able to give a view on MLCAPE indications as I do not have access to these.

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Their forecasts usually go up to 6am the following day so I suspect they're unlikely to do that :cray:

 

Tomorrow though looking promising for swathes of people so its not as if opportunities are drying up any time soon.

 

Hmm...this is presumably before the fronts engage and activity rapidly develops along them. 

 

Much like the other night, I suspect that any thunderstorms which blow up in France and move North will decay rapidly once out the zone of CAPE.

 

Anyone able to give a view on MLCAPE indications as I do not have access to these.

 

Not so sure, Harry. I think the south-east has a better chance than that tonight:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80167-south-east-england-east-anglia-central-southern-england-regional-weather-chat/?p=2972480

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Hmm...this is presumably before the fronts engage and activity rapidly develops along them. 

 

Much like the other night, I suspect that any thunderstorms which blow up in France and move North will decay rapidly once out the zone of CAPE.

 

Anyone able to give a view on MLCAPE indications as I do not have access to these.

 

Shaky's post is relating to tomorrow evening whereby CAPE is going to much higher across England. However, not sure that the charts are showing storms moving up from the continent but rather home grown storms over the UK moving across the East Midlands and East Anglia. WRF/NMM indicate 1000j/kg or thereabouts in these regions at 6pm tomorrow so plenty enough energy.

Edited by Supacell

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Tonight is perhaps 50/50 for the likes of East Anglia and Kent. Looking at the satellite, Belgium is shrouded in leftover crud from storms further south so that should limit cape there! Whereas we are basking in the sun as well as Western France. This will be interesting to watch that's for sure.

Please (telling myself this too) don't be disheartened if this is a bust though. We've still got all of summer to go yet :)

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There is potential there but it is to our east over the near continent. My guess is that the Met Office believed this to be further west across the UK which is what the models were showing last night. As expected it's moved east. There does look to be a very slight chance of the far east of EA getting clipped by something a little thundery but it's a straw clutch: Tomorrow looks to see instability build once more with nearly 1000j/kg of CAPE (probably slightly overstated to be fair), LI's of around -3 and a nice swathe of converging winds across the central slice of England and Wales. There is some deep layer shear and low level shear too although this is being pushed off eastwards through the day.

There is potential there but it is to our east over the near continent. My guess is that the Met Office believed this to be further west across the UK which is what the models were showing last night. As expected it's moved east. There does look to be a very slight chance of the far east of EA getting clipped by something a little thundery but it's a straw clutch: Tomorrow looks to see instability build once more with nearly 1000j/kg of CAPE (probably slightly overstated to be fair), LI's of around -3 and a nice swathe of converging winds across the central slice of England and Wales. There is some deep layer shear and low level shear too although this is being pushed off eastwards through the day.

Hmm, ok thanks, now tomorrow night, I'm at Sheffield Speedway, Machine Examining/Equipment Scrutineering, will it be a washout? Is their Thunderstorm potenrisk for Owlerton, Sheffield from say 5pm?

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Hmm, ok thanks, now tomorrow night, I'm at Sheffield Speedway, Machine Examining/Equipment Scrutineering, will it be a washout? Is their Thunderstorm potenrisk for Owlerton, Sheffield from say 5pm?

Potenrisk???? How the hell did that non-word appear? Is it a cross between potential and risk?It meant to say potential.....

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Is (CAPE) static? I mean if it builds over Leicester, it stays over Leicester, it doesn't get blown around/move with a front, and the weather/cloud/rain moves into an area with cape or without cape? Do you see what I mean.....?

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Is (CAPE) static? I mean if it builds over Leicester, it stays over Leicester, it doesn't get blown around/move with a front, and the weather/cloud/rain moves into an area with cape or without cape? Do you see what I mean.....?

 

In meteorologyconvective available potential energy(CAPE),[1] sometimes, simply, available potential energy(APE), is the amount of energy a parcel of air would have if lifted a certain distance vertically through the atmosphere. CAPE is effectively the positive buoyancy of an air parcel and is an indicator of atmospheric instability, which makes it very valuable in predicting severe weather. It is a form of fluid instability found in thermally stratified atmospheres in which a colder fluid overlies a warmer one. As explained below, when an air mass is unstable, the element of the air mass that is displaced upwards is accelerated by the pressure differential between the displaced air and the ambient air at the (higher) altitude to which it was displaced. This usually creates vertically developed clouds from convection, due to the rising motion, which can eventually lead to thunderstorms. It could also be created in other phenomenon, such as a cold front. Even if the air is cooler on the surface, there is still warmer air in the mid-levels, that can rise into the upper-levels. However, if there is not enough water vapor present, there is no ability for condensation, thus storms, clouds, and rain will not form.

 

COPY AND PASTE FROM WIKI!

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Not so sure, Harry. I think the south-east has a better chance than that tonight:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80167-south-east-england-east-anglia-central-southern-england-regional-weather-chat/?p=2972480

 

Ah ok that sounds good to me :D

 

Despite feeling 'fresher' this morning, when I arrived at work it did feel as if the humidity was back on the climb again...would be nice if so.

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After the misses I have had this week, I think I may go APE!

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Shaky's post is relating to tomorrow evening whereby CAPE is going to much higher across England. However, not sure that the charts are showing storms moving up from the continent but rather home grown storms over the UK moving across the East Midlands and East Anglia. WRF/NMM indicate 1000j/kg or thereabouts in these regions at 6pm tomorrow so plenty enough energy.

 

Yes sorry schoolboy error on my part - indeed tomorrow evening/night does seem quite promising I have to say...even UKMO is picking up on some potentially imported stuff at this range.

 

We could of course be at the mercy of NE shift which will need to bear in mind for any charts which emerge in the next 24 - 36 hours!!

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