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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

The sun is actually out here now...

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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

From the lightning strikes, I reckon the French storms are taking the usual route - i.e. North sea via Belgium.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Wtf... The clouds are starting to move north west - west sudden change!Long night ahead..

How do you know its not just the top ie the cirrus canopy of the anvils that is spreading westwards? It could be just spreading out giving the impression it's moving in that direction when infact the parent cloud isn't?
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Wtf... The clouds are starting to move north west - west sudden change!

Long night ahead..

Emmmm.... It does seem that way!

 

Posted Image

 

But the Rainfall Radar is showing the rain moving NE

 

Posted Image

 

But as i've heard so many times at this stage, forget the forecast!

It's a NOWCAST!!!

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Going by the Met Office rainfall forecast map some lucky people in the SE corner could see some lightning later on from the stuff currently over France. Cannot see it moving much more West in my opinion.

 

For the rest, heavy rain with perhaps some thunder, but I think the best chances are when any showers form in the afternoon, as a humid airmass moves in behind and (hopefully) strong sunshine gets them to work.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Looking at http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&subpage_0=10 it has intensified somewhat but yes it could be a long night but I think its more tomorrow for us UK lot  :)

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

Emmmm.... It does seem that way!

 

Posted Image

 

But the Rainfall Radar is showing the rain moving NE

 

Posted Image

If that's correct it wont even hit the South East :laugh:

Strange Meteox.com has all the lightning moving NE

:unknw:

Edited by DAVID SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

12z gfs again uninspiring for storms during the overnight period. The majority of the moisture rich theta-e air mass moves NE across benelux, with rainfall more dynamic across the majority of southern counties due to saturated profiles....possible the extreme SE might see some lightning over the channel, but little in the way of instability that I can see of.....Also possible judging by the 12z gfs that the Devon/Cornwall might see something due to some reasonable potential  mid-level instability coinciding with the occlusion passing through, although there's little WAA in that region. 

 

Tomrrow daytime though in the post frontal airmass looks much better with plenty of convective energy available (throughout the atmosphere) with favoured areas getting extra forcing from local convergence.....I'll have a look at the higher res NMM run when it rolls out shortly

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Hmmm, I'm not going to get my hopes up tonight. There is no activity heading this way and with no instability present over the English Channel, things are looking dull.

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Well BBC seems to think the storm will come right through the UK from about Plymouth through the the Belgian coast by the looks of the graphics.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

Emmmm.... It does seem that way!

 

Posted Image

 

But the Rainfall Radar is showing the rain moving NE

 

Posted Image

 

But as i've heard so many times at this stage, forget the forecast!

It's a NOWCAST!!!

Yes, the low pressure south west of it is it's core I think, and its gradually being pulled back west, like it's one of the arms of a spinning spiral galaxy...! Do you see what I mean..?
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

not expecting anything here now it's kinda..

 

Dude, where's my clouds?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.. Heavy snow.
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley

Storm system becoming less electrified by the looks of it.  About right

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Storm system becoming less electrified by the looks of it.  About right

Its not looking at the real time lighining, its still going strong...

EDIT: Lots of strikes near the coast of France now....

EDIT2: Strikes just to the south of Kent now!!

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France

The rain is moving N but the electrical activity is mostly connected with the trough that is to the E of the cold front in the warm sector. The triple point crosses central southern UK so most electrical activity will be well to the east of that

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.. Heavy snow.
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley

Its not looking at the real time lighining, its still going strong...

 

Thats what i'm using, it seems to be less active on my computer.

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Sure does look like a beefy MCS over France and other clusters of storms (5pm image)

 

http://extweb.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/images/msg/HRV.jpg

 

Also a clear dry air intrusion around W France on this water vapour image, that could be interesting tomorrow?

 

Posted Image

 

As a cyclone develops there is typically an intrusion of dry air equatorward of the low pressure system between the intensifying surface low center and the cold front. This air originates near the tropopause fold or break, descends on the backside of the developing cyclone to mid tropospheric levels, and starts to rise once it is east of the upper trough that is associated with the developing cyclone. This dry air eventually rises over the CCB parallel to the WCB. The penetration of this dry air over the low level moisture creates potential instability that may be released as convective clouds. The dry air intrusion is usually obvious on water vapor imagery.

 

It does look more like heavy rain for most tonight with the odd bit of thundriness apart from SE England which may see something more substantial. Tomorrow looks more interesting, I feel there could be some beefy thunderstorms and downpours in the post frontal environment although probably not widespread.

 

Met Office still quite bullish for thunder tonight and tomorrow for Wales, more than I am for tonight... we'll see what we'll see

 

This Evening and Tonight:
A fine end to the day with some brightness, but gradually clouding over. Outbreaks of rain will soon arrive in the south and east, spreading to all parts through the early hours, bringing heavy downpours, and the risk of thunder. Minimum Temperature 9 °C.

Thursday:
Heavy, thundery rain will clear northwards during the morning, allowing some drier and brighter spells to develop. Sunny spells and slow moving showers, with a risk of thunder, will follow Maximum Temperature 16 °C.

Edited by Bobby
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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

According to that, there have strikes exploding in the channel now.

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Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms of any kind, Snow
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London

Finally some lightning has appeared over the channel! Although not much to get excited about...

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Yep, seems to be heading for the UK now....

 

post-17320-0-05936400-1400694714_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Its not looking at the real time lighining, its still going strong...

EDIT: Lots of strikes near the coast of France now....

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

Hope we don't all end up looking like your avatar Panayiotis,  waiting for a decent thunderstorm to turn up this summer!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

According to that, there have strikes exploding in the channel now.

False detections I'm afraid

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Hope we don't all end up looking like your avatar Panayiotis,  waiting for a decent thunderstorm to turn up this summer!

Haha, these storms seem to have Kent, Ipswich, Norwich and coastal areas in the far south-east in there sight!

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