South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 01/03/14

[Snowangel-MK]

Lovely here in the Cotswolds (apart from the lack of phone signal and no wi FI) we certainly can't fault the weather - seen some signs of flooding, sandbags and flood warning signs still in place but hopefully things will get back to normal for the main tourist season - feeling very relaxed and lucky to have been out in the fresh air and sunshine all day with Mr P visiting such pretty places :-)

[MrSunshine]

Well what a beautiful day it has been!  I've been doing some gardening work - outdoors in the garden itself and also tending to my indoor tropical garden in the conservatory

 

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The garden shrubs and the palms have not stopped growing all winter with the above average temperatures. Despite the storms and incessant rain, the palms have suffered the least damage of any of the garden plants with their large, thick, glossy, fan-like fronds

 

082.JPG

 

After this, I went and bought some shopping, and stopped briefly at the Fairlight Firehills. The shadows were lengthening as the sun went down behind me over the fields and out to sea

 

078.JPG

 

 

Talking of shadows, here is my very own Shadow watching me as I pottered around the conservatory this afternoon 

 

085.JPG  087.JPG

 

I've got some more animal pics to come fairly soon from the New Forest taken on my visit there yesterday of the lovely ponies in Minstead, but these are still on my friends phone and she is going to e-mail them to me

 

In terms of the weather model output, the mid latitude ridges from the atlantic, across us, and into Europe I spoke about the other day are set to become well established and stay over our region throughout the coming week. The only fly in the ointment is a very weak trough which looks to be strangled by the High pressure belt overnight Monday and into Tuesday but will produce some cloud and a little drizzle for a while before the sun breaks out again by pm on Tuesday. I am sure john p will provide more detail with his widely appreciated summaries in due course and surface analysis of the fax charts etc

 

By Friday we still have High pressure in charge for our region as depicted by the latest updated UKMO chart

 

 

The other day it was mentioned about movement of the polar vortex transporting energy from Canada, where it has been for weeks and weeks and weeks, across the North pole into Siberia during the further outlook period. As suggested might be the case, this trend has continued to be advertised and eventually is likely to start to try and pull the jet stream back southwards again. On that UKMO chart above (at day 6) we can see how much of the bulk of the vortex is modelled to have moved across the pole.

 

From day 10 the suggestion from the ECM ensembles (this morning) supports the vortex into Siberia and hints of a cooler and more mobile airstream with winds origininating from a slightly more northerly latitude by this time

 

 

At this stage the pattern is still fairly flat with the Azores High, but as suggested previously we should watch for greater amplification coming into the atlantic pattern in the much longer range that could give a colder last third of March. I do think that the chances of this are increasing - but the changes will happen further north and take some time to come this far south. It remains a long way off anyway at this time with a lot of fine and dry weather to come for outdoor pursuits.

 

This week is going to provide a dramatic contrast to exactly one year back and the amazing powder snowstorm IMBY on the 11/12 March. I will restrain myself and not put up any more pictures of this event. In terms of weather enjoyment that is going to prove very hard to beat for me, taking into account the time of year - but surely the pleasant sunshine and quiet conditions of the coming week is going to be a very acceptable second best - especially within the context of the appallling conditions of the last 3 months.

 

I think we all thoroughly deserve this very welcome change

 

Excellent post Tamara & equally good photo's to boot. Can only hope this fine weather extends further north throughout next week & beyond.

[Iceni]

Oh, I really, really hope not! It's so beautifully spring-like atm, I've packed all the winter coats and jumpers away... Come next October I will be as keen as anyone to see snow but what I want now (and what we all need) are SUNSHINE and WARMTH!

 

Can't remember which winter it was, but I did that. Out they all came again a week later.

[lassie23]

Can't remember which winter it was, but I did that. Out they all came again a week later.

From weather web tv by simon keeling

 

I've been highlighting for the past few weeks the fact that the dry weather we are about the experience, and the milder temperatures, were likely to hang around for 8 to 10 days.This mornings model runs build on that idea, with the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian all going for a change in conditions around 18th.The GFS and Canadian GEM models are most bullish on this idea, turning things much colder as a north to northwest wind sets in. This could bring a brief return to winter over northern hills with snow showers, and there could be some snow showers at lower levels too.Temperatures would fall and it would likely be windy.It is still a way off but the thoughts are there. If you need dry weather to egg things done, no is the time to do it and then get ready for a change after 18th.I suspect it won't be a dramatic cold snap, but after the mild spring weather of the coming days it may well be a shock to the system.

Edited March 8, 2014 by lassie23

[HammerJack]

Hi Leigh, Harry Ramsdens is the best place on the seafront, near the Palace Pier, fair prices for the quality. Or there is a fish and chip shop under the arches down the stairs to the left of the pier, though not as good quality/quantity, but okay if you just want a quick supper on the beach. Or if you decide against fish and chips, I would go to Bill's a unique little place to eat about 10 minute walk from the front, just past the Pavillion. If you are coming by car, you could travel along to the Marina, they have a selection of restaurants including a fish restaurant with nice views and free parking. Links below enjoy your day :-)http://www.harryramsdens.co.uk/england/brighton & http://bills-website.co.uk/restaurants/brighton/ & http://www.brightonmarina.co.uk/eat-and-drink/the-brasserie-fish-grill.aspx

brilliant. Thanks for the info. Cracking day here today. Had a busy morning, taking my children to their cousins bday party then had a house viewing. Then we went to the park on bikes and scooters. Felt great sitting there with a lolly, watching my boys have fun and soaking up some much needed vitimin D.

[Tamara]

Hi Tams, loving your garden both inside and out! As you say, what a contrast to this time last year! Going to make the most of the next week of weather and get out and about if I can and attend to the puppy damage in my garden, they do like to dig and chew!

 

Have a nice evening!

 

Ian

Hi Ian - thanks! I think you get a bigger award for photography than me. Some of your recent sunrise pics etc have been amazing colours! Shadow doesn't chew things he shouldn't chew, but he does like to take his food out of his bowl and eat it on the floor instead

 

Seems that there is a "migration/merger" from both the Midlands and North West into our region atm. I wonder why that can be? 

 

Thanks Leigh - it was fun designing it!

Edited March 8, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[HammerJack]

Well what a beautiful day it has been!  I've been doing some gardening work - outdoors in the garden itself and also tending to my indoor tropical garden in the conservatory

 

081.JPG

 

The garden shrubs and the palms have not stopped growing all winter with the above average temperatures. Despite the storms and incessant rain, the palms have suffered the least damage of any of the garden plants with their large, thick, glossy, fan-like fronds

 

082.JPG

 

After this, I went and bought some shopping, and stopped briefly at the Fairlight Firehills. The shadows were lengthening as the sun went down behind me over the fields and out to sea

 

078.JPG

 

 

Talking of shadows, here is my very own Shadow watching me as I pottered around the conservatory this afternoon 

 

085.JPG  087.JPG

 

I've got some more animal pics to come fairly soon from the New Forest taken on my visit there yesterday of the lovely ponies in Minstead, but these are still on my friends phone and she is going to e-mail them to me

 

In terms of the weather model output, the mid latitude ridges from the atlantic, across us, and into Europe I spoke about the other day are set to become well established and stay over our region throughout the coming week. The only fly in the ointment is a very weak trough which looks to be strangled by the High pressure belt overnight Monday and into Tuesday but will produce some cloud and a little drizzle for a while before the sun breaks out again by pm on Tuesday. I am sure john p will provide more detail with his widely appreciated summaries in due course and surface analysis of the fax charts etc

 

By Friday we still have High pressure in charge for our region as depicted by the latest updated UKMO chart

 

 

The other day it was mentioned about movement of the polar vortex transporting energy from Canada, where it has been for weeks and weeks and weeks, across the North pole into Siberia during the further outlook period. As suggested might be the case, this trend has continued to be advertised and eventually is likely to start to try and pull the jet stream back southwards again. On that UKMO chart above (at day 6) we can see how much of the bulk of the vortex is modelled to have moved across the pole.

 

From day 10 the suggestion from the ECM ensembles (this morning) supports the vortex into Siberia and hints of a cooler and more mobile airstream with winds origininating from a slightly more northerly latitude by this time

 

 

At this stage the pattern is still fairly flat with the Azores High, but as suggested previously we should watch for greater amplification coming into the atlantic pattern in the much longer range that could give a colder last third of March. I do think that the chances of this are increasing - but the changes will happen further north and take some time to come this far south. It remains a long way off anyway at this time with a lot of fine and dry weather to come for outdoor pursuits.

 

This week is going to provide a dramatic contrast to exactly one year back and the amazing powder snowstorm IMBY on the 11/12 March. I will restrain myself and not put up any more pictures of this event. In terms of weather enjoyment that is going to prove very hard to beat for me, taking into account the time of year - but surely the pleasant sunshine and quiet conditions of the coming week is going to be a very acceptable second best - especially within the context of the appallling conditions of the last 3 months.

 

I think we all thoroughly deserve this very welcome change

Cracking post and pictures Tamara. Mrs LeighD and I are very impressed with you indoor garden.

[classylady]

Super day here!   I just love the smell of freshly cut grass.......

[lassie23]

Super day here!   I just love the smell of freshly cut grass.......

My lawn is still like surrey's..........damp, need a few more days of this weather before i can cut mine.

[MrSunshine]

Hi Ian - thanks! I think you get a bigger award for photography than me. Some of your recent sunrise pics etc have been amazing colours! Shadow doesn't chew things he shouldn't chew, but he does like to take his food out of his bowl and eat it on the floor instead

 

Seems that there is a "migration/merger" from both the Midlands and North West into our region atm. I wonder why that can be? 

 

Thanks Leigh - it was fun designing it!

 

I have many friends on the South East thread Tamara including yourself (hopefully). I find your posts highly informative & useful. 

[Kent Snow]

Lovely day in the garden out of the South easterly wind. Felt cool when the sun started to go down though!

[john pike]

hi all

 

been at work all day

 

and tomorrow

 

heres the gfs ensembles

 

 

that drop is still there

 

however a BIG spread on the 15th

 

so not all certain what happens after yet

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0

 

gfs op certainly a cold one for sure

 

however

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 

ecm has other ideas #

 

back later with the fax charts

Edited March 8, 2014 by john pike

[MAF]

Lovely day in the garden out of the South easterly wind. Felt cool when the sun started to go down though!

'ning all

yep just got in from dog walk and can confirm it is officially chilly

diurnal drop in temp after a mild day makes it feel cooler than the current 10C here. hoping tomorrow is as forecast, need lots of vitamin D

[john pike]

just doing tomorrow for now

 

a weak southerly flow

 

rain

 

nil

 

temps

 

after early morning misty murk clears

 

we should see temps around 16-18 degrees

 

around the kent area if you avoid too much cloud

 

you may hit the 20 mark

 

be back later with the rest

[MAF]

j

... snip ...

 

be back later with the rest

that means more scrolling John :lol:

thanks mate, its good knowing you can give a decent view on the coming days

[Alixzandra]

lovely Day here, still registering 12 c outside! @Tamara, wonderful garden you have there, looks really established. And Ian, fantastic photographs! Spent the afternoon installing my new growing area, an 18ft x 7.5 ft poly tunnel, the mini-beasts are not destroying my brassicas again :-)

[MAF]

is brassicas a substitued word by the swear filter? :lol:

[Alixzandra]

is brassicas a substitued word by the swear filter? :lol:

Could work well as a 'blasphemous word' I suppose. Example: What the Brassica are you on about :-). But no, I meant these

[lassie23]

is brassicas a substitued word by the swear filter?

Brassica (/ˈbræsɨkə/) is a genus of plants in the mustard family (Brassicaceae). The members of the genus are informally known as cruciferous vegetables, cabbages, or mustard plant. Crops from this genus are sometimes called cole crops—derived from the Latin caulis, meaning stem or cabbage.^[1]

Members of brassica commonly used for food include cabbage, cauliflower, broccoli, Brussels sprouts, and some seeds. The genus is known for its important agricultural and horticultural crops and includes a number of weeds, both of wild taxa and escapees from cultivation. It counts over 30 wild species and hybrids plus numerous cultivars and hybrids of cultivated origin. Most are seasonal plants (annuals or biennials), but some are small shrubs. Brassica plants have been the subject of much scientific interest for their agricultural importance. Six particularly species (B. carinata, B. juncea, B. oleracea, B. napus, B. nigra and B. rapa) evolved by the combining of chromosomes from three earlier species, as described by the Triangle of U theory.

The genus is native in the wild in western Europe, the Mediterranean and temperate regions of Asia and many wild species grow as weeds, especially in North America, South America, and Australia.

A dislike for cabbage or broccoli can result from the fact that these plants contain a compound similar to phenylthiocarbamide (PTC), which is bitter or tasteless to some people depending on their 'taste buds'.^[2]

 

Is this too much information MAF   10.4c still in the capital

[MAF]

....

Is this too much information MAF   10.4c still in the capital

yep

[MAF]

Could work well as a 'blasphemous word' I suppose. Example: What the Brassica are you on about :-). But no, I meant these

so carrying on the blasphemy vein of thought. perhaps i will start using OMB instead of OMG :lol:

11C here now. dropping in temp becoming rapid. clear and still out now

[john pike]

tomorrow night

 

 

a very weak north westerly flow

 

rain

 

none

 

temps

 

around 6-8 degrees

 

watch for possible fog overnight

 

moreso west of our region

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

monday

 

a very weak north easterly flow

 

rainfall

 

none

 

temps

 

around 13 degrees

 

however it looks cloudy for a bulk of the morning and may persist to the east-north east of the region all day

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

monday night

 

a very weak north east flow

 

dry again

 

temps

 

feeling chilly

 

temps colder 4-6 degrees

 

however watch again for fog and probably more widespread

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tuesday

 

a more noticeable easterly flow

 

rainfall

 

none

 

temps

 

around 12-14 degrees

 

feeling a tad chilly in the wind

 

that dieing front and easterly flow looks like a lot of cloud with the odd sunny spells

 

thats it for now

 

be back later

 

john

[MrSunshine]

I hope GOD gives us a decent Summer this year, were due one. 

[Methuselah]

I hope GOD gives us a decent Summer this year, were due one. 

We've only just had one... 

[abruzzi spur]

Evening all

A grey start to the day soon gave way to charcoal blue smudges and then, as the under 11s football team battled to a fine draw against the league leaders, to proper early spring sunshine. The football ground is shared with the cricket club and on arriving this morning there was a small tractor pulling a heavy roller across the pitch and the smell was in the air of cut grass and freshly painted sightscreens. I have never had such a sense of new dawning spring than I had today.

Before the match and after I have been sorting out the garden furniture, 8 hardwood chairs and a large-ish table, all left out, and all by now covered in mildew as a result of a mild and ludicrously wet season. Cleaning each overly complicated chair took an age but it felt like I was scrubbing away the dank gloom, the winter, the miserable dark green bloom that had lived and crept across everything as the rain refused to let up. Once each chair was free of its green coat I left them in the surprisingly warm sun and went out with youngest plus dog for a good 2 hour walk through the Surrey hills. Got back to find the chairs bleached almost white and warm to the touch, ready to be oiled with an old cloth that smelt of cricket bats, sheds and the past.

Finished up as it was almost dark, youngest still playing on the birthday present not until today put up Crazy Catch, me in a T-Shirt, the faintest hint of the stars just coming out to join the half-moon that had been showing some of its face for an hour beforehand.

Fish and chips for our now 17 year old's 17th birthday today - picked him up from the station after he'd been out and saw him give a hug and a kiss to his girlfriend as they said goodbye - days of wonder and hope.

Looks like another lovely day could be on the cards tomorrow, hope you all enjoy it

AS