Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards

[Neilsouth]

Another big cell going up south west of whistable

[Panayiotis]

Apart from the places seeing convergence leading to thundery showers in Southern England, the GFS is also showing converging winds in these areas, its one to watch over the next hour or so...

Edited April 29, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Mesoscale]

Havent heard a single crack of thunder for a few months now!! Getting storm starved over here..

[Eye to the sky]

Starting to look interesting here now very dark clouds building from the Se.A really humid feel here too.How far north are these showers/storms likely to get?!.

[Evening thunder]

Funnel cloud? 

 

Taken several mins ago to the north, on the edge of a shower which presumably marks the sea breeze convergence, lasted 2-3 mins at a guess.

 

 

Edit to add: My location is still in East Devon a few miles south of Ottery St Mary (am gunna be leaving to head back to uni soon though)

Edited April 29, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Lewesdon]

Funnel cloud? 

 

Taken several mins ago to the north, on the edge of a shower which presumably marks the sea breeze convergence, lasted 2-3 mins at a guess.

 

http:////forum.netweather.tv/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifIMG_1347.JPGhttp:////forum.netweather.tv/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifIMG_1348.JPG

 

Edit to add: My location is still in East Devon a few miles south of Ottery St Mary (am gunna be leaving to head back to uni soon though)

I saw it from Beaminster when picking the kids up from school. It was off to the west so in your general direction.

[tcc]

Looks very dark to my west from Crawley, we've only had a quick hail shower around 2pm, everything else has developed after it left here!

[NL]

Funnel cloud? 

 

Taken several mins ago to the north, on the edge of a shower which presumably marks the sea breeze convergence, lasted 2-3 mins at a guess.

 

http:////forum.netweather.tv/public/style_images/master/attachicon.gifIMG_1347.JPGhttp:////forum.netweather.tv/public/style_images/master/attachicon.gifIMG_1348.JPG

 

Edit to add: My location is still in East Devon a few miles south of Ottery St Mary (am gunna be leaving to head back to uni soon though)

Nice catch ET not easy to observe as you said only lasting a few minutes. Looking well defined on the 2nd photo. Should send a report to ESTOFEX,TORRO.

[Mokidugway]

Apart from the places seeing convergence leading to thundery showers in Southern England, the GFS is also showing converging winds in these areas, its one to watch over the next hour or so...

large congested cumulus over lake district fells now !!!.....

[Dale Hay]

Funnel cloud? 

 

Taken several mins ago to the north, on the edge of a shower which presumably marks the sea breeze convergence, lasted 2-3 mins at a guess.

 

IMG_1347.JPGIMG_1348.JPG

 

Edit to add: My location is still in East Devon a few miles south of Ottery St Mary (am gunna be leaving to head back to uni soon though)

Awesome pics!

I'd definitely warrant that a FC. Nice one!

[Mapantz]

http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/three-men-struck-lightning-camberley-7048935

[Daniel*]

A collection of recent snaps

Quite impressive Cloudscapes Hope there is better to come throughout the year I reckon this year is going to be a good one for torrential downpours and frequent CG lightning, just a hunch.

It did not deliver the goods, we did not have the heat to spark of some intense Storms!

ATM: Boring Stratus - all action skirting London

Edited April 29, 2014 by Daniel*

[Tom Jarvis]

Dam storms forming to the west nothing to my east want to chase them but non of them r nearby ggggrrrrrr

[poseidon]

Had a good view on my way home, like yesterday, of the convergence zone. Noticed one big anvil and next to that a cell that looked like an explosion, and was even taller. Not sure what exact location they would be in though.

[gottolovethisweather]

http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/three-men-struck-lightning-camberley-7048935

 

Crikey.

[Raidan]

Been a mostly lovely day here sun out most of the time.lots of convection about but in the last half hour sun has disappeared behind a blanket of grey cloud.haven't had any rain today and if I'm honest I'm not expecting anything thundery.would be nice but overall I don't think it will happen.

[Convective]

Some huge, huge towers about 10 miles west of here about 4pm. Nothing from it though. Will try and upload some snaps soon

[Chris.R]

An interesting forecast by the Met office tonight for tomorrow. 

 

"Wednesday:

Early fog patches will clear to reveal some sunny spells across the area. However, scattered slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon, especially in the north. Maximum temperature 18 °C."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_weather.html

No surface based CAPE and LI forecast though that I can see, so I'm guessing its elevated stuff we're looking out for, or some kind of forcing trigger from the Cold front. Can anyone confirm? Meanwhile, I will take a look at the TAFs. 

[timeless]

was looking at the "will it thunder page" along with the "storm forecast" page which suggests that there is 0% chance of storms on thursday (in hereford), been looking at other pages as well which suggest possibilities are moving further east, was just curious if that was the case.

Edited April 29, 2014 by timeless

[Chris.R]

was looking at the "will it thunder page" along with the "storm forecast" page which suggests that there is 0% chance of storms on thursday (in hereford), been looking at other pages as well which suggest possibilities are moving further east, was just curious if that was the case.

 

Remember that the storm forecast page will only show a storm risk if there is precipitation projected to be falling at that time. Just look at the CAPE and LI figures, as the storm risk is calculated using these anyway. I think these are only surface based though, hence my earlier point.

[timeless]

thats what makes me curious, because over the past week or so there has been at least some percentage noted despite most being surface based. that being said the lifted index/cape/etc may have been recorded differently.

[Supacell]

An interesting forecast by the Met office tonight for tomorrow. 

 

"Wednesday:

Early fog patches will clear to reveal some sunny spells across the area. However, scattered slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon, especially in the north. Maximum temperature 18 °C."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_weather.html

No surface based CAPE and LI forecast though that I can see, so I'm guessing its elevated stuff we're looking out for, or some kind of forcing trigger from the Cold front. Can anyone confirm? Meanwhile, I will take a look at the TAFs. 

 

Looking at the charts there does look to be some CAPE around, perhaps more so inland in areas bordering the Pennines. Nothing spectacular but enough to bring about a risk of thunderstorms.

 

 

When you then add to that the numerous convergence zones you then increase the risk, with areas along these zones being at the greatest risk (these zones are subject to some revision so I wouldn't take at face value).

 

 

There is very little shear so organised storms or severe weather would seem unlikely but showers and storms may continue to erupt in similar areas through the day and be slow moving and so localised flooding a possibility.

 

EDIT: WRF has the higher CAPE extending slightly further west than GFS with around 300-500j/kg by late afternoon.

Edited April 29, 2014 by Supacell

[Mokidugway]

I have a feeling there will be a little to much cloud about for anything to get going tomorrow , hope I'm wrong though !!....

[Chris K]

Perhaps a daft question, but can someone explain what to look for with regards to the amount of shear to help me improve my learning on how to forecast where storms may develop?

I do have access to charts that show LLS(low level shear 0-1km and also DLS(Deep level shear 0-6km). Which is used more commonly in terms of forecasting organised storms? Or is it both?

[timeless]

its kinda weird, l dont see any clouds in the immediate vicinity.. havent seen any flashes but lm hearing thunder like sounds close by. wondering what is causing them as there have been quite a few of them l cant explain as aircraft.