Scotland & The Far North Of England Regional Weather Chat

[NorthernRab]

This morning's GFS is very entertaining in the last few charts though!

[mistyqueen]

Well, what an infuriating and frustrating day yesterday was! I had a dental appointment in Kyle early morning, so I left home in plenty of time knowing that the storm was due to hit. I drove over the bridge, it was  calm. Bridge was closed to high sided vehicles.I got to Kyle just after nine, was in and out of the dentist's by 9.40.....and the bridge was closed, not just to High sider's....closed to everything! Hmmmm. I was puzzled, as were many others in Kyle and it wasn't that windy. No really, it wasn't. Breezy, yes, but I couldn't see why the bridge was closed. I spent five hours wandering around Kyle. Those of you who have been there will realise that it doesn't take long to wander around. Most of the shops were closed, but I managed to buy a newspaper and hit the co-op to do some shopping. I visited the only caff there, twice, they do very good hot chocolate and scones! It was doing a roaring trade by 2 o'clock when I went back again! At one point I even walked up to the bridge to see how windy it was up there and how long the queue was. Queue wasn't so bad as polis were asking car drivers to go back to Kyle and park there, leave space at the bridge for high siders. It wasn't even that windy either. Lots of folks frustrated, including the Polis!  Bridge finally opened around 3pm.  Got home spitting feathers. Really not happy, I realise that some parts of the NW got a bit of a battering and ferries were cancelled and suchlike, but BEAR Scotland will be in for another roasting over this closure.

 

 Last time, not so long ago, the bridge was closed for seven hours, huge tailbacks in Skye and on the mainland, and once again, the wind wasn't as bad as had been forecast. Over the years the bridge has stayed open during worse weather than we had yesterday, but now the merest puff and everything shuts down! GGGGGGRRRRRRRR!

[mistyqueen]

Boom, here comes winter:

 

22nd Oct GFS +384hrs.png

 

I'm off to order my sledge, my hat, my gloves, a snow shovel, snow chains for the car, emergency rations for being snowed in for three months and I'll not forget to pick up my Express on the way home.

 

And if you get that lot in, guess what will happen? I'm off to get a new swimsuit and flippers....

[Sunny Leith]

Just checking in for the start of the winter (well more or less) ...good to see so many well kent faces on here holding the fort !

 

Think it was probably the goose migration story that stirred my thoughts for the coming months...whens all the kilted thread's long rangers coming out ?

Edited October 23, 2014 by by-tor

[Big Innes Madori]

Just checking in for the start of the winter (well more or less) ...good to see so many well kent faces on here holding the fort !

 

Think it was probably the goose migration story that stirred my thoughts for the coming months...whens all the kilted thread's long rangers coming out ?

Aye BT, it's when see young LS appearing and then him and Lorenzo tae name but a few of our Techie guys giving their take on how things might go during the coming winter season eh!

Snaw shovels at the ready!!!

Big Innes

Edited October 23, 2014 by Big Innes Madori

[LomondSnowstorm]

 

Just checking in for the start of the winter (well more or less) ...good to see so many well kent faces on here holding the fort !

 

Think it was probably the goose migration story that stirred my thoughts for the coming months...whens all the kilted thread's long rangers coming out ?

 

Good to see you back on the forum Paul, definitely lots of interest already for the coming winter.

I'm holding off putting mine out until next weekend when we'll get the final Snow Advance Index/October Pattern Index scores (and also once the worst of the weekly hand ins are finished) but having done most of the pattern matching and analogue finding already let's just say SS may well get a few chances to properly test out his tyres this winter...

Lorenzo is putting his forecast out jointly with Chiono I believe as well, which will make for interesting reading.

Ensembles suggesting a generally westerly pattern for the end of October into November, but with a bit of amplification upstream meaning more in the way of Polar Maritime sourced air with the potential for toppler northerlies down the line. 

Edited October 23, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

SS may well get a few chances to properly test out his tyres this winter...

 

 

New rubber going on Monday morning. Temperatures during commute already getting into winter rubber range (below 7 C) with a few frosts to date.

 

Was rather sad to say goodbye to my Wintracs, but they lasted a good few winters (3.5 I think) even with my 70 mile/day round trip commute.

 

Trying out some Falkens which were £16 cheaper per corner but with decent reviews (better than the wintracs it seems) and same V speed rating. 

 

Mon the snaw.

[lorenzo]

Looking forward to seeing oor wee Regional thread at full tilt this Winter, may even be enough Arctic juice in the tank to keep HC happy this year

 

Good to see you are working on a forecast too LS, enjoyed reading last years. Totally new venture for me and a privilege really to be involved, have been working hard this last couple few weeks getting as much information together as possible to pull things together and look forward to sharing in due course.

 

Also got to get winter tyres sorted as new car is rear wheel drive and notoriously rubbish in Winter, having drifted it a couple of times by accident, proper tyres are a must -  any tips appreciated !

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

proper tyres are a must -  any tips appreciated !

 

http://www.oponeo.co.uk/

 

First time I've used them and prices very good. Delivered promptly too.

 

Have reviews which helps, then I had a look at comparable reviews on http://www.tyrereviews.co.uk/

 

---

 

EDIT

 

And while we wait (and hope)...

 

Some classics from Jan 2010. Peaked at 55 cm lying depth on the (picnic)benchmark.

Edited October 23, 2014 by scottish skier

[mistyqueen]

Loving the snow pics SS! Today winter seems further away than ever, very calm and so mild at 10c. In for a bit of a wake up over the next few days though...

[A Winter's Tale]

A showery day after two overcast and wet days. Looking forward to winter and hopefully we won't get a repeat of that horror show we had to endure last year lol. With November approaching, I'm thinking of a prediction game for guessing the mean temperature for Scotland in each of the months from November-March.

I see that the October Pattern Index has been of interest this year. With fluctuations from run to run, the value has comfortably been negative throughout the month and is now sub -2. The lower the value, the better the chance of colder weather in winter it seems. With data going back to the 1970s, I've had a look at winters following each of the negative OPIs since 1976, with the mean Scottish winter temperature and the mean temperatures for December, January, February. There does seem to be a strong correlation in cold winters/month(s) preceding a particularly negative OPI. Interestingly the Decembers of 2010, 1995 and 1981 occurred after an OPI lower than -1. Every winter following an OPI of -1 or lower, has had cold winter months in some shape or form.

2009 -3.15, 0.39, 0.5, 0.3, 0.4

1985 -1.9 1.28, 3.5, 1.3, -1.2

1978 -1.8 0.45, 2.4, -1.0, -0.1

1984 -1.8 2.12, 4.2, 0.2, 2.0

1976 -1.75 1.02, 0.4, 1.0, 1.7

2012 -1.65 2.49 2.4. 2.9, 2.2

1986 -1.3 2.00 3.2, 0.6, 2.2

1982 -1.1 2.49 2.4, 4.0, 0,9

1977 -0.9 1.77 4.1, 1.1, 0.0

2002 -0.9 2.96, 3.5, 2.7, 2.7

2010 -0.85 1.28 -1.8, 2.1, 3.7

2000 -0.75 2.16 3.2, 1.3, 1.9

1996 -0.75 2.48 1.8, 2.2, 3.6

1997 -0.75 4.51, 4.2, 3.2, 6.3

2005 -0.7 3.35 3.7, 3.3, 3.0

2003 -0.7 3.20, 3.2, 3.3, 3.1

1995 -0.65 1.76, 0.5, 3.5, 1.3

1979 -0.5 2.47, 2.9, 1.3, 3.3

1987 -0.45 3.14, 3.9, 2.6, 2.9

1981 -0.4 1.36, -0.7, 1.4, 3.6

1983 -0.3 2.53, 4.5, 0.2, 2.9

1999 -0.2 3.03, 1.9, 3.8, 3.5

1993 -0.15 1.77 1.7, 2.4, 1.2

1980 -0.05 2.97, 3.9, 2.8, 2.2

[Hawesy]

Morning all, dry here and not much in the way of rain expected over the next few days in coastal NE Fife. Sun's just popped out actually but wind picking up from the SW.

[mistyqueen]

Rain been coming doon like stair rods during the night, also very windy. It's off for the time being and wind has dropped a wee bit, but gauny get a wee bit mental overnight. Best get oot and tie everything doon then!

[Northernlights]

Rain been coming doon like stair rods during the night, also very windy. It's off for the time being and wind has dropped a wee bit, but gauny get a wee bit mental overnight. Best get oot and tie everything doon then!

Very windy here too but dry and sunny currently 11.4c.  Anotther huge calf this morning, calf ok but cow must have damaged nerves during calving as cannot get up, vet recommended some anti-inflammetry so patience is needed to see if she recovers .Managed to get some colostrum(first milk) for the calf very easily as she cannot kick or get up.She is however eating silage and neeps with great speed .Down to the last 5 to calve all inside  now as too dark to monitor in field.

[West Highland Storm]

Signing on for winter 2014/1 5, complete set of Dunlop D4 winter sports will be fitted to wife's car beginning of week plenty of meat left on my Continentals from last winter, daughter got Goodyear 4 Season Vectors fitted to hers yesterday.

Fort William weather is windy and bucketing rain and We've had it so good this year!

Edited October 25, 2014 by West Highland Storm

[NorthernRab]

A beautiful moment in history as the massed choir takes to Castle Hill / Am Bealach for the closing event of the Mod - great seeing the crowd singing, Flora MacDonald and the Great Glen.

Singing starts 42 seconds in with the Highland favourite Sine Bhan ("Fair Jean").

[doctormog]

Weather warning out for the NW of Scotland:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1414278000&regionName=he

 

Nowt special until you read the text:

 

 

GFS sticking with its very wet theme for the west, almost bone dry in parts of the east, notably around my house and around NL's farm further north 

 

ECM GFS 8 to 10 day charts are not very consistent at the moment, I think this is reflected in the operational output which has been all over the place (especially the ECM from what I've seen of it). Having said that I've not been fixating on the charts in full winter mode yet, so maybe it's all in my wee heid

The updated warning is even more notable and ties in with the charts suggesting over 200mm over higher parts. Shame it will be rain rather than snow (although hopefully the time will come for that soon).

[LomondSnowstorm]

How do the figures compare with years when the OPI has been positive? I'm not having a go, but would like more info Some of the negative years were followed by stinking (i.e. mild) winters. Fingers crossed it's right, but I feel like I've been here before with indicators

It's certainly not the be all and end all, but if you've been following the thread on it there are some interesting correlations between it and winter temperatures, moreso when you get out of 'neutral' territory i.e. OPI<-1. 

Of the ten winters with OPIs below -1, 7 were below average and the other three were all within 0.1 of the seasonal average. One of those was 2012/13 at -1.5, which I don't think it's unfair to say we were unlucky not to end up lower (mostly from the near miss December which ended up with a very mild period over Christmas which was never quite outweighed by the later cold, but also from the very cold March which doesn't figure in the 3 month winter average), another was 82/83 at -1, where that value fought valiantly against a freakishly massive El Nino and a +QBO to come in around the seasonal average.

With OPI positive years, even including those with a 0 value, there were 14 winters in total - one, 1990/91 (which featured a massive SSW late January which ushered in the cold February) which was below average overall.

Only 7 of the 42 winter months following a positive OPI were below average, compared to 20 out of 30 for OPI values of -1 or lower. OPI values between 0 and -1 seem to be less likely to deliver the goods - just 14 out of the 42 months from those were below average. It certainly appears to be difficult to get very cold months without a -ve OPI - all 9 sub 0C months and all 6 winters in the series more than 1C below the 61-90 average for winter as a whole all featured sub -0.5 OPIs.

 

At the moment, the OPI is heading for around -2.5, which is the second lowest in the series, so we don't actually have a lot to compare it to - for winters with -QBO, very negative OPIs and slight-moderate El Nino there's 2009/10, 1976/77 and 1986/87, all of which we'd take, and pre 77 the two which look as though they'd be comparable are 1968/69 (which featured a sub 0C February) and 1965/66, which was consistently pretty cold. 

 

So, in summary - not all -OPI winters are cold but virtually are cold winters had -OPIs, almost every winter with an OPI below -1 was cold or at least contained some intense spells of blocking, this winter's OPI looks like coming in as the second lowest in the recorded period (which admittedly isn't that long) and every other year which has had a similar OPI, QBO and ENSO has ended up colder than average. There are some nuances the value misses out, which are detailed by the OPI's creators in their winter forecast - last winter for example they highlighted that the dominant pattern over the US would be the Polar Vortex sitting over eastern Canada, and that's exactly what came off (and bizarrely what ended up lowering the AO value to below what the OPI raw numbers would've suggested). If they suggest the wave activity is likely to benefit blocking over Greenland and troughing over Europe then, put together with all the other factors, my confidence in a cold winter will be pretty high. 

[SW Saltire]

Quite a boring time of the year IMO. Love it when it's stormy or clear and sunny with cool nights but when it's grey, a little breezy with occasional showers, it just seems very dull and boring.

Perhaps, this feeling is exacerbated by the anticipation building for the coming season (especially so for the aforementioned reasons above ie OPI, East QBO etc).

Sun activity is a little high and we live on an island

surrounded by mild water so it's not a dead cert but I'd like to think the cards are 'stacked' in favour of cold compared to the norm.

The sun now hits the hill at 3:30 or so. Recently, the trees have all been cut down so that should help but last winter my house received sunlight between 9am and 11am. Hence, why my house keeps the snow a lot longer than in town.

The clocks going back tonight are certainly a sign that winter is approaching.

As an aside, I've never driven in the snow since I passed just over a year ago. That could be interesting

[skifreak]

Warning now for 200mm+ over the hills of the West Highlands and in SW wind the radar often shows heaviest precipitation over the hills of the NW side of the Great Glen - that over 48 hours is potentially an exceptional amount of rain going into the Ness catchment with spring tides peaking Sunday night / Monday lunchtime as well! The Ness catchment stretches so far West that the watershed in places is west of the West coast sea lochs, particularly around Kinlochhourn area.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Quite a boring time of the year IMO. Love it when it's stormy or clear and sunny with cool nights but when it's grey, a little breezy with occasional showers, it just seems very dull and boring.

Perhaps, this feeling is exacerbated by the anticipation building for the coming season (especially so for the aforementioned reasons above ie OPI, East QBO etc).

Sun activity is a little high and we live on an island

surrounded by mild water so it's not a dead cert but I'd like to think the cards are 'stacked' in favour of cold compared to the norm.

The sun now hits the hill at 3:30 or so. Recently, the trees have all been cut down so that should help but last winter my house received sunlight between 9am and 11am. Hence, why my house keeps the snow a lot longer than in town.

The clocks going back tonight are certainly a sign that winter is approaching.

As an aside, I've never driven in the snow since I passed just over a year ago. That could be interesting

 

Yep, solar activity is potentially the only fly in the ointment, and we have to hope that the current sunspot activity (driven largely by the one big sunspot)  dies down a bit. If it's borderline between solar max and solar min values, as we were heading towards before the current activity perked up, then I reckon we'll get away with it. 

The other interesting factor is the warmth in the Pacific - it looks maybe a bit less intense than it was a month or so ago, crucially closer to Alaska, but last year that led to the Alaskan ridge which drove the jet south across the states and led to it being turbo charged once it got over our way:

 

I suspect we may still have to deal with a fairly strong jet at times as a result of this, although if we get a negative NAO that isn't based too far west it could turn out to be a positive by reinforcing low heights to the south and providing battleground snowfall setups.

[SW Saltire]

Yep, solar activity is potentially the only fly in the ointment, and we have to hope that the current sunspot activity (driven largely by the one big sunspot)  dies down a bit. If it's borderline between solar max and solar min values, as we were heading towards before the current activity perked up, then I reckon we'll get away with it. 

The other interesting factor is the warmth in the Pacific - it looks maybe a bit less intense than it was a month or so ago, crucially closer to Alaska, but last year that led to the Alaskan ridge which drove the jet south across the states and led to it being turbo charged once it got over our way:

sst.png

 

I suspect we may still have to deal with a fairly strong jet at times as a result of this, although if we get a negative NAO that isn't based too far west it could turn out to be a positive by reinforcing low heights to the south and providing battleground snowfall setups.

Cheers for the reply LS,

Completely agree. That was my interpretation of RJS's winter forecast. I'm sure we'll have a period of dry, cold weather but it would appear that (that forecast anyway) there will be a reasonable Atlantic this season. Hopefully we can get that Jet to dig south, keeping us cold.

A battle between high pressure (probably Scandi based high as opposed to Greenland - just a hunch) and the mild Atlantic. Let's hope for battleground scenarios and being the 'good' side of them.

It was very frustrating when the 'low' which gave Cardiff a foot of snow and led to met issuing a 'red warning' didn't reach as far north as was initially predicted. March 2013 was perfect for here but I watched in horror as successive model runs showed snow making it to Stirling and almost allowing the milder air to get in here, to then snow to Hamilton, to Moffat and then barely making the border. This prompted those south of the border posters to say it won't get past Manchester, 'I'll get snow'. Thankfully, it did make it here but just 30 miles away there was little more than an inch. Very fine lines.

I'm not sure I can take many more of the battleground, will it snow IMBY situations.....

[mistyqueen]

Well, been blawin' a hoolie all day yesterday and all night too. As for the rain.....pass me my flippers please! More today, but at least mid week looks like a vast improvement.

[West Highland Storm]

Lived in Fort William all my life, when someone from Fort William says its very heavy rainfall, everybody else would be using terms like biblical and monsoon.

[Hawesy]

Morning all, given the weather elsewhere I'm almost embarrassed to say the sun is out here in Crail and it's mild and breezy. 12.3c currently.

One look at the radar tells the story, talk about a west/east split! Unfortunately I'm not aware of any 'official' weather stations in the worst affected Lochaber area that we can get updated online data for in terms of rainfall. Anyone else know?