Convective / Storm Discussion - 14th May 2014 onwards

[Neilsouth]

Metcheck aren't forecasting any storms for my area, so I should get some later in the week!

 

Nor are Estofex, looking hopeful!

[The PIT]

Wait til Monday evening and then see what the updated forecasts say. Not a good idea to look to far ahead as forecasting T Storms is as difficult as Forecasting snow.

[Nick L]

Wait til Monday evening and then see what the updated forecasts say. Not a good idea to look to far ahead as forecasting T Storms is as difficult as Forecasting snow.

 

I think storms are even more difficult due to the more isolated nature of them. It's nigh-on impossible to predict exact locations of thunderstorm development, and some days the cap may/may not break and go against forecasts.

 

Thunderstorms are the ultimate nowcast weather phenomenon IMO!

[Mokidugway]

Looks like some convergence over north wales at mo, might be worth watching !!.....

[Convective]

Place to watch this evening, in my opinion, is the Saint-Brieuc to Le Havre area where storms are expected to develop, hopefully elevated, before moving north over the Channel and into Wales then into Northwest England by tomorrow morning.

[Greeny]

Beautifully sunny here in Norwich, not even a cloud in the sky, just a bit hazy. Nice and hot even hotter than yesterday. No storms for us today but that's ok cause weather like this can be just as enjoyable!

[Jane Louise]

Lovely and hot here! my weather station is showing 25c but not sureif that is right . A lot of convective cloud forming too,but I guess if anything was to happen it would be in the early hours of the morning.

[William Grimsley]

Just a couple of precipitation charts, as a rough guide of where things might begin during the early hours, but really, I'll just stick to the radar from midnight.

WRF, NMM, GFS, Euro 4

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifindex.pnghttp:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifviewimage (2).pnghttp:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifviewimage (1).pnghttp:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gif14051903_1800.gif

An area of strong PVA in the south west could help with any developments, this moves north west, up through Wales, so I'd say areas in the south west (west of the IoW) might see something during the very early hours, then the risk runs in to Wales and north west England by Monday morning, certainly hints that it Will be more widespread tomorrow.

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifRmgfs217.gif

Dew points are progged to be highest in the channel & south coast, although nothing spectacular.

Sferics could appear if anything develops the channel first, whether they'll continue if they move inland, is another question..

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifRmgfs218.gif

It all begins today, with a risk further north, the risk begins in the south tonight, and many opportunities for many through the week, so all in all, a fun period of weather watching coming up!

I meant it begins today

I'm near the coast, does this look like a higher chance for me?

[William Grimsley]

Place to watch this evening, in my opinion, is the Saint-Brieuc to Le Havre area where storms are expected to develop, hopefully elevated, before moving north over the Channel and into Wales then into Northwest England by tomorrow morning.

Bring it on, son!

[Bobby]

A week of interesting weather for storm lovers starts tonight. Let the games begin!

 

The storm window here closes for 3 months soon as we no longer get summer thunderstorms due to the activation of the Valleys Summer Storm Shield sometime around 2006. No a proper summer storm since although we've had many outside summer. So hopefully we can some get action over the next few days.

Edited May 18, 2014 by Bobby

[William Grimsley]

I'm slightly worried about this and I don't know why. The clouds over N France and tiny cumulus clouds and nothing is elevated yet. Hopefully, they will start getting going later and quickly drift over the English Channel. But, BBC Weather are showing a dry but cloudy night. I wonder what will happen. I'm certainly not getting my hopes up. Does anyone know or take a guess on when the storms will start over the English Channel?

[Supacell]

I'm slightly worried about this and I don't know why. The clouds over N France and tiny cumulus clouds and nothing is elevated yet. Hopefully, they will start getting going later and quickly drift over the English Channel. But, BBC Weather are showing a dry but cloudy night. I wonder what will happen. I'm certainly not getting my hopes up. Does anyone know or take a guess on when the storms will start over the English Channel?

 

I don't know but I can guess. According to GFS it will be around 6pm when precipitation breaks out over Northern France. WRF is a little later.

[Bobby]

I'm slightly worried about this and I don't know why. The clouds over N France and tiny cumulus clouds and nothing is elevated yet. Hopefully, they will start getting going later and quickly drift over the English Channel. But, BBC Weather are showing a dry but cloudy night. I wonder what will happen. I'm certainly not getting my hopes up. Does anyone know or take a guess on when the storms will start over the English Channel?

 

There might be something of interest in the SW later tonight but the real interest starts tomorrow and into Tuesday, so early days yet. Inititally I don't think we will be looking at imports more home grown stuff so I wouldn't worry much about what's happening over France. I think there could be some imports later next week though.

Also we could see some heavy rain developing but limited thunderiness, very much up in the air and wait an see.

[matt_in_dudley]

Beautiful day again here. Cloud has started to develop throughout the afternoon. Starting to become hazy now.

[William Grimsley]

I don't know but I can guess. According to GFS it will be around 6pm when precipitation breaks out over Northern France. WRF is a little later.

Ok, thanks for the information.

[Convective]

I don't know but I can guess. According to GFS it will be around 6pm when precipitation breaks out over Northern France. WRF is a little later.

 

Beat me to it, GFS output suggests not even light showers until 6pm, over Northern France. This suggests that these showers will be elevated, fueled by the first plume.

Edited May 18, 2014 by Convective

[William Grimsley]

There might be something of interest in the SW later tonight but the real interest starts tomorrow and into Tuesday, so early days yet. Inititally I don't think we will be looking at imports more home grown stuff so I wouldn't worry much about what's happening over France. I think there could be some imports later next week though.

Also we could see some heavy rain developing but limited thunderiness, very much up in the air and wait an see.

Sounds good. Imports are much better than home grown thunderstorms here especially in the Summer because the land heats up more than the sea hence the recent sea breezes. However, in the winter home grown thunderstorms are better because they develop over the sea better than over the land. I'll just have to wait and see. Let's just hope they happen at the right time and not in a GCSE exam, this week.

[William Grimsley]

Beat me to it, GFS output suggests not even light showers until 6pm, over Northern France. This suggests that these showers will be elevated, fueled by the first plume.

So, does that mean that the showers will develop over the English Channel not over France and that the clouds will have high tops to them?

[William Grimsley]

I have to say, the amount of cumulus over N France is encouraging meaning there is more chance of something being elevated, later.

[Summer Sun]

Dry and very warm again tomorrow for central and eastern parts though the rest of the week showers will begin to increase whether we'll see much thunder remains to be seen but Tuesday could be the main day where thunderstorms could break out just about anywhere

 

Edited May 18, 2014 by Summer Sun

[William Grimsley]

Dry and very warm again tomorrow for central and eastern parts though the rest of the week showers will begin to increase whether we'll see much thunder remains to be seen but Tuesday could be the main day where thunderstorms could break out just about anywhere

 

Hmmm, not much mention of thunder. When the BBC mentions thunder it definitely thunders.

[Weather-history]

Cumulus development over Manchester area.

[NUT]

There seems to be something over south east scotland (although not electrified)

Edited May 18, 2014 by NUT

[Mokidugway]

Cumulus development over Manchester area.

iI'm in chorlton at mo , looks like its going to do something !!..

[chapmanslade]

I have to say, the amount of cumulus over N France is encouraging meaning there is more chance of something being elevated, later.

Forget the cumulus over France. Plume destabilisation is what you are looking for which will show up over the SW later today but more significantly on Monday. This will be elevated in nature and so the boundary layer is irrelevant (sea or land temperatures). Surface based convection will be later in the week.