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Late March or early April is my estimate

 

A repeat of March 2013 won't be occurring this year

 

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Might have to forward my estimate to next week looks possible in one or two spots down in the SE

 

:)

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In an average year we don't usually see 20 degrees until May and sometimes we have had to wait until June! last year being such a case.

 

However, 2012 delivered 23 degrees in March which was quite exceptional. April 2011 saw 25 degrees breached and many days above 20 degrees, again quite exceptional.

 

However, 20 degrees can easily be reached under anticyclonic conditions by mid April thanks to the heat of the sun, but before then we need a tropical continental source aided by a warm front if we are to see 20 degrees, being this far north makes it quite difficult but much easier for the south of England as the current set up shows. I think 19 degrees will be the absolute maxima on Sunday, notable but nothing exceptional for the time of year.

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No chance of nearing 20C this weekend if that mass of cloud encroaching from the west doesn't clear off. Its been lurking on the satpics all day and is storming us overnight.....

Maybe next week if the charts come off and nuisance cloud stays away, but I think 17-18 is more likely. Still good for early March though.

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If we retain this high pressure for another week or so, it won't be a case of if we will see a 20C in March but when. My guess of 21st might be a bit late!

20C in March is not as common as many seem to think, it's an exception, not a rule. The 2012 spell was exceptional, and even then the highest we saw was around 23C (in Scotland of all places) and that was late in the month. Temperatures down south were slightly lower.Like Summer of 95 said, if cloud gets trapped in the high it could stick around till mid April without seeing 20C.With that being said, I hope it stays as clear as possible, by day but especially by night.
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If it's clear overnight the following day will likely take too long to get over the chill.Even in the south 20C at this time of year requires an exacting set of circumstances such as a mild cloudy night then a rapid clearance the following morning.

Light winds are probably a plus point as a localised foehn effect on downslopes is often implicated.

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Well it was later in the month but March 27th 2012, min 0.5c, max 20.9c, and yes probably a foehn effect!

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You have to have cloud on the upslope, in order to record of Foehn.. totally possible that could happen this time around, however it will happen in a very localised area tucked in at the bottom of the lee mountain/hill side. 

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In an average year we don't usually see 20 degrees until May and sometimes we have had to wait until June! last year being such a case.

 

However, 2012 delivered 23 degrees in March which was quite exceptional. April 2011 saw 25 degrees breached and many days above 20 degrees, again quite exceptional.

 

However, 20 degrees can easily be reached under anticyclonic conditions by mid April thanks to the heat of the sun, but before then we need a tropical continental source aided by a warm front if we are to see 20 degrees, being this far north makes it quite difficult but much easier for the south of England as the current set up shows. I think 19 degrees will be the absolute maxima on Sunday, notable but nothing exceptional for the time of year.

Have you not heard of the fohn effect!!!!!

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The temperature is not helping the landslips, thermal expansion combined with saturated Land is always suspect.

20C widespread and sustained for a week or two would be not good at all, the water table is too high, the rocks are too wet.....

Be careful folks.

Edited by Rustynailer
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Indeed, Heathrow was already 16c at about 10.30am so 20c could be reached. Off to a good start this year. Lets hope we arent using our high pressure quota up. :lol:

 

I know the CFS isnt very reliable but its useful for trends and I have been following it most days and the trend over summer thus far seems to be some sort of higher pressure just to our East and above average temps. :) Certainly nothing disastrous being shown at the moment.

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If anyone called today, you could well be right. Not surprised we are hitting these temperatures so soon. It's a sign of the times and just a continuation on a trend of very mild springs we have had in recent years. Expect a lot of temperature records to tumble in coming springs.

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
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If anyone called today, you could well be right. Not surprised we are hitting these temperatures so soon. It's a sign of the times and just a continuation on a trend of very mild springs we have had in recent years. Expect a lot of temperature records to tumble in coming springs.

You mean like one of the coldest Springs we've ever had last year? Posted Image

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You mean like one of the coldest Springs we've ever had last year? Posted Image

Quite..hardly a trend of very mild Springs considering last year!

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Unnoficial of course, but my station is reading 20.5C right now, and I'm sure there are other locations further in the South East that have locally exceeded 20C.

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If anyone called today, you could well be right. Not surprised we are hitting these temperatures so soon. It's a sign of the times and just a continuation on a trend of very mild springs we have had in recent years. Expect a lot of temperature records to tumble in coming springs.

March really has warmed over the last few decades, it's gone from 5.7C in 1961-90 to 6.6C in 1981-2010 (CET), more than any other month. All the good work done in 2013 looks like being undone by another shockingly mild March (so far). "Mildies" have no right whatsoever to complain, bar last year March has spoilt you rotten.I hope we get a serious cold plunge soon or we could be facing a record breaker, it's got off to the best possible start.
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