South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat

[john pike]

hi all

 

tonight

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

still showers around

 

winds slowly weakening overnight

 

temps around 7-9 degrees

 

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tomorrow

 

 

winds weaker finally on a west-north west flow

 

rainfall

 

starts dry most areas barring the very far south and north east of our region who may have early showers (but look light and patchy)

 

by lunchtime (see trough on fax)

 

 

some heavy showers effecting most but the far south may stay mainly dry

 

by around 8pm

 

still some heavy showers around includes the far south now

 

cape

 

theres is a risk of some afternoon storms

 

however they are patchy and not everyone will see them

 

temps

 

 

around 13-15 degrees and will feel better when out of showers as the wind will be lighter

 

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tomorrow night

 

a weak northerly-north westerly flow

 

rain

 

showers around to the far north of our region

 

also some stubborn showers to the east coast and south coast may take time to clear

 

temps

 

 

not cold but may drop around 6 degrees away from the showers and where skys clear

 

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tuesday

 

a weak north - north west flow

 

rainfall

 

looks a dry start again expect the pesky showers-far south and eastern areas

 

by lunchtime

 

 

again see the trough

 

expect some heavy downpours again effecting the north first but effecting all by mid pm

 

cape

 

 

again we have some cape so there is again a chance of the odd rumble or 2 but will be localised again

 

temps

 

 

around 13-15 again

 

and wont feel too bad again away from the showers

 

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tuesday night

 

a weak southerly-south easterly flow

 

rain=nil

 

temps

 

could drop tonight around 5-7 degrees

 

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wednesday

 

a weak southerly flow

 

rain=nil

 

temps

 

 

the far east and south east around 13-14 degrees

 

elsewhere 15-17 degrees

 

should be nice

 

thats my lot and see you all later

 

john :)

[Flaked Queen]

Lassie don't know if Anyone has done a long range for summer but no disrespect to anyone that has I wouldn't rely on it ... Jp are you back for good ?? Please come back to us

[PiggiePalace]

Yay - thanks Mr P

Nice to see you backLook likes me and the piggies will be able to survive our new boiler installation over the next 48hours without too much trepidation and discomfort.Toddles back to the manic de-cluttering and clearance effort prior to arrival of fitters tomorrow (boiler is being moved from upstairs to downstairs - this is not a simple job!)xxxx

[Jax]

Are we there yet? (still scrolling to the end of the thread )

[lassie23]

Lassie don't know if Anyone has done a long range for summer but no disrespect to anyone that has I wouldn't rely on it ... Jp are you back for good ?? Please come back to us

Yeah! Long range forecast usually go t**s up! 11.9c here, cloudy and breezy !

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Still mainly dry here, had a wander to the next village and back, wish that wind would bugger off though.

Had some nasty showers here, weather station rainfall gauge has broken down, apparently no rain here for 32 days --  whoops, have to get that fixed next weekend

[john pike]

thurs

 

dry and warm

 

cloudcover to be discussed closer to the time

 

15-18 dgrees

 

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friday

 

dry and warm

 

again cloudcover to be worked out closer to time

 

could see a local 22 between 16-20 average :good:

 

sat will call tomorrow

 

off now nite all

[PiggiePalace]

Thanx Mr P - much appreciatedSorry Jax that you have  scrolll finger...I know it can be "reet" painfulxxxx

EEeekkk!OMG - didn;t recognise myself having changed my avi!!!xxxx

[Jax]

Thanx Mr P - much appreciatedSorry Jax that you have  scrolll finger...I know it can be "reet" painfulxxxx

EEeekkk!OMG - didn;t recognise myself having changed my avi!!!xxxx

the do what what now?

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning all. Cloudy start here and quite cool. Would like the cloud to shift to allow some showers to get going.

[Jax]

Morning all

 

feeling a bit blah blah blah this morning, lot planned for the week (relax? hah! I have things I want to do, weather permitting), somehow (and I have no idea how we did it), but have managed to dodge most of the rain in the last few days, wind finally showing signs of abating and it is not as cool it feels warmer anyway.

[Jax]

Well it remains dry and a tad calmer here, whilst not summer it is quite warm, will be signing off for a few days as I work on visiting places and getting some art and reading done (making the most of my few days off work but I will be back later this week), I will pop in from time to time

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

From what was a cloudy start, today is now looking very promising for some potent showers and storms

[Tamara]

It's been a while since I did an outlook summary of the overall model output, so, with some fine weather to look forward to later this week, here is an attempt to try and see how long it may last

 

The current situation sees the low that gave the blustery, cold and unsettled weekend for all of us, edging eastwards into Scandinavia and continuing to fill almost in situ as it is centred over Scandinavia. This slow process means the upper cold pool and lowish heights of pressure combined with very strong late Spring sunshine are the ideal recipe for heavy downpours in our region both today and tomorrow - with the distribution of these determined by factors such as convergence zones which will increasingly arise as the low fills out and winds inland fall much lighter than during the weekend.

 

On this basis perhaps northern and eastern parts of our region to the North of London may see the very heaviest and most prolonged showers today - but they could obviously occur anywhere. Tomorrow, with the low still close enough by and pressure only rising slowly it may be southern and eastern parts of the region that sees the worst of the showers, as winds veer more north westerly (and set up convergence zones close to the south coast) in advance of the ridge slowly coming in from the west later in the day.

 

It is this ridge that builds from the Azores and sets up a nice string of mid latitude high pressure from midweek into the weekend and provides us with increasingly warmer weather, day by day, and with some very pleasant sunshine. Just a few very light showers maybe at first in eastern most areas on Wednesday before the ridge takes complete control for the rest of the week

 

 

On Thursday and Friday as pressure continues to rise strongly and the cool upper temperatures of the first half of the week continue to mix out, we could see temperatures into the low 20s in a few places inland, with sea breezes keeping the coasts a bit cooler in otherwise light and variable winds. The High in complete control by this time

 

 

Its what happens following on from the chart above where the question marks begin. In general surface terms, whatever happens will not affect the continuation of fine and very warm weather continuing for at least the first half of the weekend in our region.

 

However on a macro hemisphere scale, we can see that the pattern is starting to back westwards through the weekend and the models are playing with scenarios that involve a trigger low developing and splitting from upper vorticity over Greenland and this low attempts to leak pressure from the North West over the UK later in the weekend and trying to punch a hole through the middle of the ridging into the start of next week. It is because our region in the UK is furthest away from this process that we are likely to benefit from the fine weather the longest.

 

But how long might the 'longest' be?

 

The conundrum in the models is how far west (or east) this trigger low splits the mid latitude ridge in the vicinity of the UK. Some of the modelling has been to keen to back the pattern far enough west so that the trigger low becomes cut off from the jetstream well to the west of the UK. This means that pressure stays higher over the east and south of the UK for a further period and unsettled conditions affect northern and western parts of the UK. So for us in our region this scenario would mean a developing south easterly airstream into next week which would make the weather increasingly humid with very warm hazy sunshine and with the risk perhaps of mid level instability arising to bring a few thundery showers as pressure falls away

 

The GEM model currently represents the most westward solution of all the modelling and reflects the type of surface conditions as described above

 

 

On the other hand, modelling such as the GFS represents the opposite extreme solution and places the trough much further east right over the UK with a cyclonic showery and much cooler regime for all of us here in the south and the breakdown happening faster as the weekend closes

 

 

So is the truth (as often is the case) in these situations and differences perhaps somewhere in the middle?

 

Well, in this respect the European models maybe offer some support with the trough being cut off just to the North West of the British Isles and perhaps sinking southwards close to Irish and western coasts. The ECM operational below is indicative of this solution and suggests a greater emphasis on showery weather than the GEM - especially the further west into central southern parts one lives. This scenario would be warmer and relatively less unsettled for our region than the GFS with its southerly drift from France, but would not be as warm as the GEM solution and showers more likely especially the western extents of central southern parts of our region

 

 

All the suggestions on offer however are underpinned by the overall trend in the last day or two to back the pattern further west - the GFS is well known for having too much of an easterly bias with the jet stream, whilst on the hand the ECM model is prone to over amplify the jet stream further out and this also affects the position and latitude of pressure systems accordingly.

 

The EPS ECM ensemble member maps give a good guide out as far as they go (to day 5) to support the initial westward shift in the pattern with the trigger low poised to leak pressure from the NW.  As we can see, for our part of the world this virtually guarantees fine weather till this time at the least.

 

 

It remains to be seen how fast and how far west this attempted breakdown occurs - but I think our region stands the best chance of holding onto the fine weather longest, and if the more westerly backed solutions occur with the trigger low despatched further into the atlantic - then eastern most parts of the region especially could keep warm and relatively fine weather lasting through the first part of next week.

 

Subject to change as always, but my own provisional and cautious suggestion is that the coming day or two could conceivably see this westward trend become more uniform and gain consensus and therefore a reasonable chance that the whole weekend stays dry and fine for most of us and although we are susceptible to less settled weather thereafter as the trigger low drifts south, we stand a decent enough chance this may be far enough west of our region to keep some reasonable temperature levels

 

Edit: The updated METO forecast supports the breakdown from the NW later in the weekend, but as suggested above and echoed in this particular forecast, it could well be that eastern most parts of the region especially see the best of drier and warmer weather with the interpretation that the cut off low is suggested to be close to western UK

Edited May 12, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Tom Jarvis]

Finally got some nice cells heading towards me

[legrandefromage]

showery in a showery type way that only April can provide.

 

Looking forward to some decent settled weather later in the week for mor cycling

 

Forest of Dean was wet and slippery at the weekend

[egret]

Excellent summary Tamara and clearly explained, thanks! (heading off over to France for a break in a couple of weeks so hoping to acclimatise to some warmer weather beforehand)

 

Have had several short sharp showers this morning and the last one had hail, one flash of lightning and three long rumbles of thunder - so that one will be heading your way from us on the 'sw border'

[Tom Jarvis]

Any webcams pointing out to sea in Brighton there could be a waterspout on the cell just off the coast

[Tom Quintavalle]

Living a charmed life at the moment, here in Croydon, between bands of showers to our north and south.

Sorry storm junkies but long may it continue here but enjoy the flashes and bangs, if you do get them.

Great post Tams and really looking forward to my day off, later in the week with a lovely walk planned, so that forecast, should it come to fruition, would be ideal.

Tom.

[legrandefromage]

ooh lightening coming nearer on the radar.

 

looking forward to that

[A.J]

a couple of sharp showers around an hour or so ago, now back to azure blue skies and feeling quite warm in the sun....more showers developing though to the west

[NO LONGER POSTING]

We need to look around the Oxford area for anything to hit us in the South east (West London, London area) sme big old clouds going up now here we deffo have had the best lengths of sunshine in the whole country today so the ground is warm, unstable atmosphere cape at around 400kj -1 LI heres hoping! 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

cell firing just outside reading 

 

 

This.. would be a gift from god..

Edited May 12, 2014 by Surrey

[NO LONGER POSTING]

WE HAVE LIFT OFF! North London!

 

MASSIVE! Columbus cloud heading my way too! Watching it out the office window go up likw a atomic bomb mushroom#!

[anything-but]

Some impressively dark sky above me at home right now.. I'll post a pic shortly.