South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat

[john pike]

hi all

 

only brief tonight

 

and not doing saturday until tomorrow

 

the charts last night for today were pretty poor in my eyes

 

anyway tonight

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

there are still some showers around and it wont be cold

 

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tomorrow

 

 

 

winds westerly and may get a shade blowy tomorrow

 

moreso east coastal regions

 

rain

 

 

after morning drizzle clears it should be dry and we should all see some sun

 

temps

 

 

most coastal regions 15-16 degrees

 

inland 17-19 degrees

 

a local 20 looks possible in sustained sunshine

 

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thursday night

 

 

 

winds lighter but variable

 

rain = none

 

temps

 

 

could feel a lot fresher between 6-9 degrees

 

also watch for mist patches too

 

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friday

 

 

 

winds light south easterly but likely to pick up early afternoon

 

rain

 

 

none

 

temps

 

 

warm

 

anywhere from 19 degrees to a locally 22-23

 

the warmer where you keep the sun

 

cloud might build late pm but other than that a nice day

 

as i said i will update on friday night saturday tomorrow night

 

hope your well

 

john

[Captain Shortwave]

Still potentially looking explosive for Saturday

 

temperatures pushing towards the 80F mark. Very high humidity as well.

 

 

Storm risk still looking very good, even the BBC using the phrase "severe thunderstorms"

 

Interesting times ahead and not long now.

 

Next week looks drier from the models and ensembles..... well for now.

Edited June 4, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[john pike]

sundays fax

 

 

looks dry and sunny

 

temps around 18-20 degrees

 

poss rain late pm

 

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monday

 

 

 

temps up to 25 degrees

 

and

 

 

and some impressive storms likely if these are right

 

loooooooong way off and subject to change though

[lassie23]

Ergh if I hear one more person tell me we are going to have the worst hail storms in 100 years because the express said so.. im going to scream!! Any hoo hey guys and ladies hope everyone is well, weather here is grey,damp and miserable just like my mother in law

That's a bit harsh on the mother in law!

I honestly haven't seen such a bad run of forecasting from the BBC in a while. Today it is supposed to be heavy rain all day and other than a brief couple of light showers this morning, that's been it.

 

Not sure what's going on, it's normally fairly reliable.

Do the BBC get their forecasts from the met office?

[john pike]

heres saturdays chart

 

 

the trough could be lively

 

the cold front incoming looks to be the one to watch

 

promise i will do this tomorrow

[Bluebreezer54]

Currently 8.1c and heavy rain here.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

6.9c here, getting nippy outside 

[lassie23]

Currently 8.1c and heavy rain here.

 

6.9c here, getting nippy outside 

 

Hey bluebreezer, still dry here, I take it your weather is coming my way!

EE, that is cold, 9.4c here

[Daniel*]

Currently 8.1c and heavy rain here.

8.3c here chilly for June, particularly for Central London. Dry now - but not for long according to radar.

[lassie23]

Started raining in NW London now!

[Crepuscular Ray]

 

Do the BBC get their forecasts from the met office?

Yes. The data shown on the maps are direct from MetO computers with no user input, and the national broadcast meteorologists are all MetO employees and liaise directly with the chief forecaster over what nuances they are allowed to put in the bulletins to clarify what is shown in the graphics, i.e. if they think the MetO model might be over or under estimating the chances of something happening or if they think there's a possibility that storms might head farther east/west, that sort of thing. The graphics can't go off message and the forecasters aren't meant to. Did the BBC forecast differ from the MetO model a great deal?

 

The local forecasters are mostly BBC employees and can put their own spin on the forecast a bit more.

 

It's started raining in inner west London, too.

Edited June 4, 2014 by Crepuscular Ray

[lassie23]

Yes. The data shown on the maps are direct from MetO computers with no user input, and the national broadcast meteorologists are all MetO employees and liaise directly with the chief forecaster over what nuances they are allowed to put in the bulletins to clarify the what is shown in the graphics, i.e. if they think the MetO model might be over or under estimating the chances of something happening or if they think there's a possibility that storms might head farther east/west, that sort of thing. The graphics can't go off message and the forecasters aren't meant to. Did the BBC forecast differ from the MetO model a great deal?

 

The local forecasters are mostly BBC employees and can put their own spin on the forecast a bit more.

 

It's started raining in inner west London, too.

Thanks Crepuscular Ray! Well they have the rain for tonight correct then, but if they couldn't forecast a couple of hours a head, then there is no hope for them! Lauren said their forecasts have been off the mark lately!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Liking NMM-18's latest suface cape values for the south east 

 

[stainesbloke]

Some welcome sunshine and large areas of blue sky here this morning, though pretty chilly at 11C currently.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well I wasn't expecting any sun until this afternoon based on the weather forecast. Nice to see that the sun is already out here. Have a great Thursday everyone. 

Also there has been no eastward movement from the models regarding Saturday from this mornings output which is good news.

[poseidon]

Regarding Saturday, Essex weather has the following from the chief forecaster: "Overnight model data somewhat lessens the threat of widespread thunderstorms on Saturday. However, a Met Office severe weather warning remains in force."

[Harps]

Models I've checked are suggesting the front will intensify as it moves northeast over the country so it might not reach its potential until it's already passed us. These situations are always radar/nowcasts though so no point looking into too much detail, part of what makes it so exciting

Back to the present and it's a lovely morning in Essex, still a bit chilly but should warm up quickly in the sun

[Team Jo]

Liking NMM-18's latest suface cape values for the south east 

 

 

 

 

Me too! I think what's important to remember here is that we are looking at the Potential. Certainly to pinpoint where/when at this moment is nigh on impossible, especially since we're speculating over thunderstorms that don't exist yet! I'd feel happier if we'd had had a few more days of warming beforehand, but still, this setup ain't bad for early June!

 

I'm still excited by the opportunity for something to develop, and on a weekend too! Hello UK chasing! (Although my extent of chasing will probably be sitting on the Sea wall sipping a beer, and trying to catch the odd CG on camera while my long suffering OH drives me around...)

[snow raven]

Morning all,

 

A lovely day out there this morning, if a little breezy.  Still, it's nice to see the sun, it really brightens my mood.  Really hoping we are lucky enough to have some storms Saturday, amazingly the models are still looking good for potential anyway, just got to hope we get the right ingredients on the day!

[lassie23]

Me too! I think what's important to remember here is that we are looking at the Potential. Certainly to pinpoint where/when at this moment is nigh on impossible, especially since we're speculating over thunderstorms that don't exist yet! I'd feel happier if we'd had had a few more days of warming beforehand, but still, this setup ain't bad for early June!

 

I'm still excited by the opportunity for something to develop, and on a weekend too! Hello UK chasing! (Although my extent of chasing will probably be sitting on the Sea wall sipping a beer, and trying to catch the odd CG on camera while my long suffering OH drives me around...)

Uk storm chasing compared to the US, must be like chasing drizzle! There was baseball sized hail in Nebraska the other day!

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/04/us/severe-weather/

[Neilsouth]

BBC Forecast just said that the south east may remain dry and humid

[Lauren]

BBC Forecast just said that the south east may remain dry and humid

I will be so mad if that happens.

[saint]

The BBC do a good job, but when it comes to Thundery activity and outbreaks, listen to experienced posters on the forum They can go into much more detail and can provide a better summation of the latest charts.

[saint]

The CAPE values at the moment are looking very good over the South East/East on Saturday.

 

Hopefully we continue to see them in the models tomorrow.

[Heisenberg]

oh i so hope we get something interesting out of this......