Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[hec1]

lol its been settled for weeks and some people still arent happy

[Paul_1978]

Looking forward to the cooler / damp spell!

[Tim M]

lol its been settled for weeks and some people still arent happy

erm, for some it has most definitely not been settled, sunny or dry at all, I can count on one hand the number of dry days in my neck of the woods, Mansfield, - and also on one hand the number of sunny days - in the past month at best. So no I am not happy by the current forecast lol and I am still waiting for summer.

[Yarmy]

erm, for some it has most definitely not been settled, sunny or dry at all, I can count on one hand the number of dry days in my neck of the woods, Mansfield, - and also on one hand the number of sunny days - in the past month at best. So no I am not happy by the current forecast lol and I am still waiting for summer.

 

Looks not too bad to me?

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/mansfield/ng18-2/june-weather/330105?monyr=6/1/2014&view=table

 

Frequently in the 70s, no rain for 2 weeks? Is that not settled and dry?

[Tim M]

Looks not too bad to me?

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/mansfield/ng18-2/june-weather/330105?monyr=6/1/2014&view=table

 

Frequently in the 70s, no rain for 2 weeks? Is that not settled and dry?

I can assure you Yarmy it has not been settled and dry despite what the charts may say. For instance last week we were plagued by the low cloud and constant drizzle / fine rain for 3/4 days despite the charts saying sunny spells which never materialised on most days. On the weather radar the rain wasn't showing up, but it was constant for a few days.

 

The previous week we had heavy, torrential rain showers on the Saturday/Sunday/Monday/Tuesday/and Friday ....

 

The Sunday just gone was forecast sunny and just a few miles away in Newark it was baking, but in Mansfield thick cloud (albeit it dry) never broke at all. Saturday was the same, though the sun did come out for about an hour eventually.

 

In fact, the best day of the past 2 weeks was yesterday when there were sunny spells on and off for most of the day before late shower.

 

At the moment we seem to cop the worst of the weather, whether it is west or east based.

[Yarmy]

I can assure you Yarmy it has not been settled and dry despite what the charts may say. For instance last week we were plagued by the low cloud and constant drizzle / fine rain for 3/4 days despite the charts saying sunny spells which never materialised on most days. On the weather radar the rain wasn't showing up, but it was constant for a few days.

 

The previous week we had heavy, torrential rain showers on the Saturday/Sunday/Monday/Tuesday/and Friday ....

 

The Sunday just gone was forecast sunny and just a few miles away in Newark it was baking, but in Mansfield thick cloud (albeit it dry) never broke at all. Saturday was the same, though the sun did come out for about an hour eventually.

 

In fact, the best day of the past 2 weeks was yesterday when there were sunny spells on and off for most of the day before late shower.

 

At the moment we seem to cop the worst of the weather, whether it is west or east based.

 

I can't vouch for the stats: presumably they are just automatically collated from the nearest met weather station or whatever. So I'll take your word for it.

[Tim M]

I can't vouch for the stats: presumably they are just automatically collated from the nearest met weather station or whatever. So I'll take your word for it.

I'd rather you sent me some sun and a long spell of dry weather :-)

[cheese]

in 40 years i cannot remember a long hot summer that didnt show its hand before the end of wimbledon.  i cannot recall a average or poor first half of the summer changing around to give a hot dry sunny second half.  as i see it, the weather goes in patterns, and a jet driven atlantic pattern isnt usually one that once established, doesnt last.now im not saying that you cant get nice sunny weather in late july august after a dismal or average june/early july. but in terms of a long hot sunny spell, whilst it can happen, is rare as rocking horse do-do's.

 

 

why was my post yesterday edited for saying that if the jet fires up then the heart of summer is likely to be a washout....when another poster later made the very same point and that went unchallenged?

 

huh...i expect this post will disappear too... along with me... see ya.

Except this isn't really an average June, is it? It's quite a bit warmer than average. The only thing lacking is very high temperatures.

 

But anyway, I can think of at least one summer that had a cool June but a warmer than average July and August.. 1997. June 1997 wasn't just cool, either - it was wet. Exceptionally wet. It was basically a mirror of June 2012.

Edited June 24, 2014 by cheese

[mushymanrob]

Except this isn't really an average June, is it? It's quite a bit warmer than average. The only thing lacking is very high temperatures.

 

But anyway, I can think of at least one summer that had a cool June but a warmer than average July and August.. 1997. June 1997 wasn't just cool, either - it was wet. Exceptionally wet. It was basically a mirror of June 2012.

 

not the point.

 

anyway id suggest this june is pretty average, but thats a different point.

 

im on about heat..hot spells, the great summers of 75,76,83,95, etc... the point is that we have not had a hot spell this year, (3+ day spell of 25c+ in the cet area) , and we wont by the second week of july. (unless the charts come up with something drastically different soon)people keep telling me im talking nonsense but fail to provide the stats that make my point untrue. tbh i dont think it can be proven to be nonsense, it can be proven to be rare.i cannot recall , nor know of, a decent hot spell developing after week 2 of july when theres been no sign of one beforehand. (might have happened in 1991, my mind was on other things back then) im not on about mean temps, 2012 was warm, im on about hot spells. some years have been warm, they have been dry, settled, but not classically hot .i dont think this summer will turn out to have a classic hot spell in it (like last year, another example of heat showing its hand by week 2 in july).... the pattern emerging isnt one thatll support one. that doesnt mean to say though that it wont be pleasant, with more dry settled sunny times.

[cheese]

people keep telling me im talking nonsense but fail to provide the stats that make my point untrue. tbh i dont think it can be proven to be nonsense, it can be proven to be rare. 

I've already given you an example. Rare, maybe, but entirely possible. In fact, last June wasn't very good either - didn't have a single hot spell.

 

Another example - 1990. June 1990 was cool, and so was the first of July, and then it became warmer mid-month, before early August shattered records nationwide.

 

I'd be more interested in knowing what the models were showing back then. In fact, can anyone remember when the hot spell last year started appearing in the model output?

Edited June 24, 2014 by cheese

[Richard2901]

I can assure you Yarmy it has not been settled and dry despite what the charts may say. For instance last week we were plagued by the low cloud and constant drizzle / fine rain for 3/4 days despite the charts saying sunny spells which never materialised on most days. On the weather radar the rain wasn't showing up, but it was constant for a few days.

 

The previous week we had heavy, torrential rain showers on the Saturday/Sunday/Monday/Tuesday/and Friday ....

 

The Sunday just gone was forecast sunny and just a few miles away in Newark it was baking, but in Mansfield thick cloud (albeit it dry) never broke at all. Saturday was the same, though the sun did come out for about an hour eventually.

 

In fact, the best day of the past 2 weeks was yesterday when there were sunny spells on and off for most of the day before late shower.

 

At the moment we seem to cop the worst of the weather, whether it is west or east based.

 

Sounds very similar to what we've been enduring here. It's certainly not been settled at all. It's been absolutely dire since the 12th. Rain or drizzle most days and worse than October levels of sunshine. Basically as bad as 2012. I've not managed more than 6 consecutive dry days so far this year. That is abysmal given that even the worst of years in the past have managed a week and nearly all, until recent years, at least 10 days +.

 

Even with the stream of cloud to the north west cut off today we still managed to be stuck under cloud all day. God knows where it was coming from or why it wouldn't clear. It's beyond a joke. Just shocking that a high pressure dominated month could be so poor. Day after day of overcast and no decent evenings. This month has been vile even compared to what has been the norm over the past 7 years and has an outside chance of finishing duller than November 2013 given the hideous outlook with no sign of any normal westerly synoptics 

[mushymanrob]

I've already given you an example. Rare, maybe, but entirely possible. In fact, last June wasn't very good either - didn't have a single hot spell.

 

Another example - 1990. June 1990 was cool, and so was the first of July, and then it became warmer mid-month, before early August shattered records nationwide.

 

I'd be more interested in knowing what the models were showing back then. In fact, can anyone remember when the hot spell last year started appearing in the model output?

 

sorry, im not making myself clear.

 

but 97 and 90 both had hot spells before july...they may come in late may (like 97), or in june, 97 had some good spells in the summer (actually i was on my hols in early aug when the best one was! lol, just like 03).

 

im talking about summers with NO hot spells before week 2 of july. like this summer... all the great sunny hot summers have OR had started by week 2 july. , 75, 76, 83, 84, 89, 90, 91, 95, 96, 03, 06, 13, . now i dare say that it has occurred over the last 100+ years of weather records, so i cannot say it will not happen, its just highly unlikely.

Edited June 24, 2014 by mushymanrob

[cheese]

Hm - May 1997, at least here, was around the same as May 2014 in terms of average temps, maybe slightly cooler, and the highest temp that month was 25.7C.

 

May 1990 admittedly did have a pretty warm spell early in the month.

Edited June 24, 2014 by cheese

[Thundery wintry showers]

The dictionary definition of "settled" is merely "not changeable", which can include spells of warm dry sunny weather, but can also include those mainly cloudy spells with the odd bit of sun and the odd bit of rain that we sometimes get when we're stuck on the edge of an anticyclone.  

 

I have a long history of being frustrated by media forecasts that talk optimistically about upcoming settled weather, and don't elaborate much further, assuming that readers/viewers will be happy enough as long as it doesn't rain.  I get similar frustrations reading the model thread, but I think that the underlying cause is generally different- most members, when expressing a desire for settled weather, are really after something reliably warm, dry and sunny (rather than just "not changeable") and there can be a tendency to over-optimistically equate "not changeable" with "warm, dry and sunny".

 

In this area of North Yorkshire it's been fairly typical for a spell spent on the edge of an anticyclone- dry bar the odd spot or two of rain, with sunshine and temperature levels being variable rather than consistently high. but overall no lower than average- I have certainly known much cloudier highs than this, though I appreciate that it's been very different in some other parts of the country, notably SW England (sunny) and NE Scotland (dull).  If the high had been centred further east I would have expected significantly warmer and sunnier-than-average conditions here, but it is often a tall order to achieve that in eastern England when the high is centred over western Britain or the eastern Atlantic.

Edited June 24, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Costa Del Fal]

The dictionary definition of "settled" is merely "not changeable", which can include spells of warm dry sunny weather, but can also include those mainly cloudy spells with the odd bit of sun and the odd bit of rain that we sometimes get when we're stuck on the edge of an anticyclone.  

 

I have a long history of being frustrated by media forecasts that talk optimistically about upcoming settled weather, and don't elaborate much further, assuming that readers/viewers will be happy enough as long as it doesn't rain.  I get similar frustrations reading the model thread, but I think that the underlying cause is generally different- most members, when expressing a desire for settled weather, are really after something reliably warm, dry and sunny (rather than just "not changeable") and there can be a tendency to over-optimistically equate "not changeable" with "warm, dry and sunny".

 

In this area of North Yorkshire it's been fairly typical for a spell spent on the edge of an anticyclone- dry bar the odd spot or two of rain, with sunshine and temperature levels being variable rather than consistently high. but overall no lower than average- I have certainly known much cloudier highs than this, though I appreciate that it's been very different in some other parts of the country, notably SW England (sunny) and NE Scotland (dull).  If the high had been centred further east I would have expected significantly warmer and sunnier-than-average conditions here, but it is often a tall order to achieve that in eastern England when the high is centred over western Britain or the eastern Atlantic.

Absolutely! Been very sunny for approaching 3 weeks there now! Very few cloudy moments!

[knocker]

Camborne 205 hours of sunshine this month. Boulmer 118.

[mushymanrob]

well ive researched... and the reasearch ive done supports/confirms my theory.all of the 15 'great' hot summers had 'hot' spells before the first week in july had ended.

 

1911

1933

1947

1949

1955

1959

1975

1976

1983

1984

1990

1995

2003

2006

2013

 

this year we have not had a hot spell (cet area), so the chances of us getting a long hot summer now must be stacked against it happening. of course its not impossible, but going off what the stats tell us, long hot summers generally, almost always , start in some way before the second week in july commences.however, that doesnt mean itll be a washout, im expecting a pretty average summer now, there will be some very pleasant days, even a short lived hot spell could evolve. but statistically, the data tells us that its now highly unlikely that we will get a summer to rival the list above.

[phil nw.]

As ever it's all down to preferences-whatever the season.

In Summer i am happy with a lot of dry periods,average temps.and some sun-not expecting wall to wall blue skies but enough to brighten up the days.

Obviously the odd day or two of rain/showers for the gardens as well.

That would be my preference and this pattern usually occurs with frequent ridging ne of the Azores high interspersed with passing Atlantic fronts from transient upper troughs.

At the moment the charts indicate such a weak westerly type of setup like this as go into July.

Unfortunately the days of me enjoying heatwaves lying by a pool,in the garden or on a beach with shade temps in excess of 27C are long gone.

A more typical decent UK Summer such as i outline is better for me playing golf and, i would think, more comfortable for most outdoor activities and more bearable for those at work.

 

[MP-R]

Each to their own but for me the most important thing in a summer is sunshine.

 

Sunshine > warmth > heat > thunderstorms - in that order. The last two also tend to come together.

[mushymanrob]

Think the negative QBO maybe impacting on our atmosphere at the moment as the PV just seems so weak and unable to keep weather systems at bay. That's probably why were getting 2012 esque looking charts for July currently, hope we don't have a 2012 type of July, however its looking quite worrying at the moment.

 

shhh dont say that, youre not allowed to 'write off' a month.... lol

[Captain Shortwave]

shhh dont say that, youre not allowed to 'write off' a month.... lol

Rightly so given how many wrote off June at the end of May.

 

On a related matter....

 

The use of the number 2012 in every other post is really starting to bore me tbh

[MP-R]

Yeah let's keep in mind that June was looking pretty awful at the turn of last month, only for low pressure to be held out west then a lengthy anticyclonic spell to develop! The models aren't completely doom and gloom yet.

[Milhouse]

Indeed. What about this chart from a summer that many remember quite fondly

 

 

Or this from an otherwise cracking summer

 

 

Or maybe this

 

[Scorcher]

The usual hyperbole has started I see in the MOD thread- I seem to remember posts writing off summer this time last year as well. Things can and do change very quickly- we basically have very little idea what the models will be showing in a week's time.

[mushymanrob]

Rightly so given how many wrote off June at the end of May.

 

On a related matter....

 

The use of the number 2012 in every other post is really starting to bore me tbh

 

 

i must of missed those posts..i didnt see any post that wrote off summer..

 

i did see posts (and indeed wrote a couple myself) that suggested that IF the greenland high, and southerly tracking jet, established themselves (as several runs indicated) then it didnt look good for a decent summer. thankfully those charts didnt become reality.

 

 

Apologize for it rob, but its not looking settled apologize to captain shortwave for mentioning it too.

 

no dont apologise... even in jest... im tired of the old mantra 'theres plenty of time left yet', or 'its only just started'... ive been weather watching for years, over 40 years, now im no technical expert, i dont claim to be and many here know far more then ill ever do.

 

but the thing thats struck me about our weather, is that it tends to follow patterns. that explains long times of wet/dry/hot/cold as a pattern often lasts from a few weeks to a few months. ive not a clue why this should be.... im assuming the 'upstream signals' all play a part in the pattern we get, a fairly safe assumption although i do not understand them.

its pretty certain now that next week will be dominated, later on and beyond, by a large atlantic trough. can we recover from this?... well nothing is certain, but this year, unlike those charts milhouse has posted from hot summers, we have had no indication of a hot settled spell. and my research such as it is, confirms that hot summers appear to always have at least 1 hot spell earlier in the season, late may or into june.  in other words theres no pattern this year that would suggest we are on the cusp of a hot spell. in fact as patterns go, once the jet kicks in itll be hard to shift and is likely to 'write off' in terms of heat/sun, several weeks at least, and possibly the whole summer.

of course this isnt set in stone, but i dont believe the weather is as random as some seem to think, and that the global pattern allows only a more narrow set of options available to us. i dont think there is a 'hot' option for us atm. of course patterns can change, and do, but when and why are two questions i cannot answer.  until something shifts, we wont get any heat. it might shift tomorrow, or it might be months away. but it appears that we are heading for an atlantic dominated regime, and its quite feasible for that to stay for weeks or even months. so 'writing off summer/july' is a perfectly plausible statement, as long as its not a definitive one (summer IS written off) but 'it looks like... ' or ' chances are that...'