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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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PersianPaladin Aficionado

PersianPaladin

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Posted (edited)

Here's the lake district forecast by the Met Office for today:-

 

 

Monday 18th August

It will be mostly dry with variable amounts of cloud, there may be some light rain showers on the central fells in the early morning though. These conditions are then expected to remain for most of the day. However there is a chance for some isolated showers in the afternoon, which are most likely to be on eastern fells. There will be some pleasant sunshine too though, although it will feel rather cool for the time of year.

 

 

 

Now, go and have a look at the rainfall radar from 10am onwards for the park. Talk about epic fail...... :wallbash:

Edited by PersianPaladin
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

mmmmmm...... that's a paradox.  How do I now like your post??

 

ha ha!....i guess you can 'like' it if you agree with the content, as far as im aware im far from popular enough to have 'fans' , so any 'likes' i assume to be ones of genuine agreement.

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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

biting my tongue ... contradictory posts being made on the md thread, earlier predictions/insistances proven wrong, yet the brown nosers ignore.high time the 'like up' feature was dropped. its meaningless, most of the time they dont reflect the quality of the post but are a vote by 'fans of' for their chosen hero, even though the boards heros are often inaccurate/wrong. its a pointless feature that does nothing but serve to massage the egos of those courting popularity.

 

 

ill get my coat....

 

True, this cliqueiness harms the MOD thread. In summer, heat and sun is good and it's coming. In winter, cold and snow is good and it's coming. If you post anything outside this narrative, then good luck!

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

ha ha!....i guess you can 'like' it if you agree with the content, as far as im aware im far from popular enough to have 'fans' , so any 'likes' i assume to be ones of genuine agreement.

 

You assumed correctly in my case.

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

I love this fresh cool weather. you can get plenty of work done without the hindrance of heat. This weather is a bonus for me, although for holiday makers its not so good! Looking forward to an early Autumn ,my favourite season.... :good:  :rolleyes:  :good:

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

I love this fresh cool weather. you can get plenty of work done without the hindrance of heat. This weather is a bonus for me, although for holiday makers its not so good! Looking forward to an early Autumn ,my favourite season.... :good:  :rolleyes:  :good:

I think that is the first time I have ever seen your posts contain happy emoticons rather than  :closedeyes: all the time! Lol.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

I love this fresh cool weather. you can get plenty of work done without the hindrance of heat. This weather is a bonus for me, although for holiday makers its not so good! Looking forward to an early Autumn ,my favourite season.... :good:  :rolleyes:  :good:

Autumn  :closedeyes:  :closedeyes:  :nonono:

Posted Image

 

:rofl:

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

Wow, it really does feel Autumnal! Currently just 15C here, 3 miles from Heathrow, yuck. Went to a festival over the weekend and camped for 3 nights, can honestly say that Sun night especially was just freezing, absolutely ghastly for mid Aug. Models offering scant opportunities for warmth in the foreseeable, either. June and July may have been very nice here but Aug is ruining all that lol. Perhaps some Sep warmth to come?

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Author
Posted

I have moved the last few posts to the Summer 2014 thread here

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79920-summer-2014-thread/

 

where they should have gone in the first place.

 

Some general chat is ok but please try and keep your views in here loosely based around the charts -the clue is in the thread title.

 

Thanks all. :)

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

Autumn is well and truly here now in my books, by the looks of these charts. Summer may have a brief comeback between now and the end of September, but brief is the keyword.

 

This is not necessarily the case, it's still early enough for a complete turnaround and temperatures into the 20s for an extended period. 2006 had an August not too dissimilar to this and the following September was exceptionally warm with summery temperatures.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

This is not necessarily the case, it's still early enough for a complete turnaround and temperatures into the 20s for an extended period. 2006 had an August not too dissimilar to this and the following September was exceptionally warm with summery temperatures.

 

Indeed I remember a few years back when temperatures were getting close to 30c in late September and the opening few days of October, given the right setup we still have ample time yet for warmth

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Indeed I remember a few years back when temperatures were getting close to 30c in late September and the opening few days of October, given the right setup we still have ample time yet for warmth

 

late warmth though is like late snow... hardly worth it.

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

late warmth though is like late snow... hardly worth it.

 

If you're talking late September/early October I kind of get your point, but the first 10 days of September seem quite summery to me if we get a hot spell then. 

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hec1 Contributor

hec1

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, snow
  • Location: Glasgow
Posted

lol the summer lovers will be angry now that summer is well and truly over, here comes the best weather; atlantic storms, then heavy disruptive snowfall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :bomb: :bomb: :bomb: :bomb:

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Haha, the models are just unforgivable, especially the GFS - perfect high pressure showing for at least 3-5 days at the start of September - a chart we've been after throughout the whole of August. The jet stream often kicks into gear big time in September but with the jet supposed to be still north of the UK for a time, that might aid high pressure being sucked in underneath to the UK. As sod's law as that would be after August, I would think September would continue much in the same vein as August as patterns over the last year have tended to last 2-3 months each. 

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Well the temps today have been up and down like a fiddlers elbow, cold in the rain showers, feeling very warm in the sunshine, more like Spring than late summer... :good:  :give_rose:  :rolleyes:

post-6830-0-24135100-1408475153.gif

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

It's so tempting to take a journey towards GFS's Fantasy Island, take out this Summery chart, and then swap it for the one it currently shows for Bank Holiday Monday.

post-10703-0-41095200-1408483421_thumb.jpost-10703-0-87918500-1408483449_thumb.j

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Thermohaline Conveyor Apprentice

Thermohaline Conveyor

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

It's so tempting to take a journey towards GFS's Fantasy Island, take out this Summery chart, and then swap it for the one it currently shows for Bank Holiday Monday.

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifimage.jpghttp:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Would be lovely.  In reality the Westerly zonal flow may well deviate slightly.  Something more along the lines of the AzH ridge building into South/South West England and across much of England and Wales leaving Scotland in a marginally more unsettled flow.  Shift the baroclinic region on the above chart 150 miles South and the high pressure South East and that will be more realistic.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

If you're talking late September/early October I kind of get your point, but the first 10 days of September seem quite summery to me if we get a hot spell then. 

 

nah mate, ive highlighted here many times what 'summer' is to me, and all the other componants are all but gone. heat now would be nice, true, but the feel of summer has gone. or for the pedants, early/mid summer.

 

lol the summer lovers will be angry now that summer is well and truly over, here comes the best weather; atlantic storms, then heavy disruptive snowfall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :bomb: :bomb: :bomb: :bomb:

 

ridiculous comment. if any 'summer lover' gets angry at the inevitable passing of the season then they need to grow up.

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

Don't mind Autumn as long as it isn't just endless wind and rain...so tedious. Some storms are ok but some sunny days, frosty and foggy nights would be very welcome....after September. Not ready to say goodbye to shorts and t shirts just yet! At least models are hinting at some late summer/early autumn warmth.

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

There looks to be a steady rise in temperatures over the next 10 days as we finally say goodbye to this northerly. But it will be taken over by a more Atlantic driven set up. But temperatures should recover back to nearer average associated with the change in wind direction.

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draztik Rising Star

draztik

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

There looks to be a steady rise in temperatures over the next 10 days as we finally say goodbye to this northerly. But it will be taken over by a more Atlantic driven set up. But temperatures should recover back to nearer average associated with the change in wind direction.

Ecm will be leading some folk up the garden path this evening. At least for 12 hours anyway.
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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted

Some mesmerising high lat blocking on the 06z. Almost a Murr sausage.

 

Posted Image

 

 

Pretty startling 850 temp gradient down towards Mongolia too:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Fortunately - volcanoes permitting - I'm off to Menorca tomorrow where the 20C+ isotherm is never far away. If the Summer won't come to me, I'll go to the Summer. 8)

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