Convective / Storm Discussion - 30th March 2014 onwards

[Ian Price]

That's bloody excellent! Wonderful shot!

Thanks! Actually it's a video still , but still good quality though!

[Costa Del Fal]

Low risk of a few thundery imports tonight? NMM seems to think so plus the Met o hinting at thundery showers in the West Midlands tomorrow morning?

[timeless]

lm wondering when these thundery shows are projected to start in the west midlands, a general timeframe to be around. according to netweather there is potential from around midnight onwards then more so towards the morning, however the GFS lifted index charts dont seem as bad as they did yesterday,

 

now correct me if lm wrong but even this chart suggests storms will be a little further north theoretically meaning they might miss there herefordshire area (tho l hope on reading it right, triangles with the dots mean rain and the red arrow is convective weather?)

 

[StormChaseUK]

I think the chances tonight will be different to the storms that formed yesterday evening, different conditions so around 11pm-2am heavy rain drifting up from SW England, with odd rumble IMO.

 

Tomorrow could be good though

[Paul]

For those of you who noticed the slightly erratic updates on the ATD lightning detectors yesterday, the problems are now all sorted - so the free version will update every 15 minutes, and the Extra version every 5 minutes

 

Free

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

 

Extra

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=lightning;sess=

[Mapantz]

The BBC hint at a few sprinklings in the south this evening...

Edited April 1, 2014 by Mapantz

[Andy Bown]

There is a batch of showers over Northern France edging slowly North now.

[Supacell]

The normal GFS downgrades have occurred today regarding storm potential tomorrow and things no longer look as good. Still a chance of some storms around, perhaps more likely in the Midlands which is good for me, but not the convective day that tomorrow looked just yesterday.

[timeless]

they dont look to be as far west as originally projected at least.

[weatherobsuk]

The N.Sea oil workers must be looking at a good potent cell that's offshore currently, mostly heavy PPN but a few strikes being recorded too.

[timeless]

GFS seems to be pushing activity further east again, north of birmingham, thursdays just seems to be further east.

[Costa Del Fal]

Next couple of days don't look too exciting at the moment. Met office forecasts look like too much cloud and just light showers. Don't make much of any thunder risk at all

[Darren Bown]

Estofex have central UK under a 15% risk of lightning for tomorrow. I'll take that over nothing.

Cape and LI look lower tomorrow than earlier, at around 700j/kg and -1 respectively, compared to around 900j/kg and -3 earlier.

[Darren Bown]

Also, does the MetOffice know something we don't?

Edited April 1, 2014 by Darren Bown

[vladthemert]

The N.Sea oil workers must be looking at a good potent cell that's offshore currently, mostly heavy PPN but a few strikes being recorded too.

 

not so sure would be petrified highest point anywhere around 

[Chris K]

Also, does the MetOffice know something we don't?image.jpg

 

Perhaps...our local forecast in the W.Country by Ian F mentioned heavy showers moving in quite early with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. Personally I am not expecting much (except rain), but we will see!

Edited April 1, 2014 by Chris K

[vladthemert]

Also, does the MetOffice know something we don't?image.jpg

 

7am looks bad for heavy rainfall according to metoffice that what shows develops much bigger just south bicester looks 32+

[Raidan]

A few sferics down south wondering if anything will happen here.

[Karl83]

A few sferics down south wondering if anything will happen here.

Its edging ever closer...

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

Issued 2014-04-02 08:39:48

Valid: 02/04/2014 0600z to 03/04/2014 0600z

 

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

Synopsis

Upper ridge continues to dominate across much of mainland Europe, bringing settled conditions. Slow-moving long-wave upper trough over eastern Atlantic will bring a warm southerly flow aloft across western Europe inc. the UK ... while surface low pressure to the SW of the UK draws in a dry easterly flow at the surface.

... SOUTHERN and WESTERN BRITAIN ...

Southerly flow Warm Air Advection (WAA) aloft sourced from North Africa (responsible for Saharan sand particles recently) will drive a plume of steep lapse rates north across southern and western areas of the UK today. Sampled surface airmass is rather dry, though mid-levels air moister, with destabilisation of this mid-level moisture bringing some convective elements embedded in the mostly dynamic rainfall spreading in across southern and western areas today ahead of slow-moving cold front edging in across the west. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are likely above a stable boundary (surface) layer in the above areas today (see map), strong southerly flow may allow some organisation of cells, with a risk of hail, gusty winds, cg lightning and torrential downpours leading to localised flooding the main threats with any storms.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=b8f09079eaf8336b8b09f58ce1d05579

Edited April 2, 2014 by Nick F

[Costa Del Fal]

Rather cloudy today so no chance of anything surface based imo. Not holding my breath on anything elevated either. They seem short lived storms thus far.

Edited April 2, 2014 by Blizzards

[Arnie Pie]

Looks like the first of the ppn will be heading into the west area via the M5........The cruds rapidly burning away and temps are rising

May be an interseting day

[MP-R]

Heard thunder earlier this morning during a torrential downpour. Very summerlike at the moment.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like the first of the ppn will be heading into the west area via the M5........The cruds rapidly burning away and temps are rising

May be an interseting day

Wish I could share the enthusiasm.

 

Very uninspiring radar. Lots of light drizzle here currently and on the radar. Not warm either.

[Mapantz]

Wish I could share the enthusiasm. Very uninspiring radar. Lots of light drizzle here currently and on the radar. Not warm either.

In agreement there. The MO have the thunder shower icon for here at the moment.