Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Frosty.]

There is a wintry flavour to the outlook from the models tonight. Things have changed, only a day or so ago, london was supposed to be warm and sunny for the marathon at 17c but now the southeast can expect nearer 12c which will at least help the runners but not the spectators. We are on track for a nw-se aligned jet with a gradual change to rather cold and unsettled weather from around midweek onwards, however, despite this weekend trending cooler, early next week looks like becoming warmer and sunnier for a time as high pressure builds in across most of the uk, but it won't last,, the southeast hanging on to the fine weather for longest but progressively colder and more unsettled from the northwest, cold enough for showers to turn wintry at times on northern hills and for damaging night frosts, the further outlook also indicates a chilly theme. So, there is certainly a risk of wintry ppn as we get to the easter period, mainly for hilly parts of northern uk.

Edited April 11, 2014 by Frosty.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Frosty, As mentioned some of the most wintry charts we have seen for a long while. A much colder and unsettled 2nd half to April continues to be shown in the models as has been the case for the past 4/5 days now, An interesting few days coming up as the models firm up on detail for this upcoming pattern.

Edited April 12, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

Yes PM..as you have said several times recently, the 2nd half of April does indeed look rather cold and unsettled with our weather coming from north of west.

[Peejayem]

 GFS 18z doesn't look particularly wintry to me!

[davehsug]

 GFS 18z doesn't look particularly wintry to me!

Neither did the ECM 12z. Perhaps there's something we're missing.

[Peejayem]

Neither did the ECM 12z. Perhaps there's something we're missing.

a pair of blinkers?!

[Frosty.]

The latest met office outlook has a wintry flavour, wintry in terms of becoming cold enough at times for showers to turn to sleet and snow on higher ground and for damaging frosts. By mid april standards..that would be wintry. No blinkers, just keeping it real is all :-)

Edited April 11, 2014 by Frosty.

[CongletonHeat]

Neither did the ECM 12z. Perhaps there's something we're missing.

No there is nothing to miss.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes Frosty, As mentioned some of the most wintry charts we have seen for a long while. A much colder and unsettled 2nd half to April continues to be shown in the models as has been the case for the past 4/5 days now, An interesting few days coming up as the models firm up on detail for this upcoming pattern.

And this morning they are all gone.....

GFS

Turns unsettled from the south, warm in the south so perhaps some thunderstorms possible???

UKMO

High pressure building in, nothing cool and unsettled here.

GEM

Follows the UKMO but pushes on in forming a Scandi high

ECM

Similar to the 2 above.

 

ECM ens from last night do not look too cool

Neither do the GFS ens

 

Where's the cold??? 

Edited April 12, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Well now, this is interesting, this completely goes against what the gfs showed yesterday..and the met office update too.... the Gfs 00z op run completely dumps the cold nw'ly flow. High pressure, once firmly established early next week, becomes very reluctant to go anywhere but eventually pressure does leak away with  cyclonic replacing anticyclonic. Next week is dominated by fine and sunny weather with light winds, mild / pleasantly warm days but chilly nights under clear skies with a nip of frost according to this run, eventually it does become unsettled with spells of possibly thundery rain but still with warm sunny periods and temperatures into the 60's F.

Edited April 12, 2014 by Frosty.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

morning  all fantasy world looking a bit damp/wet at the  moment!!

[Frosty.]

The latest met office outlook has a wintry flavour, wintry in terms of becoming cold enough at times for showers to turn to sleet and snow on higher ground and for damaging frosts. By mid april standards..that would be wintry. No blinkers, just keeping it real is all :-)

oh boy, the above will become completely unreal if the gfs 00z verifies

[Supacell]

oh boy, the above will become completely unreal if the gfs 00z verifies

 

I know how you feel. I was asked yesterday what the weather will be like next week and I said it would be bright and fairly mild at first but turning colder and more showery. That will teach me to base forecasts on the models for a week out, especially when they are so volatile at the moment. 

 

Of course, at this time of the year I would prefer warm, sunny days and possible thunder to cold with wintry showers and frosts but then the weather doesn't really care what I or anyone else prefer.

[gottolovethisweather]

I don't think some of last night's analyses such as those from Frosty and Polar Maritime are that far out to be fair, either. It will always be colder and more showery further North but those of us located in the South, especially Southern England, SW and SE England as well perhaps, will be left wondering what all the fuss is about. What we need to be careful of here, is just how much attention to detail we are giving to things from a local perspective as I still say the continuation of a NW/SE Britain split is the most accurate statement one can make at these timescales. In fact, what we are speaking about still revolves around changes at t+120 hours or thereabouts as can be seen from the overnight ensembles spreads, my favoured guidance tool.

 

Let's view the SLP, t850s and Precipitation totals from West Yorkshire, courtesy of the GFS 0z run.

 

 

 

Here's the Berkshire version by way of comparison, which to my eyes look quite a bit warmer, drier and with slightly higher pressure way out into FI.

 

 

Not forgetting we can view the situation from five days ago by looking at my post below and see how things have changed with these like for like comparisons.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79879-model-output-discussion-310314-onwards/?p=2954897

 

 

Definitely a few runs need to be completed before Easter weekend itself is nailed but my view is that it won't be an especially wintry one at this stage for most of England, however the modelling is undergoing some ups and downs right now too.

Edited April 12, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[knocker]

Yesterdays ECM had the high pressure dominating during the week and the colder air gradually nudging into the UK by the weekend culminating in a low 980mbs over the UK by Monday. How is it looking today? Over to Mystic Meg.

 

It’s still going for the low pressure on Monday but also a break up of the west to flow with pressure building in the Atlantic giving a very temporary blocking before giving way to a deep low in mid Atlantic

 

All this gives on average a plus anomaly at 850hPa so we are looking at unsettled and slightly above average temps. No snow.

 

Thanks Meg.

 

[Polar Maritime]

And this morning they are all gone.....

 

Where's the cold??? 

 

Yes one run in isolation, That evidence does not overwhelm my analysis.. Or the pattern/trend the models and the experts have been showing over the last few days for the 2nd half of April, In-fact far far from it...

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/page-82#entry2956196

 

And just for the record, I have always stated "Colder" not "Cold" so please do not keep misquoting me,  But it could very well be "Rather Cold", as the METO state.

 

I like to be realistic.

Edited April 12, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

Well hats off to UKMO the met office / BBC weather last night after the 10pm new with Alex Deakin had a look at next weeks weather it said; Dry, some sunshine, patchy frost and once again this morning UKMO and now the others are showing this for next week

 

 

 

 

Looks like next week could be fairly pleasant for many especially in any sunny periods

 

You can see the forecast from the beeb here - http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04000n3/bbc-weather-11042014

 

[Milhouse]

I did suspect the GFS was overdoing the extent of low pressure and how far south it got next week. Turns out that it has fallen more in line with the ECM bringing a dry and, at times, warm week. Easter weekend turns progressively more unsettled with temperatures near average.

[phil nw.]

Mid week seems still to be the interesting period.

The models show that little split between the High going east and the next one out in the Atlantic-last nights T120 fax  shows the detail

a weakening front coming se with any rain dying out.

The UK model has never really been in favour of an upper trough digging into Europe and the trend from the previously unsettled and cooler GFS has been to shallow the wave pattern out much like the ECM/UKMO as we approach Easter weekend.

The ens means for a week ahead reflect this for sure. 

 

so it looks like we are now looking at the usual n/s split again around the BH weekend.

Edited April 12, 2014 by phil nw.

[Cloud 10]

The operational runs from the models are all over the place at the moment regarding prospects

for the Easter weekend,which is highlighted nicely when comparing today's GFS and ECM 00z

charts for good Friday with yesterday's.

 

ecm today..  yesterday..

 

gfs today..  yesterday..

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

Yes one run in isolation, That evidence does not overwhelm my analysis.. or the pattern/trend the models and the experts have been showing over the last few days for the 2nd half of April, In-fact far far from it...

 

And just for the record, I have always stated "Colder" not "Cold" so please do not keep misquoting me,  But it could well be.

 

I like to be realistic.

I agree with you PM..you are always realistic and post charts to back up your views, you are one of the posters I respect on here, one thing that really angers me is the personal sly digs on the lines of I told you so..etc. Nobody on here can accurately second guess what the models will do next or we would all be working at the met office..keep it real mate.

[knocker]

The ECM control anomalies  over Easter for 850 and 500 hPa.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Mid week seems still to be the interesting period.

The models show that little split between the High going east and the next one out in the Atlantic-last nights T120 fax  shows the detail

fax120s.gif

 

so it looks like we are now looking at the usual n/s split again around the BH weekend.

 

I agree Phil with regard to the midweek period, as it has seemingly been the case for a good five days now, the 16th/17th April is the period to watch for any potential breakdown. How long any breakdown lasts and just which part of the UK it effects remains the pertinent question. I favour the N/S split for the Easter weekend to which you also refer. One thing is for sure, there will be many a wobble in the outputs over the coming runs and as always I tend to ignore overanalysing each run and stick to like for like analysis as that has proven to be a more useful guidance tool over the years. It is a good job that the UKMO only post up their updates twice a day too as us model watchers have too much information at our disposal as it is and that can sometimes cloud our judgement IMHO.

Edited April 12, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[draztik]

To be fair, CS, has just been keeping us all in check. Sometimes I allow myself to read too much into the ensemble data, and while the ens continue to project cooler weather into the mid term, it has been watered down. Nxt wk had looked fairly chilly; now? Not so much.

temp anom covering Easter period

[gottolovethisweather]

To be fair, CS, has just been keeping us all in check. Sometimes I allow myself to read too much into the ensemble data, and while the ens continue to project cooler weather into the mid term, it has been watered down. Nxt wk had looked fairly chilly; now? Not so much.

temp anom covering Easter period

 

Note to all, lets cut out these personal references from now on, please. As ever, all views are welcome in here even if they differ in their content. Quite frankly, right now, they are bound to, as a change in weather type of sorts may well be on its way in four to five days time.

Edited April 12, 2014 by gottolovethisweather