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Roger J Smith

March 2014 CET forecasts

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Based on the laws of averages I'll go with 3.4c

 

With regards to the 'tie breaker' I guess  '345 comments' from forum members stating  'what if we had these synoptics in January'.

Edited by stewfox
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I'm going to go with 6.5 degrees - slightly milder than average. I'm seeing a month of two contrasting halves. The first half dominated by low pressure and chilly airmass from the NW with low pressure forced on a SE path across the country with the azores high far to our west- we could pull down a shortlived arctic airmass during the second week. However, a marked change will take place mid month with the azores high ridging NE into southern and central parts of the country with the jet far to the north, so it will turn mild notably mild in places, but then another change to much cooler conditions at the tail end of the month with the azores high forced to retreat away to the west as we see pressure rises to our NW setting us up for a distinctly chilly unsettled April... hope I'm wrong on April.

 

So a mixed month ahead but hopefully a lengthy dry mild period mid month through to the end of the month, but not a precursor to a good April. Our weather often flips in spring.

Edited by damianslaw

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i think we will keep the same patern for a little longer but to a lesser extent, before we change. Less mild though. So 6.7c for me.

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6.4 From cool zonal rather than anticyclonic or Easterly influenced.

Does March see one of the largest jumps from 61-90 to 71-00?

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Below is the March CET in blue, with the 10 year mean in orange/red and the linear trend in black.

 

Posted Image

 

 

The correlation between the February and March CET is +0.41, the second highest of any consecutive monthly pair, so more than most other months, mild Marches tend to follow mild Februaries, and likewise with cold months.

 

February looks like finishing between 6.3 and 5.6C. The average March following Februaries in that range, is 5.9C.

 

The current run without a March below 2C (130 years) is the longest on record. The 2nd longest was 1786-1882 (97 years) and the 3rd longest was from 1675-1747 (73 years)

The current run with the March 10 year mean above 6C (24 years) is the longest on record. The 2nd longest was 1941-1947 (7 years) and the 3rd longest was from 1780-1783 (4 years)

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I will leave mine until tomorrow, I was thinking high but I feel we will get a genuinely out and out cold spell at some point in spring - my guess late March / Early April, whilst I don't doubt BFTV's research wrt Feb - March temp correlation, It is also very unusual to go right through a late Autumn / Winter and Spring without a cold spell, by cold I don't necessarily mean ice days, obviously in late March that is unusual although as last year proved - possible, I would expect a well below average spell at some point before the summer.

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

Nice chart.

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6.2 ty

 

Average month with average wind and rain and sunshine: No climate change for March.

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I was previously thinking we could get a watered-down version of March 1995 (cold zonality mixed with warm anticyclonic interludes) but the Euro high looks like developing too strongly for that, so a March more like 1989 or 1990 looks likely.  Therefore I'm going for quite a warm one- 7.9C.

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As much as I would like to have a cold wintry March especially after such a nasty Winter, I don't think this will be the case.  I will go for a mild 7.5C please.

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Another mild month:

 

7.4C

 

I've a feeling it could potentially be very warm though.

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