Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[knocker]

Yup. Morning snapshot. ECM msl fot the weekend.  By Monday the GFS has the HP centred on the north German coast near Denmark. GFS surface temps gradually increase over the weekend from being slightly below norm on Saturday, around norm on Sunday and above norm on Monday, significantly so in Scotland

Edited April 28, 2014 by knocker

[IDO]

Just when I though from last night's 12z ensembles that there may be a trend to higher pressure from D10+ this morning's GFS ens are again now split. At T252 there are eight with a MLB over the UK, eight with a slack LP flow and six between the two.  The mean highlights this:

 

 

So still lots of uncertainty from the GFS beyond the Bank Holiday. About 25% of ens have an unsettled Bank Holiday Monday so a good long weekend must now be favorite. 

 

The 0z op loses the ridge by next Tuesday and brings us into an Atlantic flow as the PV (what remains) regroups back over Greenland, we are at the end of the line, as HP is never to far to our E/NE, so frequent bands of rain for 5+ days. Not much support in the ensembles for this so unlikely.

 

   

 

The GEM also sees the high slip east by T186: 

 

And an unsettled spell of lows and fronts hit the UK, as the jet runs through the UK:  

 

By T192 on the ECM we can see the PV moving from Siberia back towards the Arctic so with a MLB established over the UK with a feed from the Azores High we keep on the warm side of the polar jet and eventually drag up some mild uppers:

 

By D10:   

 

Similar synoptics to last night's mean but an improvement on. Bank that run.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Looking at ECM the cold air is getting watered down again this morning with temperatures soaring at the end mid 20's looks possible given the 850's

 

This is the coldest it gets with just a glancing blow on show now

 

 

From Saturday its high pressure galore with temperatures slowly recovering

 

Edited April 28, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

With many more run's before the cold from the North spills South towards the end of the week, I'm sure we will see many more variations in detail. And that detail will make all the difference.

 

An interesting week coming up Model watching.  

Edited April 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Looking at the ECM ens regarding STs it is not dissimilar to the direction of the GFS  A gradual warming from Saturday through to Monday and a blocking of any colder air. At the moment, and one must stress at the moment, it's looking good for a pretty cracking weekend. Pity a week's a long time in meteorology but I'd still take a punt on this not being far out given the upper air setup.

Edited April 28, 2014 by knocker

[draztik]

Summer is on the way, if you believe the ecm model. The ext ens also prolong this settled period into days 10-15, with a positive temp anomaly and high pressure dominating. CFS ens less sure, they're still trending for an average/below average month as a whole - tho they do show a settled start to May, first 10 or so. Which is a far cry from a previous update. Since last October, any cold shown by the models has never seen the light of day. The way the models are moving, piers corbyn may be on the mark with his recent suggestions re heat!

Ecm control days 10-15,temp anomaly.

Says it all!

Edited April 28, 2014 by draztik

[knocker]

Just a bit of fun really looked at the GFS ens mean in the middle of that date, Oh!!

 

[Lincstim]

Hey folks.

Not posted for a while. It's festival time for me this weekend. Getting on the decks at party in the pines in north lincs.

Any chance of an update in idiot terms so I can understand and then pass on to the 1500 + people attending.

It's been a great read for this up and coming weekend but with people camping I would like to warn them to wrap up if it's gona get cold.

Appreciate the help (if I get some )

Edited April 28, 2014 by Lincstim

[Gibby]

Hi Guys. Though my personal circumstances continue to get in the way of my life at the moment I have been told that 'life goes on' and with that in mind I have decided to resume my daily analysis of the models with you, though only once a day in the morning for now. Hope mods don't mind me putting this here but I know some of you have missed my reports and I would also like to thank those that have offered support over what has been and still is a traumatic time for me. For now to keep things on topic here is my effort from this morning lifted from my website bearing in mind it is taken from the 00zs

 

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY 28TH APRIL 2014.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. The UK lies in a slack flow around a weakened Low over Norther France. A weak upper Low near Northern Ireland will maintain it's own feed of light winds over Northern Britain.

 

GFS  shows a showery week to come as pressure is shown to remain slack across the UK as an injection of further shallow Low pressure crosses the South through this week. By the weekend High pressure is shown to move down across the UK settling things down into colder and brighter weather at the weekend with frosts at night. The trend thereafter appears to be a continuation of High pressure maintained close to the East or SW of the UK with a lot of dry weather, especially in the South.although incursions of Atlantic energy crossing East to the North of the UK at times could deliver occasional rain in Scotland and Northern Ireland as it becomes warmer in the South.

 

UKMO By the weekend High pressure is shown to have become established across the UK with attendant fine and dry weather with sunny spells but with the strong possibility of unwanted overnight frosts inland.

 

GEM This model shows the same trend as High pressure develops across the UK next weekend. Thereafter High pressure does slip away South a little allowing some Atlantic fronts to affect the North with rain in places. At the same time as winds back more Westerly milder air should remove the frost risk with somewhat warmer days too in the South.

 

NAVGEM keeps a strong ridge from High pressure over the Low Countries early next week with the weather set fair across all areas with some warm sunshine by days and although cool night still frosts should become less prevalent the deeper we move into next week as winds turn more Southerly.

 

ECM this morning shows High pressure well established across the UK through much of next week following a fine but chilly weekend. The resultant conditions would continue fine and bright with temperatures by day and night recovering somewhat with any rain unlikely anywhere.

 

MY THOUGHTS  It looks like the common denominator between the models this morning is that High pressure will become established at least for a time, coming down from the North before settling down across or near the UK over the Bank Holiday weekend and next week too from ECM, NAVGEM and to some degree GFS too. Any rainfall risk will look restricted towards any Atlantic incursion into the far North of Britain next week though taken as a whole a lot of dry, bright and pleasant weather looks likely next week though a heatwave looks unlikely at the moment.

[Milhouse]

I think we can probably consign any possible cold outbreak to the bin now. Its been so watered down that its not really anything notable. The GFS 12z has the 0C 850 hpa line just scraping past southern England and temperatures are back up to 12-15c by Saturday. The coolest day is Friday with 10-13c across the UK.

 

The notable upgrade has been that of high pressure. This mornings ECM op would deliver almost summerlike conditions.

[knocker]

Hey folks.Not posted for a while. It's festival time for me this weekend. Getting on the decks at party in the pines in north lincs.Any chance of an update in idiot terms so I can understand and then pass on to the 1500 + people attending.It's been a great read for this up and coming weekend but with people camping I would like to warn them to wrap up if it's gona get cold.Appreciate the help (if I get some )

 

I know this is a rather reactionary idea but why not consult the professionals?

[The PIT]

Downgrade continues on the GFS and cold is changing to a short lived cool spell. Good chance by Wednesday it will have gone altogether. UKMo though still keen to bring the cold uppers in. This results a good three degree difference in temps for Sheffield during Thursday and Friday. ECM not out yet it will be interesting too see if that follows the GFS idea or falls back towards the UKMO.

[Lincstim]

I know this is a rather reactionary idea but why not consult the professionals?

I'm much happier (as I have done for the last couple of years ) getting feedback on the potential weather from the experts (or knowledgable people) of this forum. No ones questioned me asking before and and everyone previously has been extremely helpful. I love all things weather but my knowledge of understanding all that is posted is not great. And last year the info I received from here was amazing and spot on as a lot of the professional forecasters predicted rain and cloud cover! Well tell that to my sunburnt legs!!!! Exactly as I was told on here hot and dry with potentially one or two showers ! (2 very brief showers)

[Nick L]

And back to discussing the models please folks.

[ANYWEATHER]

I'm much happier (as I have done for the last couple of years ) getting feedback on the potential weather from the experts (or knowledgable people) of this forum.No ones questioned me asking before and and everyone previously has been extremely helpful.I love all things weather but my knowledge of understanding all that is posted is not great.And last year the info I received from here was amazing and spot on as a lot of the professional forecasters predicted rain and cloud cover!Well tell that to my sunburnt legs!!!! Exactly as I was told on here hot and dry with potentially one or two showers ! (2 very brief showers)

Hiyer, yes fine conditions, no rain and coldnights.  Plenty of sunshine by day. You choose the right weekend! Enjoy!

[Lincstim]

Thanks very much

Keep up the great work on here

Love reading all the updates

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Downgrade continues on the GFS and cold is changing to a short lived cool spell. Good chance by Wednesday it will have gone altogether. UKMo though still keen to bring the cold uppers in. This results a good three degree difference in temps for Sheffield during Thursday and Friday. ECM not out yet it will be interesting too see if that follows the GFS idea or falls back towards the UKMO.

Hopefully the UKMO will follow the big two! Watching this downgrade has been quite pleasing! Could this settling high pressure be the cusp of something quite fantastic for the coming summer months, maybe a proper flaming June!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Sorry Frosty , although I am a fan of your comments , especially in Winter , all I am seeing is the same thing that has happened with Cold shots all winter , it is getting more and more Watered down , and High pressure is moving in from the West. Only good thing I can see is that another Cold spell that could rapidly end up being another Warm and Sunny spell , which at this time of year is good, The 6z is starting to look much more like ECM in the reliable . 

 

Going back to this , As I think what the Models have done is what I spotted on Friday . Them uppers are really building to our South now and any Southerly flow will draw them closer .I am leaning towards a Warm start to May now , let's just hope some Warmer weather get's here in time for the bank holiday .

[Winter Cold]

Well we have the UKMO and ECM both still bringing the colder uppers in on Friday

 

 

GFS less cold than those two. But the UKMO is obviously our own model, built for our island and i know a lot of posters on here always want it on board. METO and BBC still going for a cooler spell too.

 

Bank holiday Monday still looking real nice on ECM tonight. High pressure over us and the uppers getting warmer, so it could be a lovely day!

 

Edited April 28, 2014 by Winter Cold

[shaky]

Beautifull ecm so far!!and the ukmo 12z agrees aswell!!so at the moment we are looking at a warm and sunny bank holiday and beyond!!

[Scorcher]

A great run from the ECM tonight with high pressure becoming dominant into the weekend and beyond. It looks like it could also become warmer after Monday with some warmer upper air temperatures moving in. If the run were to come off we could see temperatures quite widely over 20C by Tuesday and Wednesday,

[knocker]

Yup things looking hunkydory

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Who is going to say the gfs is wrong and the ecm right!???   I expect the gfs  backing off its ideas. cant wait for tomorrows runs, :winky:  :winky: :winky:

[Captain Shortwave]

Stunning ECM ensembles, showing heights parked over the UK for the bank holiday before slowly drifting to sit over Central/Northern Europe.

 

Could we see our first proper "Summerlike" spell next week? ECM says yes.

[Summer Sun]

Evening folks away at the moment so much later checking the charts have to say I'm very impressed by ECM and its ensemble run once the high gets in later this week its here for the forseeable as things stand tonight though it does still look like a cooler blip will herald a change to this settled weather with tempeaures slowly recovering

 

 

GFS 12z temps for BH Monday looking very respectable for England and wales with some parts of Scotland seeing some high temps too though western scotland does look cooler

 

Edited April 28, 2014 by Summer Sun