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Paul

Storm Chase Tour 1 - Starts This Weekend

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I think they're in Irving, but are planning a fairly early start this morning - that may have changed since the last time I spoke to them though.

Be good to hear Paul's thoughts, but with an early start I reckon that they could make southern KS by initiation time and decide where exactly to head for on the way. I think that I would make out for Arkansas City Southern KS to be there around 3pm local time.

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Trip to Iowa tomorrow by the looks of it. Could be a good introduction for them chase virgins. Chance of violent and long track tornados

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For Sunday 11th, I like the southern end of the mdt risk zone and in fact I expect it may be extended into western OK which is perhaps where the best chase potential might lie. Dry line is going to make relatively slow progress into sw KS and far w OK between 18z and 21z -- no doubt plenty of severe storms further northeast but may have rain wrap issues and note they will be on q.s. polar front not a dry line, while the OK storms look more discrete and so would personally favour chase target in box Clinton-Woodward to Enid-Ponca City OK possibly as far north as southern KS south of Pratt to Wichita line. Note also upper level winds 50% stronger near base of upper trough in n TX to w OK, and RGEM suggests discrete cells in OK late bloomers (00-03z) with all-night severity towards I-35 corridor. But no doubt tornadic potential all the way to Iowa, just have the feeling OK may give best videography.

 

Good luck.

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Well, we're in St Joseph's Missouri tonight, which has us nicely placed for the spud state tomorrow! But there's plenty a brewing lightning wise by the looks of things into the early hours still (it's 2.30am....) :)

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I am going for a starting point of Concordia KS for Sunday. This is slightly west of the teams current position and towards the southern end of the moderate risk zone. Conditions here hopefully will be ripe for long lived supercell formation, dewpoints into the mid to high 60's, temps into the high 80's by mid afternoon situated along the warm front where surface wind convergence will aid the uplift. God, I wish I was out there!

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

Stay safe folks!

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