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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Yes far far from dire, Average here for the Midlands so far.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Dire this morning in Chellaston Mushy?

 

 

absolutely not!but all the models and the met men on the bbc said that front would move in from the east, 'pepping up' over the east midlands. so my comment you highlighted was completely in line with what the models were showing ande the experts were predicting. (in other words it wasnt one of my dubious rants! :p lol)

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted (edited)

Been a pretty dire summer so far in the east midlands to be honest.  Just lots of cloudy days with hardly any days with unbroken sunshine as yet.  normally it is the western side of the country and wales which gets the more unsettled weather but this year it seems to be getting all the good weather while the eastern side gets the cloud and cool temperatures.  I hope the remainder of this summer improves for us in the east as the thought of a mundane summer followed by a non descript winter fills me with dread.

Northampton must be a million miles from Rugby and Coventry then  where by all accounts its been a pretty reasonable Summer to date!

absolutely not!but all the models and the met men on the bbc said that front would move in from the east, 'pepping up' over the east midlands. so my comment you highlighted was completely in line with what the models were showing ande the experts were predicting. (in other words it wasnt one of my dubious rants! :p lol)

Goes to show don't trust the precip modelling!

Edited by TonyH
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

The word dire gets flouted around way too much to be honest.

 

Now having persistent rain all day and a high of just 14C. Now that is dire  :doh:

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Especially when 50 miles away its warm and sunny 

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

i dont view the precip charts tony.... i look at the synoptic charts and watch the bbc weather forecasters. both the charts and the bbc met men told us it would be wet here today as that front drifts in from the east. this morning the telly men were making apologies as the front has stalled over eastern ares. btw, have you seen the precip radar? theres loads of rain to my east!im glad it stalled, im glad that both my expectations and the met mens were wrong. ive had a splendid day when i was expecting rain.

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

i dont view the precip charts tony.... i look at the synoptic charts and watch the bbc weather forecasters. both the charts and the bbc met men told us it would be wet here today as that front drifts in from the east. this morning the telly men were making apologies as the front has stalled over eastern ares. btw, have you seen the precip radar? theres loads of rain to my east!im glad it stalled, im glad that both my expectations and the met mens were wrong. ive had a splendid day when i was expecting rain.

Do I breathe oxygen :rofl:

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SLAMMER Enthusiast

SLAMMER

Posted
  • Location: Llandrindod Wells, Powys
  • Location: Llandrindod Wells, Powys
Posted

we've had a pretty decent summer so far.

 

maybe four or five rainy days in the last 3 months.

 

still 22 degrees and clear blue skies in my garden.

 

we've had far far worse.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

awful charts showing for tues to fri next week, GFS even goes for 31C on friday in SE, can believe it of setup, ECMWF not much different

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

awful charts showing for tues to fri next week, GFS even goes for 31C on friday in SE, can believe it of setup, ECMWF not much different

Lovely, how summer should be hehe, we get cold cloudy crap enough of the year thanks.
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snow freak Aficionado

snow freak

Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
Posted

In the east of the country this summer is turning into something i would rather forget.  cloudy skies mostly and nothing to get excited about in a summer.  Oh and it's raining again this morning.  arghh!!

Lovely day at the cricket in Nottingham! The word 'dire' is highly overused on these forums!

not if you're unlucky enough to be living in one of this summer's 'dire' spots.

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snow freak Aficionado

snow freak

Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
Posted

Northampton must be a million miles from Rugby and Coventry then  where by all accounts its been a pretty reasonable Summer to date!

Goes to show don't trust the precip modelling!

obviously Northampton is not that far from Rugby and Coventry, however any fronts that have brought cloud and rain seem to have halted over northampton so any place further west (ie. coventry and rugby) have seen fine weather whereas northampton hasn't.  i'm glad you have been lucky enough to get the fine weather.  Northampton always seems to get the crap of whatever weather is going.

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

As long as it's dry and warm/hot between 23rd and 30th July when I have Spanish guests staying, I don't mind what the weather does the rest of the time. The models are showing some cracking summer charts for next week however. All Atlantic dross is still in FI.

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Mokidugway Maestro

Mokidugway

Posted
Posted (edited)

As long as it's dry and warm/hot between 23rd and 30th July when I have Spanish guests staying, I don't mind what the weather does the rest of the time. The models are showing some cracking summer charts for next week however. All Atlantic dross is still in FI.

not mr and mrs plumez I wonder !!!.... Edited by Mokidugway
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

can a mod please transfer this post to the ramps/moans thread please as it needs addressing but is not directly model related. thanks.

 

I sincerely hope it comes off Gavin if only to silence those who constantly bemoan this a poor Summer!

 

 

whos done that then?...maybe people on the north sea coast or near it, who havnt had the sun/temps others have. the point being that not everywhere has enjoyed the largely dry, largely sunnier periods other areas have. earlier, some of were stuck under a stationary front, it was cold and wet for several days. others had cheshire gap streamers whilst 'darn sarf' it was sunny and warm.to some people it has been a poor summer so far, and if not having a hot spell counts then many of us so far have missed out.  still not had a 25c here which by that stat can be construed as a poor summer..next week?.... hmm... ill believe it when it happens but it was supposed to start on wednesday, with models showing high pressure building...the latest today suggests the real heat wont be here until thursday. it could well end up being a complete let down, a 24-48 hour plume, but even so, i reckon its looking not like a clear blue sky sunny affair, but a muggy, overcast / bright / milky skied affair.

 

and for the record, ive posted that im happy with average, all im looking for is the icing on the cake, a decent hot spell or three. not a 76, but some decent heat amongst the ever changing weather we enjoy. im guilty of being overly pessimistic, when the models suggest dire weather, fortunately so far the worst case scenarios havnt become reality.... but neither have the hot spells that have been suggested many times in fi.

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

A nice bit of heat showing up on the models. Thats what this summer has been missing so far so its nice to finally get something proper summery. After yesterdays deluge here its nice to see better things around the corner.

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

not mr and mrs plumez I wonder !!!....

 

Haha, I certainly wouldn't mind that. A 23rd-30th July like 1995 would go down just a treat! I'm holding on to the fact that the Atlantic hardly ever moves in at the end of July, it's not a typical weather pattern. Hopefully the models will change their outlook with time.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted (edited)

i wonder if those of you suggesting us heat lovers should be happy or content with 'average' (which is about what were having) would do the same in winter when all the hoards of snow lovers come out of hibernation?no...thought not

Edited by mushymanrob
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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted (edited)

Mushy it has not been average! Central and western UK, and no doubts parts of the east, have been warmer, sunnier and drier than average so far this Summer, and judging by the models things will only go more this way in the coming week or so.

Edited by TonyH
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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

My only gripe with the models at the moment and the weather since late June is that the best conditions never seem to be at the weekends. Once again, it looks like the breakdown of this upcoming heatwave will happen on Friday night into Saturday ( that is of course if the heatwave materialises and/or the breakdown does happen!)

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Mushy it has not been average! Central and western UK, and no doubts parts of the east, have been warmer, sunnier and drier than average so far this Summer, and judging by the models things will only go more this way in the coming week or so.

it is within the average/normal area though tony, and im here in the east mids often plagued by north sea cloud. of course some areas have had it great, esp in the west, but we have still not had a 25c (although that could be reached in the next hour or so).as a heat lover ive only had a few very nice days here and there so far..... so my post stands, would snow lovers be content with an average, or near average winter? of course they wouldnt and i wouldnt blame them either despite my dislike of cold.
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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted

Ok - so to those who like it hot, what do you enjoyed about baking temperatures of 30C+?

I can't think of anything more uncomfortable.

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