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Summer 2014 thread

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For those who still refuse to give the second half of June a chance, read this. It's a messy picture, but I'll try to describe what's going on with the GFS here.

 

TUESDAY 10 JUNE - A trough of low pressure bringing cool and unsettled weather will begin to recede away. This will allow the Azores High and the Scandinavian High to be drawn towards each other.

 

WEDNESDAY 11 JUNE - A ridge will form over the UK with the rest of the North Atlantic being littered with high pressure areas. The low that was affecting us will now be absorbed by a deep low over Eastern Canada.

 

THURSDAY 12 JUNE - A new area of low pressure will detach from a low over Africa. This will move northwards towards the UK, but will be kept at bay by the Scandinavian High, that has now moved just to the north of Scotland.

 

FRIDAY 13 JUNE - The low will now move back southwards towards the low over Africa and will be partially reabsorbed by it, leaving a weak trough just to the west of the UK. The high to the north of us though will now begin ridge southwards towards the UK, as well as into Central and Eastern Europe. This will setup a strong easterly wind.

 

SATURDAY 14 JUNE - This day just shows the high take a stronger grip on us really. The easterly wind will drag in some very warm air off of the continent, which will be helped along by a low over Southern Europe.

 

 

I sincerely hope that this is a sign of things to come, but unfortunately it's a long way off and like many times recently is very likely to change rapidly.  It's very annoying looking at these models. There is substantial warmth both to the south and east of us but the trough of low is stopping it from taking hold. 

 

The ECM and GFS are every contradictory of each other, with the ECM showing a picture of the next week to continue for some time. And despite my relative inexperience, I know the ECM is more reliable at long range. 

 

I think we'll see some warm an dry periods this month of a day or two interspersed with wet and cloudy ones. I think the best chance we have of a substantial settled and warm/hot period is towards the end of the month. 

 

Going off the models alone and instinct, most are touting August as our best chance of hot weather. 

 

Still, I hope that the above forecast is correct and we see some very warm and settled weather in the second/third week of June. I want hot weather this month more than in any other. Longest days and World Cup and all that jazz.  

Edited by matty007
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Problem is, we are looking at the GFS at day 10 and beyond - and as was shown recently, it has a 0.3 mark in terms of verifying - while the ECM ens have a 0.6 chance by day 10. GFS out to day 5, grand! After that... its flying darts. GFS 6z has just rolled, and I can't say FI looks all that healthy. Then again, just another dart.

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Going off the models alone and instinct, most are touting August as our best chance of hot weather. 

 

 

 

the ironic part is that August was progged to be the wettest and most unsettled by the latest Long range model suites. June was supposedly the best looking month of summer. C'est la vie!

Edited by draztik
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the ironic part is that August was progged to be the wettest and most unsettled by the latest Long range model suites. June was supposedly the best looking month of summer. C'est la vie!

 

 

Yeah I'm just going by what others are saying, e.g Roger Smith. He was bang on last year for the July forecast and most of the summer. I've heard a few others mention it, but of course two months is a LONG way off and virtual guesswork and intuition. Nevertheless they're much more competent with the models than myself, I'm OK with short range and a little further but past that I'm lost.

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Yeah I'm just going by what others are saying, e.g Roger Smith. He was bang on last year for the July forecast and most of the summer. I've heard a few others mention it, but of course two months is a LONG way off and virtual guesswork and intuition. Nevertheless they're much more competent with the models than myself, I'm OK with short range and a little further but past that I'm lost.

 

lol Join the club... id be a very poor man if I bet on the weather! I am by no means a hot weather fan, but this current setup does not appeal to me either. The ecm ens are continuing to show a settling outlook into days 10-15, so there is hope we may see a more stable period into June. At least, that's the hope :)

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lol Join the club... id be a very poor man if I bet on the weather! I am by no means a hot weather fan, but this current setup does not appeal to me either. The ecm ens are continuing to show a settling outlook into days 10-15, so there is hope we may see a more stable period into June. At least, that's the hope :)

 

 

Haha same here. 

 

Yeah I'm pretty sure we'll get some warm, dry and maybe hot weather this month like we have for the last couple of months. I certainty don't think it'll be the washout or squib that some reckon it will be. It'll be another above average month like the last 10-11. It's just whether or not we'll get some sustained heat and sun. It's certainly possible with the heat around us, just need the stubborn lows to bog off. 

 

Way too early to write anything off. Even though tomorrow is technically the start of Summer, I don't consider it so, unless we get some proper warmth. Seasons don't follow the calendar. Not proper Summer until the middle of the month+ for me. 

 

Anything can happen. Pretty sure people didn't see July last year happening after the largely disappointing May and June. 

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Already looking forward to the Autumn 2014 thread ;),,,,, if the past week is what's on offer this summer it can bugger off, mild, stagnant and cloudy is no good to anyone, at least autumn offers some interesting contrasts.

Edited by Eugene
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TWO summer forecast issued

 

Summer 2014: Warmish but wet

 

Overview

 

Warmer than average but with the risk of heavy rainfall, especially in the south. August is favoured to bring the most settled conditions in the south, July possibly the best month in the north. 

Temperature
 
A warmer than average summer is expected. The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is expected to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average.  
 

Precipitation

 

A slightly wetter than average summer is considered most likely, but regional rainfall could vary considerably and confidence is very low. Over the three month period precipitation levels are expected to be between 90% to 115% of the average.

 

Full forecast here: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

 

From the TWO twitter page

 

This won't be in the UK TWO summer forecast today, but based on it a top temperature of close to 35C (95F) is thought possible this summer.

Edited by Summer Sun

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I think the Autumn thread will be interesting to read, but Autumn in general is just a horrible, horrible season. The only decent month is September and the rest of it is just wet, windy and unsettled. It's too cold and dark to enjoy the sun and warmth anymore and it's too mild for snow. I hate it, it's just a terrible season.

 

 

I don't even really think of September as a Autumn month anyway. Very rarely do you get Autumnal weather in September. Granted it's usually not as warm as July/August but the heat is roughly equal to June and the nights are still fairly lengthy. Even the trees aren't shedding leaves in September. 

 

September to me is a Summer month. 

Edited by matty007
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I don't even really think of September as a Autumn month anyway. Very rarely do you get Autumnal weather in September. Granted it's usually not as warm as July/August but the heat is roughly equal to June and the nights are still fairly lengthy. Even the trees aren't shedding leaves in September. 

 

September to me is a Summer month. 

 

I remember a few years back we had a washout summer then come September bang the heat arrived think it got very close to 30c in the south

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I would actually say in probably more than half of years, September is more summery than August is.

Maybe we have been blessed with a few good Septembers in these years of poor summers but certainly looking back September was a notably colder and unsettled month and august a much better one than of late in the main!!!

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The met office / BBC weather are also going with southerly winds for next Saturday the temperature range is 17c to 28c for London which goes with what ECM is showing this evening

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

An interesting few days ahead for sure with the first plume (potentially thundery) of the season possibly just a week away

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The perception of September often being more summery than August is definitely down to frequent cloudy wet Augusts and warm dry sunny spells in early to mid September in recent years.  In the 1990s it was often the other way around- I was going to school in the Tyne and Wear area during that decade and the return of school often coincided with a breakdown from relatively "summery" conditions to grey damp conditions.

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I would actually say in probably more than half of years, September is more summery than August is.

 

Definitely. Pretty much every September recently aside from last year has been more settled and often warmer than the August. August tends to be an all or nothing month, either a mild washout or warm and thundery. 

 

In contrast, September tends to be a fairly dry and sunny month with a short heatwave typical.  

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Not Summer until we see 22c plus for me haha.

 

But my favourite month of the year has arrived so yipeee.  Please my dear bring me some warm/hot settled weather.

Edited by matty007

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Tne GFS is looking very encouraging after June 9. A bit of a way out, but still interesting.

 

Yes very encouraging. I'm sure we'll see some warm/hot spells this month. It's only a matter of time before those low's weaken and the warm air moves in. Will be another above average month. 

 

I predicted a CET of 16.1. Probably a bit optimistic due to my love of June, will probably settle around 15.5ish. 

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I predicted 15.8 at first, but then revised to 15.3 earlier this evening, I kind of regret doing that now after looking at the GFS. I mean it's still a long way out, but Friday 13 June, you'd be looking at the low to maybe even mid-thirties in the South. Please don't change!

 

Shhhhhh. Don't jinx it lol. 

 

Certainly upper twenties I'd say. 

 

A lot of warmth to the east and south, if that comes are way and introduces high pressure we could be in for a very nice spell indeed. 

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The good thing is though, the GFS has been hinting at the Azores High rising northwards towards the UK around June 10-12 for a good four or five days or so now. It's certainly very encouraging, but I'm just praying that I haven't jinxed it. Still even I have, we've still got plenty of time, after all it's only been summer for 82 minutes! (as of me typing this)

 

Well, I'm off to bed. In the morning I can enjoy the first day of summer! Can't wait!

 

Indeed. 

 

Night mate. 

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What a stunning day to start of summer. I was driving along last night at about 8pm and just had to stop and get out the car to take in the atmosphere with a misty haze over the fields. Late May/early June is such a special time of year with the lush greenery. Shame its going to go downhill for a while but there has been an improvement in the models for prospects towards next weekend. Not going to be settled nationwide, far from it, but temperatures will be back on the up. The ECM mean just out looks very nice with low pressure in the Atlantic helping to feed up high pressure from the south later on. A June like 2003 doesnt seem too far off the mark at this stage. Warm and wet to start with, then becoming drier.

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This is the way I think June will go:

 

A bit of a disappointing first week with low pressure feeding in rain and fairly cool winds. The second week will then turn more changeable as low pressure pulls away slightly and high pressure begins to move closer to the UK. Still not very settled, but warmer with longer sunny spells. I think the third week will be the best week with high pressure mostly, or fully in control of our weather. Obviously this means that this week will be very warm with almost perfect sunshine. This is good because we take the advantage out of the sun at the solstice. Fourth week is really anyone's guess.

Am not sure wether there is any science to this but I was brought up as a farmer and am 46 years old but in my childhood and up to the late 90s it was truly amazing how we started haymaking in the last week of june almost like clockwork at least 8 out of 10 times,that does not seem to be the case these days!!!

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I predicted 15.8 at first, but then revised to 15.3 earlier this evening, I kind of regret doing that now after looking at the GFS. I mean it's still a long way out, but Friday 13 June, you'd be looking at the low to maybe even mid-thirties in the South. Please don't change!

 

It will be very exciting if those models come off for the 13th of June...since its the only day in the whole of meteorological Summer that has never NEVER recorded a maximum temperature of above 30C anywhere in the UK. Which is pretty freaky when you think that there are plenty of days in both May and September that have reached this mark.

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Next weekend looks promising for heat. With both the ECM and GFS singing on the same sheet. BBC and Netweather ranging from 18c to 33c max lol. 

 

13th onwards looks very nice too with a lot of heat possible but it's still a long way out. And I'd be inclined to believe the ECM at that distance. 

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